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Soccer World Cup Group F: Round 3 Preview and Betting Picks

| June 26, 2018 12:00 am PDT
Group F Preview Round 3

The Germans have the reputation of being the most dangerous with their backs against the wall. This was proven once again in the soccer World Cup.

The reigning champions found themselves with a man down against Sweden and still found a winner at the death.

This leaves Germany’s destiny in their own hands for the 3rd and final round of Group F. At the same time, Sweden will probably have to win against a strong Mexican side in order to progress.

Even South Korea has a chance to go through, despite losing both of the first two games, while Mexico could go out after winning twice. Simply put, everything is possible in Group F, which makes the last round extremely exciting.

Before we take a closer look at the final two fixtures, let’s recap round 2.

Round 2 Recap and Impressions

Mexico managed to confirm the good impressions from the match against Germany by beating South Korea as well. The side looked dominant from the start. The Mexicans had more chances and managed to score twice through Carlos Vela and Javier Hernandez.

For most of the game, the team also defended well, and only a late goal from Son Heung-min spoiled the party a bit, but I don’t think Mexico will suffer too much because of that.

In fact, this is one of the most impressive sides after the first two games. The side has an exceptional balance between attacking and defending. Both are done by the entire team, and everyone works hard all across the pitch.

When it comes to the creative part of the game, the Mexicans combine flair and pace. They are deadly if they have the space but could also patiently find their moment to strike.

This is why they managed to win deservedly against completely different opponents like Germany and South Korea.

A lot of people seem to like the Mexicans a lot, and even the legendary Diego Maradona admitted he is a fan.

Still, the team needs to stay focused and complete the job, because the spot in the last 16 is not guaranteed right now.

A loss against Sweden could be the end of the road for the Mexicans.

It’s funny how Mexico has 6 points and is not through, while South Korea has 0 and still has a chance. The Asian team followed a dull performance against Sweden with another similar game. They now face the task of beating Germany to give themselves a chance to progress to the next round.

South Korea will somehow find a way to create more chances and keep it tighter at the back. I’m not sure they’ll manage that.

The good news for the Asians is that Germany was unconvincing in both of its games so far. Sure, the country did beat Sweden 2-1, but it wasn’t easy.

The Scandinavians went ahead early on and had chances to score a second multiple times. Germany was dominating most of the game, but the clear-cut opportunities weren’t that many.

On top of that, Jerome Boateng was sent off in the second half, which capped a terrible overall display by the defender. The general impression is that the German back line isn’t working for some reason, and it’s hard to see why.

In the first match, the lack of cover from Khedira seemed to be the problem, but he was benched, and there wasn’t much difference. There were other chances, too, with Mesut Ozil and Mats Hummels sitting on the bench too.

That didn’t improve the team that much, and it’s curious if Joachim Low will actually find a starting lineup that’s working well.

If he doesn’t, Germany could actually go down in the group stage for the first time in ages.

Still, a late Toni Kroos strike means the reigning champions have to beat South Korea and will certainly progress. This should be doable, and even a draw could work if Mexico wins against Sweden.

The Scandinavian team should’ve been in a much better spot, but the otherwise brilliant in this game Robin Olsen conceded a goal from a tight angle.

The Swedes had some good chances of their own to go ahead before that, but they lacked clinical finishing. They now have to most probably beat the strong Mexican team to secure a spot in the last 16.

Mexico – Sweden

Let’s start with the main betting markets available for this match.

Mexico to Win2.45
Sweden to Win3.20
Under 2.5 Goals1.66
Over 2.5 Goals2.15

Mexico probably feels unlucky, as all other teams with 6 points from the first two rounds are already in the last 16. The team will still have to push hard against Sweden, because a loss here and a win for Germany in the other game will mean Mexico will go home.

Still, the country is not in a bad position. A draw would guarantee that Mexico wins the group. Based on the first two rounds, the team has all that it takes to take something from the match.

The attacking players are always dangerous and combine pace with exceptional ball movement. As a result, Mexico managed to score twice in each of the opening two games and create more chances.

I expect more of the same against a Swedish defense that’s decent but will have problems against the speedy Mexicans.

At the same time, the Scandinavians are more than capable of finding the net themselves. After Zlatan Ibrahimovic retired, the team has been doing a good job of spreading the responsibility in attack.

As a result, the danger comes from various players, and we’ve seen that against both South Korea and Germany. This gives Sweden hope that they could win and book a place in the last 16.

Prediction and Betting Picks

The pressure on both teams will be huge here, so I expect a rather cagey start of the game. As time goes by, Sweden will have to push harder and look for a goal.

Mexico certainly has the advantage here, and I think they won’t lose this match. However, I don’t find odds that feel solid in this direction. Instead, I will go for a dull first half with no goals. The price for that is 2.62, and it feels too good to miss.

PICK0-0 at Half Time2.62

South Korea – Germany

Here are the main odds for this match.

South Korea to Win17.00
Germany to Win1.20
Under 2.5 Goals2.60
Over 2.5 Goals1.47

Something doesn’t feel right in the defense of this German team. The reigning champions are letting their opponents create too many chances. Mexico exposed the lack of pace, but it wasn’t much better against Sweden.

Despite dominating most of the game, the Germans conceded one goal and could’ve easily seen the Scandinavians score more, if it wasn’t for Manuel Neuer and the inability of Sweden to score.

On the bright side, Germany looked strong in attack in their second game and created plenty of chances.

The Germans’ chances weren’t that clear-cut, but the champions managed to put Sweden under pressure for most of the game, even after going down to 10 men.

If you add the famous German spirit, it’s no surprise they won at the end. Next in line is South Korea, and the Germans need another win to progress.

They should control the match, have most of the ball, and create enough chances to take all the points and book a place in the last 16.

There are two possible obstacles here. The first one is related to the fact that South Korea will certainly defend in numbers. Germany will have to find a way past through it. I think the team will have enough to create some chances and score, though.

The bigger potential issue is the leaky defense. South Korea might not have the potential of Sweden or Mexico, but there are some quick players that could exploit the lack of pace and cover.

I wouldn’t completely rule the Koreans out, as if they somehow manage to score first, it’s certainly game on.

Prediction and Betting Picks

Germany is the obvious favorite in this match, but the odds of 1.20 are simply ridiculous. This is why I will have to pass and look for other options.

One of them will raise a few eyebrows, but 17.00 for South Korea to snatch the victory is way too high. I assume most of the public money is going on Germany, and that’s the reason for this price. I would certainly place a small wager, because there’s a lot of value involved.

As for my main bet, I will once again pick a half-time option. Under 1.5 goals in the first 45 minutes is priced at 1.66, and I think this is the best market available. I don’t expect either team to push hard and take too many risks.

PICKUnder 1.5 Goals1.66

BetVictor Million Pound Bet

The game I picked for the BetVictor Million Pound Bet is between South Korea and Germany. Here’s what I’ve gone for.

  • South Korea to Win
  • Both Teams to Score (Yes)
  • Germany Over 12.5 Corners
  • Both Teams Over 2.5 Cards

Obviously, I feel that the price for South Korea is way too high. They could snatch a 2-1 win at the end, and I can see Germany win a ton of corners.

Also, the game could get ugly at some point, hence the cards. The overall price is over 4,500.

Final Words

I think the Germans will manage to qualify at the end, and Mexico will win this Group F of the soccer World Cup. Still, you never know, and the last two reigning world champions were knocked out in the group stages.

Do you think the Germans could share the same faith? Let me know in the comment section below.

Good luck!

Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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