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Betting on When the Next UK General Election Will Happen – Is 2024 a Little Too Late?

| May 13, 2020 6:21 am PDT
Betting on When the Next UK General Election Will Happen

If history has taught us anything, it is that a lot can change in British politics in a very short space of time.

And while the next UK general election odds might point towards the ruling Conservative Party having things on their terms for quite some time, there are some who might disagree with that sentiment.

As things stand, ruling Prime Minister Boris Johnson has watched his popularity yo-yo from March to May. This was on account of how he first handled the spread of the global health crisis when it hit the UK, his hospitalization in early April, and the arrival of his newborn boy later that same month.

In early May, Johnson was heavily criticized for what was widely received as an ambiguous message to the public in a state address on easing the lockdown.

With economic uncertainty, the Brexit debacle still up in the air, and the emergence of new Labour leader Keir Starmer as a voice of reason, could a general election happen well before 2024? Or will Johnson and the Conservatives steady the ship and build towards another winning run four years from now?

I’ve presented my thoughts below to help you with betting on when the next UK general election will happen.

Year of Next UK General Election Odds

2024 or Later-175
2023+275
2022+1000
2021+1000
2020+2500

The odds above come courtesy of 10Bet, one of our leading political betting sites. 

Unsurprisingly, their odds favor the next UK general election happening in 2024 or later. As things stand, this seems the most likely scenario, meaning the bookies have this one pretty much spot on.

But at the danger of repeating myself, things do tend to move very quickly in politics. There are myriad factors that could stand in the way of the Conservatives yielding undisputed power until then.

The Next UK General Election Is Targeted for 2024

The odds above indicate that the next United Kingdom general election, which will be the 58th in the history of the UK, is likely to happen in 2024.

In adherence to the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act of 2011, it is scheduled for Thursday, May 2, 2024, but could be extended to December 2024 if parties wanted it to happen five years from the date of 2019’s general election.

The Fixed-Term Parliaments Act was introduced to set a fixed election date for UK general elections and dictates that subsequent general elections should be held on the first Thursday in May following the previous election.

The British Queen is required to give the go-ahead for the Prime Minister to dissolve the government under this act. This means that the House of Commons — if a vote of a two-thirds supermajority is attained — can dissolve parliament before the full extent of its five-year term.

Additionally, the dissolving of parliament is also allowed in the event of a vote of no confidence by a simple majority.

The UK has a First Past the Post system in place, which will apply to the next election unless there are radical changes to the voting system introduced before an election can take place. This would be highly unlikely, however.

So a UK General Election Could Happen Earlier Than 2024?

In theory, the next UK general election is firmly fixed for the first Thursday in May of 2024. But if the UK parliament votes for an earlier election date, this could be brought forward.

No one really knows what the true fallout of the global health crisis will be in the United Kingdom. With the devastation to the economy likely to lead to massive cuts to social care, health, and education, it is hard to gauge what the political landscape will look like even one year from now.

Then, of course, there is Brexit. Although the UK formally departed the European Union on January 31, 2020, talks and negotiations will persist until both sides have thrashed out what the UK-EU relationship will entail in both the immediate and long term.

With the transition period scheduled to end on December 31, 2020, there is a lot to cover. And with the current global situation closing everything down, time is running out for a satisfactory resolution on both sides.

But if a trade agreement cannot be put in place, that means that the UK could suffer from huge tariffs on exports to the EU and beyond. There could also be other issues that would lead to the opposition getting their tails in a twist.

Predicting the Next UK General Election Date

Pick
  • 2023
    +275

In 2019’s UK general election, Prime Minister Boris Johnson gained a majority on a promise to “get Brexit done.” It was the Conservative Party’s biggest majority in over 30 years.

Now, if the Conservatives decide to scrap the Fixed-Term Act I touched on above, they can pretty much call an election whenever they feel like it. And by “feel like it,” I mean when they are confident that their iron is red hot, and the date doesn’t exceed the maximum five-year term.

With the global crisis almost certainly set to warrant an extension on the transition period, providing the United Kingdom wants it, this could push talks pertaining to a trade deal back. And if that happens, the UK could be looking at complete withdrawal from the European Union sometime around late 2022.

Now, that is my opinion, of course. I can’t say with absolute confidence and certainty that things will transpire this way, as I have no magic or crystal ball, and things are up in the air right now.

But on the basis of my opinions on these matters, I believe we could very well see the next UK general election in May of 2023. 

You can get odds of the next UK general election going down in May 2023 if you are convinced by my opinion. But remember, it is just an opinion, and I know nothing that is not widely available and in the public domain right now.

Betting on the Next UK General Election

Well, I’ve had my say on matters relating to the date of the next general election in the UK. But in all fairness, nothing is set in stone.

You might feel strongly about an election date happening much earlier than I do, and that is absolutely fine by me. Until one is called, we are both wrong. But let’s not pretend it’s not a little fun to guess.

If political betting is your thing, you should check out our recommended political betting sites. You will find some very intriguing markets relating to the defining matters of world politics, as well as a few surprising bets that will surely catch your attention.

Oh, and please feel free to drop me a line in the comments section below with your predictions on the next UK general election. I’ll be interested to hear what you have to say.

Bye for now.

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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