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Betting Tips for UFC Vegas 43 With Odds and Top Picks

| November 16, 2021 8:31 am PDT

My predictions and picks for UFC Vegas 43 are set in stone.

This weekend’s fights go down on Saturday, November 20 at the UFC Apex. The card is headlined by a women’s bantamweight scrap between Ketlen Vieira and Miesha Tate.

Although not the most exciting lineup you will ever see, it promises to be a solid event with some good fights going down.

In this betting preview, I’m going to tell you how you can make money gambling on UFC Vegas 43.

Let’s start with the lines for the fights.

Latest Odds for UFC Vegas 43

Here are the odds for this weekend’s UFC fights.

  • Ketlen Vieira (-120) vs. Miesha Tate (+105)
  • Michael Chiesa (+135) vs. Sean Brady (-160)
  • Rani Yahya (-115) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (+105)
  • Joanne Wood (+240) vs. Taila Santos (-300)
  • Davey Grant (+210) vs. Adrian Yanez (-275)
  • Tucker Lutz (+120) vs. Pat Sabatini (-140)
  • Rafa Garcia (-110) vs. Natan Levy (-110)
  • Loma Lookboonmee (+125) vs. Lupita Godinez (-150)
  • Fares Ziam (-110) vs. Terrance McKinney (-110)
  • Cody Durden (-150) vs. Qileng Aori (+120)
  • Sean Soriano (-275) vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (+210)
  • Luana Pinheiro (-400) vs. Sam Hughes (+300)
Ketlen Vieira and Miesha Tate

In the headline bout, former women’s bantamweight champion Miesha Tate enters as a slight underdog on the night.

Tate is the biggest name on the card. But she is by no means among the best bets for UFC Vegas 43.

Behind Tate, Michael Chiesa is probably the fighter most fans know of on this card. Like Tate, “Maverick” is a slight favorite to beat Sean Brady.

A quick look over the odds for UFC Vegas 43 shows that it should be a competitive event. In the sense that, well, there are few major favorites.

Luana Pinheiro, at -400 beat Sam Hughes, has the shortest odds. She is followed by Taila Santos (-300) who is fancied by the bookies to overcome Joanne Wood.

Now we have covered the odds for Saturday’s fights, it’s time to make my predictions.

UFC Vegas 43 Predictions for the Main Card and Prelims

Following a run of three big shows, which included the star-studded UFC 268 on November 6, you can cut some slack for the modest lineup at this event.

While I wouldn’t exactly call Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate the greatest headliner of all time, it should be a good watch. More importantly, it is not a bad fight to try and win some money with smart bets.

Fight Who Wins? How?
Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate Miesha Tate Decision
Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady Sean Brady Submission
Rani Yahya vs. Kyung Ho Kang Rani Yahya  Submission
Taila Santos vs. Joanne Calderwood Taila Santos Decision
Davey Grant vs. Adrian Yanez Adrian Yanez KO/TKO

You can see my takes on who wins and how.

It’s time to explain my predictions for UFC Vegas 43. Let’s start things off with the women’s bantamweight showdown at the top of the bill.

Bet on Tate to Beat Vieira

Miesha Tate’s odds to beat Ketlen Vieira opened at +140 at the end of October.

Right now, you can get her at +105 with BetOnline, which makes a little more sense. After all, it’s not like Vieira has any discernible advantages over the former champion.

Nonetheless, Vieira should enter the cage as the favorite this Saturday with UFC Vegas 43 odds for the main event unlikely to change drastically.

As for the fight? Well, as you know already, I like Tate in this one. By no means is it an easy fight to call, given both ladies will more than likely go the distance.

When comparing skillsets, I’d give the advantages to “Cupcake” on the feet as well as on the floor. While Vieira is a solid fighter, she doesn’t have the power to trouble the legend of women’s MMA.

Her takedowns are unlikely to cause Tate too much trouble, with the older of the pair possibly having the edge there, too.

Ultimately, we saw nothing to suggest that Tate was shot in her last fight against Marion Reneau. She looked impressive in that bout, even if Reneau was over the hill. It was the first time, however, that “The Belizean Bruiser” was knocked out in her 18-fight pro career.

It’s very possible that Tate could earn a late stoppage. But with all things considered, the smart bet is on the American to win by decision.

  • Top Betting Tip for Vieira vs. Tate: Tate by Decision (+175)

Take Brady to Submit Chiesa

Sean Brady is 14 fights into his career and has still yet to lose.

The 28-year-old is looking to climb the ladder at 170-pounds and will do just that if he can beat #6 ranked welterweight, Michael Chiesa. Currently ranked at #14 per the official UFC rankings, Brady is gunning to crack the top ten at the very least.

Chiesa saw a promising four-fight win streak snapped by the impressive Vicente Luque in August.

That loss means Chiesa has been submitted in his last three defeats, which is an interesting statistic to observe. Especially as Brady, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blackbelt under Daniel Gracie, has picked up back-to-back submission victories over Christian Aguilera and Jake Matthews.

