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Betting Preview for Week 4 of the 2021 Autumn Internationals – England vs. South Africa and More

| November 18, 2021 11:24 am PDT

In last week’s betting tips for the Autumn Internationals, I told you to expect fireworks.

The highlight of the weekend was a colossal Irish win over the All Blacks in Dublin. The Irish outclassed the multiple-time world champions, who were flattered by the final score.

Round 4 could potentially be even better.

The 2019 Rugby World Cup winners – South Africa – play losing finalists England in a match that should be incredibly physical.

The odds for England to beat South Africa are juicy for anyone looking to back Eddie Jones’ men, but do they have enough about them to overturn the reigning kings of world rugby?

New Zealand heads to Paris for what should be the tie of the round. Ireland hosts Argentina, while Wales and Scotland play Australia and Japan, respectively.

If you’re looking for the top bets for 2021 Autumn Internationals Week 4, I’ll be providing those alongside my predictions for all matches.

First, let’s see the odds.

Autumn Internationals Week 4 Odds

I’ve taken the odds for this weekend’s rugby from the BetOnline sportsbook.

Autumn Internationals Week 4 Odds
Bet Italy Uruguay
To Win TBC TBC
Spread/Handicap TBC TBC
Bet Scotland Japan
To Win -1000 +550
Spread/Handicap -18.5 Points (-122) +18.5 Points (-108)
Bet England South Africa
To Win +115 -137
Spread/Handicap +2.5 Points (-122) -2.5 Points (-108)
Bet Wales Australia
To Win -155 +135
Spread/Handicap -2.5 Points (-122) +2.5 Points -108
Bet France New Zealand
To Win +190 -220
Spread/Handicap +6.5 Points (-115) -6.5 Points -115
Bet Ireland Argentina
To Win -700 +450
Spread/Handicap -13.5 Points (-115) +13.5 Points (-115)

CLICK TO CLOSE

As you will notice, the odds for Italy vs. Uruguay were not available at present.

I’d recommend checking again if you want to wager on that game. What with you reading this at some point in the future, things might have changed already.

Some initial observations I’ve made when reviewing the odds for Week 4 of the Autumn Internationals were that most of the games look tight on the spread.

Additionally, it appears that the bookies have faith in the Welsh to end their campaign on a high against Australia. That’s despite the rotated side looking bang average against a Fiji team that was down to 13 men on a couple of occasions.

If you’re looking to end the series with a smile on your face, there’s no better way to do so than to win money on the games this weekend.

I’m going to take a look at all the matches set to go down on Saturday and Sunday, and give you my betting tips for the Autumn Internationals Week 4 in 2021.

Let’s start from the top.

Italy vs. Uruguay

  • Venue: Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi, Parma
  • Date: Saturday, November 20
  • Predicted Winner: Italy

Italy has still yet to find that ever-elusive win to break their skid.

It looks as though the Italians should get it this Autumn against a Uruguay team that shouldn’t be too difficult to overcome.

These two will meet in Pool A of the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France. Although it’s difficult to envisage either side progressing from that group, with hosts France and three-time world champions New Zealand joining them.

Still, it’s all to play for this weekend.

There will be no real consequence for the winner of the match; a loss for Italy, however, would be disastrous in the sense that it would reignite the debate about the Azzurri’s place in the Six Nations.

Although Uruguay will be game, I don’t see them having enough firepower to score the points required to dispatch the Italians. But they will enjoy their moments throughout the match.

Italy’s head coach Kieran Crowley has made seven changes from the side that were beaten 37-16 by Argentina last weekend.

Interestingly, five forwards have been brought in, which hints Crowley expecting a battle. Locks Federico Ruzza and Marco Fuser come in, with Abraham Steyn at 8. Luca Bigi and Danilo Fischetti join the front row.

Italy A vs. Uruguay A finished 31-13 in favor of the home side last weekend. I expect Saturday’s match to be another physical encounter, but with the Italians pulling away in the final 30 minutes with a few scores.

