Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol Betting Guide with Odds and Picks

| March 29, 2022 12:04 pm PDT
Boxing gloves graphic, Canelo (Mexican flag behind him) Bivol (Russian flag behind him)

It’s time to discuss betting on Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol.

The big one, billed Legacy is Earned, goes down at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on May 7th. This Cinco de Mayo weekend spectacular is just about the most talked-about fight in boxing right now. But I have my views on who wins between Canelo and Bivol.

I’ve been trawling odds for Canelo vs. Bivol on the best boxing betting sites. I’ll be running through those with you if you plan to wager on Canelo-Bivol. Furthermore, I’ll be making predictions for Canelo’s next fight and providing a few tips on making the best picks for the big one.

So, let’s start with the latest Canelo vs. Bivol betting line to see what the bookies anticipate ahead of this WBA light heavyweight showdown.

Latest Odds for Canelo vs. Bivol

Canelo to Win-400
Bivol to Win+300
Canelo and Bivol collage

There are fewer sportsbooks worth looking at right now than BetUS.

I’ve taken the odds above from their sportsbook, which tends to be one of my go-to sites when betting on boxing. As you can see from the betting odds for Canelo vs. Bivol, the Mexican is a cast-iron favorite, despite having fought at light heavyweight just once before.

The odds for Canelo to beat Bivol are -400. A successful $400 bet on Alvarez will return a $100 profit. Is that a little too steep for your liking? I can see why placing wagers for Canelo to win against Bivol would come with some trepidation. 

At +300, the odds for Bivol to beat Canelo look pretty good.

The Russian is unlikely to have a lot of support in Vegas on Cinco de Mayo weekend. The arena will be packed with fans of the undisputed super-middleweight champion, Alvarez. Furthermore, the conflict in Ukraine could mean that the Russian will be in for a very tough night all around.

Canelo vs. Bivol Tale of the Tape

Before I get into my predictions for Canelo vs. Bivol, let’s check out the tale of the tape for these two warriors. 

Canelo Tale of the Tape Bivol
57-1-2 Record 19-0-11
57 Victories 19
1 Defeats 0
39 Knockouts 11
2 Drawn 0
60 Total Bouts 19
31 Age 31
5’7.5″ Height 6’0″
70.5″ Reach 72”
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
Mexico Nationality Russia

As you can see, Alvarez comes into this fight with obvious disadvantages in size. The plucky Guadalajararian has overcome the challenge of bigger men in the past. Guys like Callum Smith and Sergey Kovalev — albeit a faded version of the “Krusher” — have been put away by world boxing’s pound-for-pound number one in recent times. 

Bivol will be looking to use his lengthy frame to evade punishment. But although he has 4.5 inches in height, his reach is just 1.5 inches greater. If Bivol cannot keep the Mexican from applying pressure and finding his groove, he could be in major trouble.

The champion is unbeaten as a professional. Could that be about to end on May 7? Let’s move on to my predictions for Canelo vs. Bivol.

Canelo vs. Bivol Predictions

  • Winner: Canelo Alvarez
  • Method of Victory: Decision
Canelo Alvarez

It’s worth pinning down my predictions before getting to my betting picks for the Canelo vs. Bivol fight.

As you can see, I believe Canelo will beat Bivol on points. Although he is nowhere near a natural light heavyweight, he has been in the form of his life at super-middleweight against guys close to 175-pounds.

Although my predictions for Canelo vs. Bivol are leaning toward a win for the challenger, I don’t think it will be the easiest fight of his career. The Russian might not carry significant stopping power, but he does have the fundamentals to trouble his opponent. 

Canelo has the better resume and is the best on the planet, for want of a better phrase. I would be more concerned for the flame-haired icon if he were matched up with Artur Beterbiev. Bivol is a guy that he can beat.

We wouldn’t be talking about bets for the Canelo vs. Bivol fight if he didn’t think he could. 

Betting Picks for Canelo vs. Bivol

  • Canelo to Win (-400)
  • Canelo to Win by Decision (TBC)
  • Fight to Go Over 9.5 Rounds (TBC)

There will be many top bets for Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol, but as things stand, I can’t share odds for the best Canelo vs. Bivol props with you.

