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Churchill Downs Picks for Saturday, May 23, 2020 – Free Horse Racing Betting Tips

| May 23, 2020 12:01 am PDT
Churchill Downs Picks 5/23

What do the Shawnee Stakes, Tepin Stakes, Blame Stakes, Matt Winn Stakes, and the War Chant Stakes all have in common? All five are happening at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 23, 2020. That’s right. In addition to six maiden, allowance, and claiming races, Churchill Downs is hosting five stakes races that have drawn some of the best competitors—equine and human—to Louisville, Kentucky, this weekend.

The forecast for Louisville says to watch out for scattered thunderstorms. The temps will be in the upper 70s, and the winds slight at about 7 mph.

While I’m covering the five stakes races here, you can always find all the Churchill Downs races at one of our recommended horse racing sportsbooks.

Post time for the first race at Churchill Downs for Saturday is 1 PM (EDT). Here are my picks, tips, and predictions.

RACE 7 – Shawnee Stakes

  • Post Time: 4:08 PM
  • Purse: $100,000
  • Type: STAKES
  • Distance: 1-1/16 miles
  • Conditions: Fillies And Mares, Four Years Old And Upward

Race 7 Runners and Odds Forecast

  • 1 Moonlit Garden, T Gaffalione, 15/1
  • 2 Chocolate Kisses, D Carroll, 15/1
  • 3 Awe Emma, J K Court, 12/1
  • 4 Dunbar Road, J L Ortiz, 4/5
  • 5 Another Broad, J R Velazquez, 10/1
  • 6 Vault, J Rosario, 10/1
  • 7 Flower Party, S Bridgmohan, 30/1
  • 8 She’s a Julie, R Santana, Jr., 2/1

Race 7 Prediction and Pick

The moneyline odds might suggest that this is a race between two horses and a herd of also-rans, but that is not the case. All of these thoroughbreds have solid records, and the jockeys aboard them are all top flight. Still, I’m not going to argue with the moneyline here—I’m going to stick with the 4/5 favorite, Dunbar Road, piloted by veteran Jose Ortiz. With six money finishes out of seven career starts—four of them wins—this four-year-old filly should get the job done.

Race 7 Tip

For those looking for longer odds and better paydays, I like Vault at 10/1, with Joel Rosario in the irons. This filly moneyed in ten of her 14 career starts, six of them wins. And Rosario has the best wins/WPS stats in this field.

Pick
  • Dunbar Road
    4/5

RACE 8 – Tepin Stakes

  • Post Time: 4:40 PM
  • Purse: $100,000
  • Type: STAKES
  • Distance: 1 mile (turf)
  • Conditions: For Fillies, Three Years Old

Race 8 Runners and Odds Forecast

  • 1 Oxum Power, J D Ramos, 50/1
  • 2 Abscond, T Gaffalione, 8/1
  • 3 Walk In Marrakesh, J L Ortiz, 10/1
  • 4 Dominga, S Bridgmohan, 15/1
  • 5 Hendy Woods, SCRATCHED
  • 6 In Good Spirits, M Mena, 15/1
  • 7 Outburst, J Castellano, 5/1
  • 8 Jezebel’s Kitten, F Geroux, 15/1
  • 9 Sharing, M Franco, 3/1
  • 10 Pass the Plate, J R Leparoux, 20/1
  • 11 Heir of Light, SCRATCHED
  • 12 Moral Reasoning, J Rosario, 12/1
  • 13 Queen of God, J Talamo, 30/1
  • 14 Alms, P Lopez, 3/1

Also Eligibles:

  • 15 Eve of War, J R Velazquez, 12/1

Race 8 Prediction and Pick

I’m sticking with the 3/1 favorite, Alms, with Paco Lopez aboard. Why? Even in a field of fillies with impressive records, Alms stands out: four career starts, four money finishes, all four of them wins. It certainly helps that Lopez has the highest wins/WPS stats in this race.

Race 8 Tip

For the less risk-averse among us, Shaun Bridgmohan’s mount, Dominga, is an undervalued prospect at 15/1. With four money finishes in five career starts—three of them wins—this filly could make it happen.