  • Prediction: Italy 38-Uruguay 12
  • Best Bet for Italy vs. Uruguay: Italy by 20+ Points (TBC)

Scotland vs. Japan

  • Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
  • Date: Saturday, November 20
  • Predicted Winner: Scotland

It’s fair to say that Scotland will be itching to get back to winning ways following a 30-15 defeat to South Africa in Week 3.

Gregor Townsend’s men showed promise against the world champions. But for a couple of decisions and basic errors, it might have been a better day for Scottish rugby.

If you’re betting on the 2021 Autumn Internationals Week 4, a win for Scotland looks bright ahead of this weekend’s match against Japan.

Revenge will be on the cards, too, with the excruciating 28-21 loss to the “Cherry Blossoms” still fresh in the minds of players that featured in the 2019 Rugby World Cup pool stage match.

Townsend has named a strong team for the Scots’ final match of the year.

  • 15. Stuart Hogg – Exeter Chiefs
  • 14. Darcy Graham – Edinburgh Rugby
  • 13. Chris Harris – Gloucester Rugby
  • 12. Sam Johnson – Glasgow Warriors
  • 11. Duhan van der Merwe – Worcester Warriors
  • 10. Finn Russell – Racing 92
  • 9. Ali Price – Glasgow Warriors
  • 1. Jamie Bhatti – Glasgow Warriors
  • 2. George Turner – Glasgow Warriors
  • 3. Zander Fagerson – Glasgow Warriors
  • 4. Scott Cummings – Glasgow Warriors
  • 5. Grant Gilchrist – Edinburgh Rugby
  • 6. Jamie Ritchie – Edinburgh Rugby
  • 7. Hamish Watson – Edinburgh Rugby
  • 8. Josh Bayliss – Bath Rugby

Replacements

  • 16. Stuart McInally – Edinburgh Rugby
  • 17. Pierre Schoeman – Edinburgh Rugby
  • 18. Javan Sebastian – Scarlets
  • 19. Sam Skinner – Exeter Chiefs
  • 20. Dylan Richardson – Cell C Sharks
  • 21. Matt Fagerson – Glasgow Warriors
  • 22. George Horne – Glasgow Warriors
  • 23. Blair Kinghorn – Edinburgh Rugby

By evidence of their performances over the past couple of weeks, it’s clear that the Japanese are nowhere near as strong as its 2019 outfit.

Ireland hammered Japan 60-5 in the second week of matches, exposing a very leaky defense and vulnerable setpiece in the process.

Last weekend, the #10 ranked team in the world struggled to get past Portugal. The European minnows — despite occupying 19th place on the official World Rugby Rankings list — put on an encouraging collective performance that ended with Japan scraping a 38-25 win.

Japan vs. Scotland Played Won by Scotland Won by Japan
In Japan 3 2 1
In Scotland 3 3 0
Neutral venue 2 2 0
Summary 8 7 1

I anticipate the Scottish forwards overpowering the Japanese with their creative backs bursting through for multiple tries. If Townsend’s team can get the basics right, this should be an emphatic victory to close out 2021.

The moneyline odds for Scotland vs. Japan aren’t worth a look at -1000. But I’d say a handicap of -30.5 (+375) is very doable with big rewards if they can pull it off.

  • Prediction: Scotland 55- Japan 19
  • Best Bet for Scotland vs. Japan: Scotland -30.5 (+375)

England vs. South Africa

  • Venue: Twickenham, London
  • Date: Saturday, November 20
  • Predicted Winner: South Africa

A showdown between the 2019 Rugby World Cup finalists at Twickenham should make for pulsating stuff.

The English will face the world champions for the first time since the Springboks came away with a 32-12 win in Yokohama that day.

Once again, we have a Northern Hemisphere side looking for revenge against their southern counterparts. But unlike Scotland vs. Japan, England will need a huge performance if they are to claim the win.