That gives the Philadelphian a 50% submission-to-win ratio in the promotion.

Chiesa’s wrestling is top-notch. But on the feet, he’s bang average. He has absolutely no stoppage power whatsoever, with zero KO/TKO wins from 23 fights.

Brady isn’t the hardest hitter, as evidenced by his 3 KO/TKOs from 14 bouts. But he is the better striker and will look to show that on the night.

Chiesa will be looking to land takedowns and stifle his man. But the danger with that is that one slip could see him being forced to tap.

That’s the direction I see this one going.

  • Top Betting Tip for Chiesa vs. Brady: Brady by Submission (+275)

Wager on Yahya to Beat Kyung by Submission

My predictions for UFC Vegas 43 mark out another possible submission on the main card.

In all fairness, the odds for Yahya to earn a possible 22nd win from 28 fights looks almost too good to turn down.

The Brazilian has been competing for 22 years in this sport, having picked up some invaluable experience on the BJJ and grappling circuits. A second-degree BJJ blackbelt under Athaide Junior, the 37-year-old is a submission machine.

Despite also holding a black belt in Muay Thai — a rather dubious accolade to some given that Thailand and most of the world does not recognize a grading system in the sport — Kyung has the advantages on the feet.

With that being said, neither of these bantamweights have a lot of pop to their shots.

Yahya for the submission makes sense.

  • Top Betting Tip for Yahya vs. Kyung: Yahya by Submission (+250)

Santos Too Much for Wood?

Joanne Wood is tough. The Scot has never been knocked out, despite facing some of the toughest fighters of her era.

She’s not a bad fighter, neither. At odds of +240, that might be enough for some betting on UFC Vegas 43 to throw their fate behind the former Muay Thai standout.

Wood is coming off a loss to Lauren Murphy that pretty much ended her hopes of landing a fight with Valentina Shevchenko earlier this year. A win over Santos would see her back in the frame.

Santos, however, is a strong favorite for a reason.

18-1 in MMA, the only loss of her career came in her UFC debut against Mara Romero Borella in February 2019. That was a little bit of a headscratcher.

Santos has responded impressively, winning the last four of her fights on the bounce. She is younger, more athletic, and looking better in every fight.

She should have too much for Wood on the night.

  • Top Betting Tip for Wood vs. Santos: Santos by Decision (-150)

Back Yanez to KO Grant

The final UFC Vegas 43 pick for the main card is Yanez.

This is a contender for the fight of the night, given both guys’ appetite for violence.

Yanez is on a seven-fight win streak at bantamweight, winning all three of his UFC fights by stoppage. He was awarded the Performance of the Night honors every time he has stepped into the Octagon, which should give you an idea of his ability to entertain.

Grant is no slouch and has been awarded Performance of the Night bonuses in two of his last three bouts, which also ended by stoppage. The Englishman saw a three-fight streak snapped by Marlon Vera in June, but will be relishing the chance to get back in the win column.

The 35-year-old has just three KO/TKOs in his career, with his only other stoppage by strikes coming in 2012. He has a very dangerous submission game and has never been knocked out.

Yanez is just a different beast, however, and I think he can become the first man to stop Grant. The odds for that bet are -105, which is not bad.

  • Top Betting Tip for Yanez vs. Grant: Grant by KO/TKO (-105)

UFC Vegas 42 Predictions – Who Wins the Prelims Bouts?

Looking to win money betting on UFC Vegas 42?

If so, check out these undercard predictions for Saturday’s bouts in Vegas.

  • Pat Sabatini to Beat Tucker Lutz by Submission
  • Rafa Garcia to Beat Natan Levy by Decision
  • Loma Lookboonmee to Beat Lupita Godinez by Decision
  • Terrance McKinney to Beat Fares Ziam by KO/TKO
  • Cody Durden to Beat Qileng Aori by Decision
  • Sean Soriano to Beat Shayilan Nuerdanbieke by KO/TKO
  • Luana Pinheiro to Beat Sam Hughes by Submission

There are some good wagers for UFC Vegas 43 on the prelims portion of the card.

Again, Luana Pinheiro has the shortest odds of anyone on the card. But she is looking pretty good ahead of her bout with Sam Hughes and should be in with a great chance of landing yet another stoppage.

Sabatini vs. Lutz tops the best fights to bet on this weekend and should be a great watch.

Take as much time as you need to look through these UFC Vegas 43 picks for the prelims. When you’re ready, join me as I look at my top betting tips for the card.

Top Bets for UFC Vegas 43

If you’re looking to lock in the smart bets, let’s get down to the first of my betting tips for UFC Vegas 43.

These three picks are the safest wagers for the fights this weekend. Thus, the odds for the straight-up wins are not going to be eye-popping.

Let’s take a look.