The reason why is that they are yet to hit the board. But fear not, as I will be back with a piece dedicated to the top prop bets for the fight at a later date. I’ll explain more about that later.

For now, Canelo’s odds to beat Bivol are a little questionable at -400. There is a chance that Bivol could beat Alvarez. But the odds of Canelo losing — or, to be more candid, Bivol’s odds for winning — are not worth the risk. 

I understand if my phrasing seems a little off. What I’m getting at here, without spelling it out, is that Canelo should have the backing of the judges in a close fight. I don’t see him knocking out Bivol or vice versa. This strongly suggests that we could end up in a fight that goes the distance. 

Gamblers in Las Vegas love Canelo just as much as he loves “Sin City.” He’s had a few hairy moments over the years in fights but has managed to avoid defeat. With a ferocious crowd behind him, and the ongoing crisis in Russia not helping Bivol, it’s hard to see how the champ retains his title if it goes the distance. 

You can bet Canelo will beat Bivol at -400 now with MyBookie, which offers the same odds as BetUS. You can also check out their odds for Bivol to beat Canelo if you are leaning that way. 

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Why Canelo Will Beat Bivol

Again, if you’re betting on Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol and are not feeling the moneyline, I’ll be back with more bets. But until then, I’d like to further expand on why you should bet Canelo to win by decision when those Canelo-Bivol prop markets open.

You’ll certainly get more value for picking the method of victory, but don’t expect his odds to be -400 come fight night. In other words, those are probably the best you will get, so perhaps think about taking them now. 

So, why does Canelo beat Bivol? As I alluded to earlier, The Ring Magazine pound-for-pound number one is not a fighter afraid of taking risks as long as those risks have been calculated with a probable result in his favor.

Eddy Reynoso and the gang would not have let their fighter anywhere near Bivol if they thought their man had little chance of pulling the victory off.

He has beaten a depleted Sergey Kovalev at light heavyweight to win a title at 175-pounds, so there is very little to gain here other than another strap in that weight class.

Bivol is a very good boxer who has managed to avoid defeat so far. However, when his resume is compared to Canelo’s, it’s pretty weak. This will be the toughest fight of his career in the paid ranks, and the pressure on him to deliver is at a substantial level.

How Canelo Beats Bivol

I doubt we will see many adjustments from the fundamental gameplans Canelo used to defeat the likes of Caleb Plant and Billy Joe Saunders.

Bivol is not a fighter that offers blistering knockout power. Nor does he tend to take many risks. Therefore, Canelo will be confident of getting into range and landing shots that, little by little, break the Russian down. 

The champion will be looking to outbox Canelo from behind a reliable jab. But there’s no way that I can see him causing sufficient damage to his man unless he mixes things up and tries to push back. That, of course, is not natural to Bivol and opens up too many gates for the Mexican to burst through. 


My predictions for Canelo vs. Bivol are pretty plain. It should be evident by the third round running the show, with the four-weight world champion dominating from the midway point of the bout.

Canelo might lose a couple of rounds here or there. But for the most part, it should be a very clean and convincing win for the best boxer on the planet.

More Advice for Betting on Canelo vs. Bivol 

Cino de Mayo graphic

To be completely open, there’s not much Canelo vs. Bivol betting advice left to share with you. 

If you are undecided on who to bet on, I’d recommend reading back through this preview. If you’re still at sixes and sevens, our boxing betting strategy could be a source of comfort. This will provide you with some expert tips that could elucidate some of the stuff above that doesn’t make sense to you at this point. 

Aside from that, make sure to bet smartly on this one. Although it’s Cinco de Mayo weekend, I don’t see any point in going crazy with exotic bets!

I will be back with the best prop bets for Canelo vs. Bivol at a later date but don’t be wasting your money on silly wagers when this fight is more than likely going to be a cruise to the scorecards if you will. 

Bookmark our blog for betting on boxing to get those props. Furthermore, you will find more odds, bets, and advice for gambling on upcoming fights!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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