Eddie Jones’ men are 2-3 from their last five meetings with South Africa, with the loss in that final breaking a two-match win streak against his former employers.

Result Stadium Date
England 12-32 South Africa International Stadium – Yokohama November 4, 2019
England 12-11 South Africa Twickenham – London November 3, 2018
England 25-10 South Africa Newlands – Cape Town June 23, 2018
South Africa 23–12 England Free State Stadium – Bloemfontein June 16, 2018
South Africa 42-39 England Ellis Park – Johannesburg June 9, 2018

Although there is not as much at stake this weekend, England will be desperate to keep its momentum.

A scrappy 32-15 win over Australia last weekend was a sound result, but taking the Boks’ scalps would mean more to the English.

The South Africans were not at their best against the Scots but still managed to come away with a 30-15 win. The week before, Jacques Nienaber’s side was pushed all the way by Wales. Again, the performance wasn’t extraordinary, but the Boks held their nerve and came away with a 23-18 victory.

The odds for England vs. South Africa in the rugby this weekend point towards this one being a very tight affair. I must agree.

Both sides have players that can turn a game on its head. But comparing these teams, I have to give the edge to the South Africans.

On November 17, it was confirmed that Rassie Erasmus is suspended from rugby for two months following a “character assassination” of Nic Berry during the Lions Tour in the summer.

I don’t expect this to have too much of a negative effect on the world champions. Conversely, I believe it will give South Africa a bit of a push, considering the squad’s “us against the world” attitude displayed in recent years.

  • Prediction: South Africa 28-22 England
  • Best Bet for England vs. South Africa: South Africa -2.5 Points (-108)

Wales vs. Australia

  • Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff 
  • Date: Saturday, November 20
  • Predicted Winner: Australia

Wales just about scraped past a very physical Fiji side last weekend, despite being heavily favored for the win.

The Fijians’ discipline probably lost them the chance of another famous win against the Welsh, with Eroni Sau’s contact to the head of Jonny Williams enough to see him get his marching orders on the 24th minute.

That red card was a massive boost to the home team. But despite Fiji also having two yellows against them, a win for the islanders was still within reach.

The 2021 Six Nations champions benefitted from an extraordinary three red cards in the competition, with Ireland’s Peter O’Mahony, Scotland’s Zander Fagerson, and France’s Paul Willemse all sent off. Without such fortune, Wales would have likely lost all three of those games.

While foul play is something that should not be tolerated, all three of those reds were debatable. On Saturday, fans were once again polarized on whether the action deemed such harsh punishment. In my opinion, it did.

The Aussies will need to be especially focused on maintaining good discipline this weekend if they are to come away with the James Bevan Trophy and win number 31 against the Welsh.

Having amassed an impressive streak of 13 wins over Wales, the last to games have gone in favor of the Europeans. The Welsh broke the record run with a 9-6 win in the 2018 Autumn Internationals before running out as 29-25 winners in the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

This weekend, I’m giving the edge to Australia.

Despite enjoying a very encouraging campaign in this year’s Rugby Championship, the Wallabies have suffered back-to-back losses against Scotland and England.

They will be encouraged by the 100 points put on the Welsh over Wayne Pivac’s last three matches and should be more than a match for the hosts upfront.

If Australia can avoid becoming yet another team to be shown a red card against Wales, they should win this one with a few points to spare.

  • Prediction: Australia 19-10 Wales 

France vs. New Zealand

  • Venue: Stade de France, Paris
  • Date: Saturday, November 20
  • Predicted Winner: New Zealand

What a match this should be.

By head-to-head stats, the Kiwis should be heading to Paris with a lot of confidence. After all, the French have failed to beat New Zealand in “La Ville Lumière” since 1973.

That year, Martin Scorcese and Robert De Niro helped create a gangster classic called Mean Streets. Elton John’s Crocodile Rock was on top of the charts. Oh, and just three weeks before that win on February 10, 1973, Richard Nixon started his second term as the President of the United States of America.

