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Bundesliga Betting Preview for the 2021/22 Season

| August 10, 2021 10:10 am PDT

It’s the same story about this time every year.

Bundesliga fans try to work out whether Bayern Munich can be stopped from winning yet another league title. Dortmund and RB Leipzig would seem to have the best chance of shaking up German soccer in 2021/22 – but is there any way Die Roten can be stopped?

There has been a lot of changes since the end of last season in the Bundesliga. So, pre-season expectations and hopes across the German top-flight will be high. But there are also plenty of questions to be answered about the upcoming campaign.

Will Julian Nagelsmann keep Bayern as the dominant force? Could Erling Haaland’s decision to stay at Dortmund be the difference between a title challenge and another disappointing season? Will any of the chasing pack surprise everyone and ruin Bayern’s dreams of a tenth consecutive title?

I will answer all of these questions and look at some of the other stories and factors that will play a big part in the Bundesliga for the 2021/22 season. Read on to discover what you need to know if you are thinking of betting on German soccer this season.

Unstoppable Bayern?

Bayern has always been a big deal when it comes to German soccer. Unlike PSG or Manchester City, it has always been a successful club – and the biggest in the country.

But since the money involved in the Champions League became astronomical, Bayern has completely dominated and is now looking to keep that going with the help of a new head coach.

Bundesliga Titles Since the Turn of the Century

  • Bayern Munich – 15
  • Borussia Dortmund – 3
  • Werder Bremen – 1
  • Stuttgart – 1
  • Wolfsburg – 1

The price for backing Bayern to rack up another league title this season is 1.22 with Betway. That isn’t particularly enticing, and Dortmund and RB Leipzig are next on the list at 8.00 and 10.00, respectively.

With Bayern’s financial muscle usually allowing it to hoover up all the top talent in the country, it is a brave person that takes the leap of faith to back anyone else.

Haaland Backing Dortmund…For Now

Erling Haaland seems content to remain at Dortmund for another season after he and his agent toured around Europe last season when it seemed as though the Norwegian striker was on the lookout for a move. Things would have been much different if Champions League qualification had not been won – but for now, Dortmund retains its most fearsome asset.

But Haaland will have to make do without Jadon Sancho, whose transfer to Manchester United was completed just after the Euros. Sancho is an accomplished goal scorer in his own right, but Haaland will miss the contribution the England attacker made to his own goal tally. Sancho was instrumental in much of Haaland’s success, and he will now have to find another partner willing to play that role. Dortmund head coach Marco Rose will be hoping that new winger Donyell Malen will be the perfect fit.

Dortmund hasn’t done much business apart from bringing in Malen, so we can probably expect Gio Reyna to be more involved this season. Stars such as Mats Hummels, Marco Reus, and Alex Witsel are all in their 30s now, so Rose must put his faith in those ‘veterans’ to step up and provide a challenge to Bayern. Haaland – as ever – is the most important factor, though. If he doesn’t have a good season, then Dortmund will not be Bundesliga champions in May.

New Faces Aiming to Make a Difference

There will be some very familiar faces in the Bundesliga this season, but they might not be popping up where we have become accustomed to seeing them. Seven of the top eight clubs have new head coaches this year, with nearly all of them doing the job for another club in the German top-flight last season.

In many cases, the new arrival was known long before the end of the season. That resulted in some of the clubs experiencing dips in form that affected the European competition – if any – they will be competing for in the upcoming campaign.

Marco Rose announcing that he would leave Monchengladbach to take the reins at Dortmund was the best example. The Foals were looking good for the Champions League when the news broke in February but ended up down in 8th at the end of the season.

Adi Hutter takes over at Gladbach after taking Eintracht Frankfurt to fifth last time – and he will be looking forward to working with the striking talents of Plea and Thuram. There will be no European distraction to deal with either, so a finish higher up the table will be expected.

Oliver Glasner is the man who takes over at Frankfurt in what initially seems like a strange move. The Austrian oversaw an excellent season at Wolfsburg that ended in a top-four finish, while his new club will only be competing in the Europa League. But he may have liked the idea of being in charge of an established club with a fervent fan base and a team with potential, rather than staying at a club that does not draw the same passionate support.

All of these clubs will be aiming to take the fourth Champions League place behind Bayern, Dortmund, and Leipzig (in whatever order they finish). The new head coach that can hit the ground running as early as possible will hold the advantage there.

Can Nagelsmann Perform on the Biggest Stage of All?