Pick
  • Alms
    3/1

RACE 9 – Blame Stakes

  • Post Time: 5:12 PM
  • Purse: $100,000
  • Type: STAKES
  • Distance: 1 mile
  • Conditions: For Four Year Olds And Upward

Race 9 Runners and Odds Forecast

  • 1 Long Range Toddy, J K Court, 20/1
  • 2 Bourbon Resolution, SCRATCHED
  • 3 Global Campaign, J L Ortiz, 9/2
  • 4 Alwaysmining, M Franco, 20/1
  • 5 Everfast, J Rosario, 30/1
  • 6 Backyard Heaven, T Gaffalione, 6/1
  • 7 Silver Dust, A Beschizza, 8/1
  • 8 Owendale, F Geroux, 3/1
  • 9 Extrordinary Jerry, J Castellano, 12/1
  • 10 Snapper Sinclair, J R Leparoux, 15/1
  • 11 American Anthem, SCRATCHED
  • 12 Discreet Lover, J Bisono, 30/1
  • 13 Mr. Money, G Saez, 5/1
  • 14 Diamond King, K Carmouche, 10/1

Race 9 Prediction and Pick

I like the second-favored (9/2) in this race, Global Campaign, ridden by Joel Ortiz. This four-year-old colt has five money finishes out of six career starts, with four of those wins. 

Race 9 Tip

The biggest risk I’d take in this race is on the 10/1 Diamond King with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. This five-year-old has 18 career starts, 13 of them money finishes with six of those wins. In this field, I’d say that makes him slightly undervalued.

Pick
  • Global Campaign
    9/2

RACE 10 – Matt Winn Stakes (Grade III)

  • Post Time: 5:44 PM
  • Purse: $150,000
  • Type: STAKES
  • Distance: 1-1/16 miles
  • Conditions: For Three Year Olds

Race 10 Runners and Odds Forecast

  • 1 Mystic Guide, SCRATCHED
  • 2 Pneumatic, R Santana, Jr., 4/1
  • 3 Informative, J Bisono, 20/1
  • 4 Celtic Striker, M Franco, 20/1
  • 5 Flap Jack, R Bejarano, 20/1
  • 6 Ny Traffic, P Lopez, 10/1
  • 7 Necker Island, T Gaffalione, 15/1
  • 8 Crypto Cash, SCRATCHED
  • 9 Shake Some Action, J Castellano, 12/1
  • 10 Maxfield, J L Ortiz, 5/2
  • 11 Attachment Rate, J R Velazquez, 4/1
  • 12 Major Fed, J Rosario, 5/1

Race 10 Prediction and Pick

You’re unlikely to find this many Kentucky Derby hopefuls in one race that isn’t the Kentucky Derby. Can you identify them all? While you’re thinking about that, I’m going to make a prediction: The 5/2 favorite, Maxfield, with Jose Ortiz in the irons, will take this race. Maxfield, of course, has two career starts, both of which he won.

Race 10 Tip

World-class jockeys don’t come cheap, so you have to wonder why the best (stats-wise) jockey in this race is aboard one of the longest-odds horses. I’m talking about Rafael Bejarano aboard the 20/1 Flap Jack. Flap Jack has five career starts, with two money finishes, one of which was a win. Not a bad record, if this were any other race. Still, he’s worth a modest wager, I think.

Pick
  • Maxfield
    5/2

RACE 11 – War Chant Stakes

  • Post Time: 6:16 PM
  • Purse: $100,000
  • Type: STAKES
  • Distance: 1 mile (turf)
  • Conditions: For Three Years Olds

Race 11 Runners and Odds Forecast

  • 1 South Bend, J R Leparoux, 12/1
  • 2 Bodecream, D L Parker, 12/1
  • 3 Island Commish, P Lopez, 12/1
  • 4 Vanzzy, SCRATCHED
  • 5 Field Pass, J L Ortiz, 4/1
  • 6 Hieronymus, S Bridgmohan, 9/2
  • 7 Bama Breeze, C J Lanerie, 30/1
  • 8 Liam’s Pride, D Cohen, 30/1
  • 9 Smooth Like Strait, J R Velazquez, 5/1
  • 10 Shared Sense, F Geroux, 15/1
  • 11 Street Ready, C Landeros, 15/1
  • 12 Pixelate, J Rosario, 6/1
  • 13 Billy Batts, R Santana, Jr., 5/1
  • 14 Fenwick Station, T Gaffalione, 50/1

Race 11 Prediction and Pick

I like the second-favored (9/2) Hieronymus, ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. With four money finishes (all wins) in five career starts, this horse belongs in the winner’s circle, and he knows it.

Race 11 Tip

Not a longshot by any means, but I think Pixelate is a sleeper here at 6/1. This colt has had seven career starts and has moneyed in all seven of them, two of which were wins. There’s a reason veteran jockey Joel Rosario is aboard. Worth a flyer.

Pick
  • Hieronymus
    9/2

For additional horse racing picks, head to our horse racing betting blog here.

J.W. Paine

J.W. Paine is one of the most experienced writers at GamblingSites.com. He's written for television and the printed media, and is a published novelist (as Tom Elliott).

Paine loves writing about Las Vegas nearly as much he loves living here. An experienced gambler, he's especially familiar with thoroughbred horseracing, poker, blackjack, and slots.

More Posts by J.W. Contact J.W.

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