You get the picture.

To make matters worse, the French are currently 0-14 against the All Blacks. You have to go all the way back to Les Bleus’ 23-19 win over the Kiwis in Dunedin for the last time that the Europeans had time to celebrate.

Could this be the year that they snap that streak?

In some ways, you have to fancy France’s chances. New Zealand is still trying to process their schooling by Ireland in Dublin last weekend that saw them completely outclassed in every single department. Although the home side claimed a 28-20 win, the scoreboard should have been more emphatic.

This week marks the sixth anniversary of the passing of All Blacks legend Jonah Lomu. So, these sides should get to celebrate the iconic winger’s legacy by engaging in another high-octane showdown such as the famous 1999 World Cup match.

France has been averaging this Autumn, however.

Despite having an abundance of riches all over the park, they escaped with a 29-20 win over Argentina on November 6. A 41-15 bashing of Georgia didn’t exactly give anyone a lot to work with, considering that was a game they were expected to win.

The French will up their game ahead of the visit of the All Blacks on Saturday. We should see some expressive rugby and a game plan from Fabien Galthie and Shaun Edwards that is not too far from that of Andy Farrell and his team in Dublin.

Although it should be a tight game, I think we’ll see a massive backlash from the visitors.

  • Prediction: France 20-32 New Zealand 
  • Best Bet for France vs. New Zealand: New Zealand -6.5 Points (-110)

Ireland vs. Argentina

  • Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
  • Date: Sunday, November 21
  • Predicted Winner: Ireland

There’s just one game left to predict in my Autumn Internationals Week 4 betting preview, and it should be a good one.

Argentina head to Dublin following a narrow loss to the French and a solid win over Italy.

Mario Ledesma’s men are targeting Ireland, who they believe they can match despite the Irish making it three wins from their last five against New Zealand last Saturday.

Incumbent US president Joe Biden congratulated Farrell’s side following their impressive win.

Biden, who identifies as a proud Irish American, is a distant cousin of former internationals Rob and Dave Kearney. The team appeared to be pleased with knowing that there is a strong element of support for the “Men in Green” from The White House.

This weekend will be a test of the side’s ability to refocus.

Argentina is a dangerous team. Not only do they have a great pack and some creative backs, but they are also considered something of a bogey team for the Irish.

Knocks sustained to established half-backs Johnny Sexton and Jameson Gibson-Park means that Munster’s Joey Carberry and Conor Murray will likely step in at 10 and 9, respectively. That is some serious strength in depth, especially with Luke McGrath hooking up with the team as a substitute at scrumhalf.

Games between these nations are usually high-paced and exciting spectacles. Ireland has the bragging rights from their last two meetings, with 28-19 and 28-17 victories in the 2017 and 2018 Autumn Internationals, respectively.

Ultimately, Ireland will be buoyed by last weekend’s result and will be confident of winning the game. With a more ambitious and expansive brand of rugby, aided by one of the best packs on the planet right now. you would expect the home side to take the win.

The only question is by how much?

  • Prediction: Ireland 34-13 Argentina
  • Best Bet: Ireland -13.5 Points (-115)

Closing Out My 2021 Autumn Internationals Week 4 Betting Preview

That should cover everything you want to know about betting on the 2021 Autumn Internationals final matches.

This year’s series has been excellent thus far. Unfortunately, the only game I was able to attend was Wales vs. New Zealand in the opening round.

Although the Welsh took a mighty hammering, my son Eli enjoyed the seats and the hotdogs. Silver linings, huh?

I’ll be watching as many games as I can this weekend, with France vs. New Zealand and Ireland vs. Argentina especially unmissable. We should see some excellent rugby in those two, in particular, so make sure to cancel your plans and claim the best spot on the couch.

For more rugby odds and bets, head over to our top online sportsbooks. When you’ve done that, bookmark the following page to get the latest betting insight ahead for the big games and tournaments.

Enjoy the matches!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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