Churchill Downs Picks for Saturday, May 23, 2020 – Free Horse Racing Betting Tips

What do the Shawnee Stakes, Tepin Stakes, Blame Stakes, Matt Winn Stakes, and the War Chant Stakes all have in common? All five are happening at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 23, 2020. That’s right. In addition to six maiden, allowance, and claiming races, Churchill Downs is hosting five stakes races that have drawn some of the best competitors—equine and human—to Louisville, Kentucky, this weekend.

The forecast for Louisville says to watch out for scattered thunderstorms. The temps will be in the upper 70s, and the winds slight at about 7 mph.

While I’m covering the five stakes races here, you can always find all the Churchill Downs races at one of our recommended horse racing sportsbooks.

Post time for the first race at Churchill Downs for Saturday is 1 PM (EDT). Here are my picks, tips, and predictions.

The moneyline odds might suggest that this is a race between two horses and a herd of also-rans, but that is not the case. All of these thoroughbreds have solid records, and the jockeys aboard them are all top flight. Still, I’m not going to argue with the moneyline here—I’m going to stick with the 4/5 favorite, Dunbar Road, piloted by veteran Jose Ortiz. With six money finishes out of seven career starts—four of them wins—this four-year-old filly should get the job done.

For those looking for longer odds and better paydays, I like Vault at 10/1, with Joel Rosario in the irons. This filly moneyed in ten of her 14 career starts, six of them wins. And Rosario has the best wins/WPS stats in this field.

Also Eligibles:

I’m sticking with the 3/1 favorite, Alms, with Paco Lopez aboard. Why? Even in a field of fillies with impressive records, Alms stands out: four career starts, four money finishes, all four of them wins. It certainly helps that Lopez has the highest wins/WPS stats in this race.

For the less risk-averse among us, Shaun Bridgmohan’s mount, Dominga, is an undervalued prospect at 15/1. With four money finishes in five career starts—three of them wins—this filly could make it happen.

I like the second-favored (9/2) in this race, Global Campaign, ridden by Joel Ortiz. This four-year-old colt has five money finishes out of six career starts, with four of those wins. 

Race 9 Tip

The biggest risk I’d take in this race is on the 10/1 Diamond King with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. This five-year-old has 18 career starts, 13 of them money finishes with six of those wins. In this field, I’d say that makes him slightly undervalued.

You’re unlikely to find this many Kentucky Derby hopefuls in one race that isn’t the Kentucky Derby. Can you identify them all? While you’re thinking about that, I’m going to make a prediction: The 5/2 favorite, Maxfield, with Jose Ortiz in the irons, will take this race. Maxfield, of course, has two career starts, both of which he won.

World-class jockeys don’t come cheap, so you have to wonder why the best (stats-wise) jockey in this race is aboard one of the longest-odds horses. I’m talking about Rafael Bejarano aboard the 20/1 Flap Jack. Flap Jack has five career starts, with two money finishes, one of which was a win. Not a bad record, if this were any other race. Still, he’s worth a modest wager, I think.

I like the second-favored (9/2) Hieronymus, ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. With four money finishes (all wins) in five career starts, this horse belongs in the winner’s circle, and he knows it.

Not a longshot by any means, but I think Pixelate is a sleeper here at 6/1. This colt has had seven career starts and has moneyed in all seven of them, two of which were wins. There’s a reason veteran jockey Joel Rosario is aboard. Worth a flyer.

For additional horse racing picks, head to our horse racing betting blog here.