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Betting on What Britain Will Leave Next

| June 19, 2019 12:00 am PDT
Betting on What Britain Will Leave Next

In June 2016, the United Kingdom narrowly voted in a referendum to leave the European Union — a move that is now commonly referred to as Brexit.

No matter what your political persuasion, it is probably fair to say that the process has now farcically limped on for three years without giving anyone what they really wanted.

You may be wondering why I’m talking about politics on a gambling blog. Well, along with all the latest sports events and outright winner markets, you will usually see a strange collection of betting prices listed for events relating to either political or current affairs.

Sometimes these will be fairly straightforward — like who will win the next US Presidential election, for example.

But there are other more interesting betting markets to discover, too.

Many online gambling sites offer a number of these kinds of markets. With the current situation in the United Kingdom and the general feeling in the country, I thought the “What Will Britain/UK Leave Next?” market seemed to be an apt way to judge the way the British public is feeling.

This market is more of a novelty bet, of course, but you can still win money from this wager, so I thought I would take a look at the options.

Latest Betting Odds

Brexit is still slowly rumbling on with no end in sight, but what could Britain leave next? Here are the latest prices from Betway.

Eurovision Song Contest3.50
IMF3.75
World Trade Organisation6.00
Ryder Cup10.00
FIFA15.00
International Cricket Council21.00
NATO26.00
Olympic Games51.00
The Commonwealth101.00
United Nations101.00

Some of these seem like fairly surprising choices. I’m not sure Britain could even leave the Commonwealth, considering the Queen is the head of that organization.

But a few years ago, no one thought the country would be leaving the EU, so who knows what could happen next?

I’m going to take a look at the possibility of these options (semi-seriously) and which ones Britain could actually end up leaving.

Non-Starters

The Commonwealth is a political association of nations that share a history due to being part of the old British Empire.

When these countries started achieving independence from Great Britain, the Commonwealth was formed to continue relations — politically and culturally. The UK public may not regard being part of the Commonwealth as seriously as some of its other members, but it is the head of the organization and would therefore never give up its role as head.

The United Nations and NATO are two other global organizations that the UK needs to be a part of to keep its standing in world affairs. Britain has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, so that wager is definitely a non-starter.

With the current US President — and the political outlook in many parts of Europe — it’s tricky to discount anything, but being a member of NATO is also far too important for Britain.

Britain is also unlikely to want to leave the Olympic Games. Although the nation’s sporting excellence has not always resulted in a deluge of gold medals over the years, the London Olympics of 2012 showed that it is seen as an important sporting institution and something that brings the country together. This is increasingly rare these days, so I’m going to discount this option, too.

Possibles

The sporting organizations on this list are an interesting case. At first glance, it would seem improbable that Britain would want to leave FIFA, the ICC, or the Ryder Cup.

But with each of these examples, there are certain developments that could provoke another exit (Fexit? Crexit? Rexit?).

As in all walks of life, money talks in sports. FIFA governs world soccer on an international basis, but there are more and more club owners with vast fortunes wanting a bigger say in the way soccer is run. Many of these club owners probably regard international soccer as something that gets in the way of them making money and can potentially stop the flow of cash due to injuries suffered by the top players.

The other factor to take into consideration here is that in soccer, there is no UK/Great Britain team. The independent soccer associations of England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland all have their own representatives, so a decampment en masse by the UK is unlikely.

But if a wealthier association such as England wanted to become part of a new soccer organization away from FIFA, then I could definitely see that happening.

The case for leaving the International Cricket Council follows the same guidelines. The UK (or the ECB, representing the England cricket team) does not have quite as much sway in the governing of the sport and would need to rely on the powerhouse of Indian cricket.

This is not to say that England could leave the ICC — although it would seem unlikely — but more that a new governing body would have to be set up in its place for this to happen.

Finally, the Ryder Cup is an interesting option. Initial thinking makes this a non-starter as the Ryder Cup is a very popular international golf competition featuring some of the best players in the world. Originally, it was played between teams representing the US and Great Britain.

But due to the dominance of American golfers (the US lost only three Ryder Cups in 50 years), it was changed to include a Europe team instead.

This is where it gets confusing. If Britain leaves the EU, then does that mean that British golfers would not be able to represent a European team?

Obviously, Britain is not leaving Europe as a continent, but it does pose some interesting questions concerning representation that leaves the likelihood of leaving the Ryder Cup more possible than originally thought.

Political Meltdown Options

The current state of global politics is — to put it mildly — in a confusing place. With established political parties and leaders being thrown out of office all over the world and the rise of more populist leaders, it is hard to predict any election. So it is tempting to go with “never say never” to Britain leaving such grand institutions as the IMF and the WTO.

Without a political meltdown of legendary proportions, I would not expect Britain to leave either organization and lose the power and global influence it enjoys because of its membership.

But then, that was one of the main arguments of the remain crowd when it came to Brexit — and we all know how that one went.

The Favorite

The Eurovision Song Contest is something that British people love and hate in equal measure. The campness and pop silliness of it all appeals to the eccentric side of British nature while at the same time fostering a further feeling of being outside the group looking in.

Although the United Kingdom has enjoyed a successful history in the competition, the meager points totals achieved in recent years have had fans complaining of political voting patterns and a sense of it all being unfair.

But the main thing to take into consideration here is that Eurovision is essentially regarded as a harmless piece of fun — and probably the only thing vaguely European that many members of the British public can stand.

I would go as far as to say that if any politician had suggested including dragging the UK out of the Eurovision Song Contest as part of the EU referendum, we would have seen a very different result.

Final Words

This betting market is obviously intended as just a bit of fun. It is completely above board, though, and Betway would accept your wager.

I’m not sure any of the options are worth a go, really, but with the way things are going politically, it is a brave person who disregards anything these days!

If betting on this kind of market appeals to you, you should check out what other top novelty betting sites have to offer. There are usually quite a few fun things to wager on.

Dan Roberts

Dan Roberts is an experienced freelance writer specialising in sports and sports betting. He is particularly knowledgeable about world soccer, but also writes about football, basketball and cricket.

As a fan of Nottingham Forest, New York Knicks, Minnesota Vikings and New York Mets, Dan has not had much to celebrate recently.

More Posts by Dan Contact Dan Dan on Twitter

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