Julian Nagelsmann is only 34, a year younger than his keeper Manuel Neuer, and will now be taking on the biggest job of his career so far. After Hansi Flick failed to see eye to eye with those at the top at Bayern, he decided to leave, allowing the most promising young coach in European soccer to take over.

Nagelsmann has been a revelation at Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig, taking the former to the Champions League and the latter to the upper reaches of the Bundesliga on a regular basis. But, for all the plaudits, this job is different.

Julian Nagelsmann Record
Team Games Win Draw Loss Win %
Hoffenheim 136 55 43 38 40.44
RB Leipzig 95 54 22 19 56.84

Nagelsmann was able to mold a young squad of up-and-coming players at both his previous clubs but will now have to deal with the all-encompassing duties of a Bayern head coach. Not only will he have to please the hardcore support used to dominating the Bundesliga and winning trophies in Europe, but he must also learn to work with seasoned professionals who hold a lot of sway in the everyday goings-on at Bayern. The Neuer mentioned above, as well as Thomas Mueller and Robert Lewandowski, expect to be heard when it comes to club matters – and that will be a new experience for Nagelsmann.

He will also need to placate the ‘second tier’ of players at the club that have already voiced their displeasure at the financial package that convinced Leroy Sane to leave Manchester City. The likes of Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry will want to feel like they are just as highly valued, and that kind of diplomacy with the squad has not been part of Nagelsmann’s job description before. If a few results don’t go quite as planned at the start of the season, it will be interesting to see whether he retains the support of the squad.

Bundesliga Betting Options

I’ve already mentioned that I don’t think betting on Bayern Munich to win the Bundesliga is a wager worth taking. That’s not because I don’t think the Bavarian club won’t win a tenth consecutive title – with the players at its disposal, that is exactly what should happen this season. But I just don’t think there is much value in the very short odds on the market.

But there are some other options for betting on the Bundesliga that are far more interesting. One example is the outright winner without Bayern market. It is similar to the bet available concerning France’s Ligue 1 with a lot of bookmakers. As Bayern is expected to win the trophy, you are essentially betting on who will finish in second. Here’s how Betway has that market looking at the moment.

Borussia Dortmund1.72
RB Leipzig3.50
Bayer Leverkusen11.00
Borussia Monchengladbach15.00
Wolfsburg21.00
Eintracht Frankfurt34.00

Understandably, Haaland’s Dortmund is the favorite here, with a few of the clubs who enjoyed success last season – Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt – discounted for the upcoming season. It seems as though the bookies also don’t fancy RB Leipzig being able to deal with the departure of its head coach and star defender Dayot Upamecano.

But Leipzig has recruited from within by bringing in highly regarded US coach Jesse Marsch from sister club RB Salzburg. He will be used to the way the club is operated and what is expected from him and his players. The German Bundesliga is tougher than the Austrian version, but Leipzig follows the same model, which could mean that the only club to bring in a new head coach from outside the league could be more settled than any of the others who have been on the move this summer.

The main race for second is between Leipzig and Dortmund – and Haaland staying in Germany has obviously convinced many bookmakers that Dortmund holds the upper hand. But I feel that he will miss Sancho more than expected, and Leipzig also has its own special card to play in the signing of Andre Silva. RB clubs don’t usually buy players who are already so established, but Silva could make all the difference.

The Portuguese striker ended up the top goalscorer behind Lewandowski last season and was sensational for Frankfurt throughout. Leipzig, for all its talent and attacking prowess through the midfield, never replaced Timo Werner as an out-and-out striker – and now has a player that is proven in the league and on the world stage. He could be the difference between second and third.

Who Will Win the Bundesliga in 2021/22?

As a neutral when it comes to the Bundesliga, I attempt to convince myself that someone other than Bayern will end up on top every year. Even though there have been moments in the last few seasons when it looked as if that might happen – including the poor run of form before Niko Kovac was sacked as head coach – Die Roten has always prevailed.

It is difficult to see that trend changing this season, to be honest. There is a lot of talent in both the Dortmund and Leipzig squads, but not enough to keep the pressure on for an entire season, in my opinion.

Bayern won the title by seven points last season, and I can see one of the other big clubs pushing it all the way until the end. But there are many interesting storylines to follow in Germany this year – particularly the way all the new head coaches get on – so the Bundesliga will still be worth keeping a close eye on, even if Bayern ends up winning a remarkable ten in a row.

Dan Roberts

Dan Roberts is an experienced freelance writer specialising in sports and sports betting. He is particularly knowledgeable about world soccer, but also writes about football, basketball and cricket.

As a fan of Nottingham Forest, New York Knicks, Minnesota Vikings and New York Mets, Dan has not had much to celebrate recently.

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