Luana Pinheiro to Win (-400)

She was always going to be among the top UFC Vegas 43 bets.

At -400, Pinheiro is not going to be to everybody’s taste. But as far as locks go, the Brazilian looks very promising.

On a streak of seven straight stoppage wins, the Contender Series graduate has won all of those fights in the first round. Although her last fight, against Randa Markos in May, was ended when the now-cut Markos landed an illegal up-kick that saw the fight stopped by way of a DQ.

The stats don’t lie though. This is a fighter that can consistently finish her opponents.

If these odds aren’t doing it for you, the option of +275 for her to win in Round 1 is there. Or, you can take her to win inside the distance at +140.

Adrian Yanez to Win (-275)

As I explained earlier, Yanez is a machine.

Fast becoming yet another monster lurking in the shark-infested waters of the bantamweight division, this guy faces a tough Davey Grant.

Let’s see Yanez’s record from his last five fights.

Event Opponent Result Date
UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw Randy Costa Win by TKO July 24, 2021
UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland Gustavo Lopez Win by KO March 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva Victor Rodriguez Win by KO October 31, 2020
Dana White’s Contender Series 28 Brady Huang Win by TKO August 11, 2020
LFA 78 Kyle Estrada Win by Decision November 15, 2019

That record alone makes for a compelling argument in favor of a Yanez win.

Comparing these two, it’s clear to me that Yanez has the upper hand. He should win this fight.

Sean Soriano to Win (-275)

A loss to Christos Giagos was not exactly the perfect way to start his UFC run.

This weekend presents the perfect opportunity for the Rhode Island native to show what he is made of.

Soriano makes my list of the best tips for UFC Vegas 43 because he has the advantages on the feet and in the wrestling departments.

His opponent, Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, is unlikely to deal with the power of the American.

Like Soriano, Nuerdanbieke lost his first UFC fight. The defeat to Joshua Culibao exposed some of the weaknesses of “Wolverine,” and I expect his opponent to go in hard and heavy from the first bell.

I don’t see this fight making the full three rounds. So, if the moneyline is not doing it for you, Soriano to win inside the distance pays out at +140.

Best Value Bets and Sleepers for UFC Vegas 43

Michael Chiesa and Sean Brady

The opportunity to win real money betting on UFC fights is there for anyone willing to do their homework.

Luckily for you, I’ve put together the best sleeper picks for UFC Vegas 43. That will save you some time, but don’t let me put you off looking for even more value bets and long odds picks.

Let’s get to it.

Santos to Win by KO/TKO (+800)

As I pointed out earlier, Joanne Wood is a tough cookie.

But Santos has a lot of power. 10 wins from 18 have come by way of KO/TKO, which is exceptional in women’s MMA.

At these odds, it’s worth having a shot at backing the Brazilian to get the stoppage over the Scot. At 34, “JoJo” is not getting any younger. Thus, the chances of her losing inside the distance are diminishing. Especially with the wear and tear she has suffered over the past few years.

I wouldn’t bet the family heirloom on it. But as far as sleepers for UFC Vegas 43 go, it’s more than worth a shot.

McKinney to Win by KO/TKO (+325)

Now, these are great odds.

Terence McKinney has won his last four fights by first-round stoppage. The total fight time of those four bouts comes to 1:52 seconds. That is insane.

In his UFC debut, McKinney knocked out Matt Frevola in just seven seconds.

Ziam has skills and will give McKinney problems if the fight goes past the first round.

The problem is that the Frenchman looks legit until he gasses out, which he tends to do. If McKinney cannot get him early, I fancy his chances of stopping him at some point.

The best odds for UFC Vegas 43? All I can say is that you’d struggle to find a better wager than this one for the price on offer.

Brady to Win by Submission (+275)

Sean Brady is a legit BJJ blackbelt that has back-to-back submissions in his last two fights.

Michael Chiesa recently received his purple belt, putting him at the same grade as Russell Brand. No, I don’t mean the American submission machine. I’m talking about the former husband of Katie Perry with the messianic complex who makes YouTube videos for a living.

All jokes aside, most of Chiesa’s wins have come by way of submission (11). Then again, four of his five losses have been by subs, with his last three all ending on the mat.

One of the more solid value picks for UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate.

Finding the Best Odds and Bets for UFC Vegas 43

UFC logo

That’s it for my top betting tips for the fights this weekend, but here’s some additional advice.

Before I leave, I’d like to stress the importance of looking for the top odds for UFC fights, regardless of who is competing. One of the best ways to make consistent profits on the bouts is by shopping lines for the best odds.

It wouldn’t be the worst idea to look over the prices for this weekend’s fights and get into the habit of doing it going forward.

You can compare the latest odds for UFC Vegas 43 at these trusted online betting apps for UFC fights.

With that covered, I guess it’s time to draw the curtains on this preview. If you fancy reading a little more, I’ll leave you with the best UFC fighters on the male roster, ranked by their respective divisions.


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Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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