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Chelsea vs. Liverpool – Latest Betting Odds, Analysis, and Free Pick

| September 28, 2018 12:00 am PDT
Chelsea vs Liverpool English Premier League

I’ve always thought how funny it is when the draw for the FA Cup or the Carabao Cup is such that two teams have to play each other twice in a matter of days. We’re seeing an early example of that this season.

Liverpool hosted Chelsea on Wednesday for the League Cup, and the two clubs will play again on Saturday. This time,it’s an English Premier League fixture, and it’s a home game for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues were able to win the first clash after a sublime individual goal by Hazard. This ended Liverpool’s perfect record since the start of the season, but I don’t think Jurgen Klopp and the supporters will be too disappointed.

I feel that they have a bigger fish to fry this season. The main ambitions of the club are to win either the English Premier League or the UEFA Champions League, or even both. This is why the Saturday game will be way more important for Liverpool.

In fact, that’s the case with Chelsea, too. The League Cup has become a tournament in which clubs from such a caliber give a chance to the players that don’t receive enough playing time in other competitions. Youngsters, athletes returning from an injury, or back-up players often have the opportunity to shine in the Carabao Cup.

This is why we see unusual lineups, but I’m certain that both managers will send their best for the clash on Saturday. It will be an interesting match and another opportunity to make some cash. Let’s check the odds offered by the best soccer gambling sites online.

Chelsea vs. Liverpool Betting Odds

Here are the most popular betting markets offered for this match.

Chelsea to Win2.86
Liverpool to Win2.43
Over 2.75 Goals1.85
Under 2.75 Goals1.98

Both teams had a strong start of the season and are among the favorites in the English Premier League. Still, both have shown some weaknesses or at least signs of weaknesses so far. I feel that the odds for Liverpool are shorter because Chelsea’s problems are more obvious.

On top of that, the Reds have looked like the side that has the biggest chance to actually challenge Manchester City for the title. This explains why Liverpool is the slight favorite in this match, despite Chelsea’s home advantage.

As for the goals market, I am a bit surprised, to be honest. Sure, Liverpool has a breathtaking attacking trio, while Hazard is scoring for fun. However, both teams rely strongly on their defense to win points, too.

If you add the fact that matches between top teams are often a cagey affair, I would’ve expected the line to be set at 2.5 goals instead of 2.75, or at least the odds to be reversed. This probably opens the door for a solid betting opportunity, but let’s explore both teams before making a final pick.


A lot of people wondered what would happen to Chelsea after the chaotic summer. Conte was gone, but it took some time, which prevented the new manager Maurizio Sarri from taking over early enough to prepare his team.

And yet, the side looks rejuvenated. Chelsea won the first five games of the season and was only stopped recently by West Ham. A spirited performance by the Hammers was enough to get a point from their London rival.

In fact, the underdogs could’ve won the game, but a couple of missed opportunities prevented them from a complete surprise.

I think this game exposed Chelsea’s biggest issue – the side relies too much on Eden Hazard up front.

Hazard is basically making this Chelsea team tick at the moment. The other creative players like Willian and Pedro are not doing enough, while Sarri doesn’t have a striker that could provide 25-30 goals per season.

At the start of the season, Alvaro Morata looked rejuvenated, but his form has since declined rapidly. Olivier Giroud is doing much better up front, and Hazard likes playing with him. He even called him the world’s best target man.

I’m inclined to agree with that, but Chelsea needs at least one more striker that is more clinical. As it stands, Morata in his current form is rather useless, while Giroud is not the typical goal scorer. He can find the net, of course, but this is not his main strength.

As a result, Chelsea suffers when Hazard is isolated, as West Ham managed to do. The rest of the offensive players are not on the same level, which will be an issue as the season progresses.

In fact, this is the main reason I don’t see a title contender in the current Chelsea squad. If Alvaro Morata somehow improves and returns to his best days, he and Giroud could provide enough goals for the team to actually fight for the English Premier League, but I can’t see it happening.

On the other side of the pitch, I have some doubts as well. Chelsea’s defense looked solid for most of the games. However, once it met a potent attacking team like Arsenal, it conceded twice and could’ve allowed a couple more with ease. The lack of confidence in the Gunners saved the day.

Chelsea was unconvincing against West Ham as well. Michail Antonio and Andriy Yarmolenko both had clear-cut chances to score.

The problem for the Blues is related to their defending against counter-attacking soccer.

Both the Hammers and Arsenal created their opportunities when they had enough space to use the speed of their forward.

If Maurizio Sarri wants to have a chance against Liverpool, he has to prevent any chances of counters. The likes of Mane, Salah, and Firmino can be absolutely devastating in such a scenario, so I expect the Italian to play it safe in this match.


Jurgen Klopp and his men had won the first seven games of the season, in all tournaments, until this Wednesday. Everything seems to be clicking for Liverpool right now.

The new goalkeeper Alisson and the defense are keeping clean sheet after clean sheet, the midfield is working hard to protect the back four and press the opponent at the same time, while the attacking trio is scoring goals for fun.

And yet, you could see the cracks every now and then. The games against Crystal Palace, Brighton, and Leicester were tougher than expected, while the defense didn’t look that strong against sides like PSG and Chelsea.

The good news for Jurgen Klopp is that his team now looks capable of winning games that were drawn in the past. Even when not at its best, Liverpool found a way to win – until the Carabao Cup clash against Chelsea, at least.

Such a resilience will be crucial if the side is going to challenge for the biggest trophies possible. I think the main reason behind it is the improved defense of Liverpool. Despite a stupid error against Leicester, Alisson was an instant upgrade as a goalkeeper, while Joe Gomez and Virgil Van Dijk have built a solid relationship in the heart of the defense.

The question is if the improvement would be enough to actually catch Manchester City. I’m not quite certain, but the confidence of this team and the supporters is growing by the minute.

Everyone around Liverpool believes in the team, which is a powerful force.

The good news for Chelsea is that the win on Wednesday shook that a bit, and it could help the Blues in the Premier League game this weekend.

Another important factor is that Van Dijk has a minor rib injury. The defender should be back for the game against Chelsea, though.

Prediction and Betting Pick

As a typical clash between top teams, this game is hard to predict. I expect a tight affair that might be decided by a single mistake or two.

The big question is if Maurizio Sarri manages to find a way to prevent Liverpool from playing on the counter. If the EPL leaders are forced to play at a slower pace, this will be in Chelsea’s favor. I feel that the manager will find a way to achieve this goal.

Still, the attacking line of Liverpool is good enough to score under any circumstances, so it’s hard for me to pick a winner. I will avoid the match result market and the Asian handicaps for that reason.

Where I can see some value is the goals market. I expect Chelsea to play it safe in this match, while the Blues have some issues up front. This is why I could easily see a low-scoring game, something in the lines of 1-1 or a 1-0 for either team.

The odds of 1.98 for under 2.75 seem like a solid opportunity. If there are two or fewer goals, you get a solid win, and if the teams find the net three times, you still get half of your stake back. This would be my final pick.

PICKUnder 2.75 Goals1.98

Final Words

I think this game will be crucial for both teams. A win here would cement Liverpool’s challenge for the title and would make the Reds a genuine favorite for the EPL crown, alongside Manchester City.

The same can be said about Chelsea. No one expected the Blues to fight for the title, but they’ve looked strong since the start of the season.

If they manage to beat Liverpool, it could boost the confidence of the squad to a point where it could actually become a part of the title chase.

Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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