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Betting on Who Wins the 2022 NL MVP – Odds and Analysis

| February 18, 2022 11:14 am PDT
Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. with MVP Trophy

Last season we saw a wild battle for NL MVP. In the first half, it looked like Jacob deGrom would become the first pitcher to win NL MVP since Clayton Kershaw in 2014. However, he didn’t play in the second half.

Ronald Acuna Jr. was in the NL MVP race, but he tore his ACL in early July. In the end, Bryce Harper won his second National League MVP over Juan Soto. Interestingly enough, Harper doesn’t open as the favorite this season.

Let’s see how the top MLB betting sites view the 2022 NL MVP odds.

NL MVP Odds in 2022

Juan Soto+350
Fernando Tatis Jr.+350
Ronald Acuna Jr.+900
Bryce Harper+1000
Mookie Betts+1000
Trea Turner+1500
Francisco Lindor+3000
Christian Yelich+3000
Austin Riley+3000
Pete Alonso+3000
Ozzie Albies+3000
Nolan Arenado+3000

This gives us a good sense of the 2022 NL MVP race. Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. open as co-favorites, but six players have separated themselves from the group.

Ronald Acuna Jr. likely will miss the start of the season, but we saw Tatis nearly win NL MVP last season despite missing 32 games. From there, we have last season’s MVP, Bryce Harper, and a pair of Los Angeles Dodgers.

It’s interesting to see two MVP contenders on one team. Sometimes, I believe they can negatively affect each other’s chances. The Dodgers are the early 2022 World Series favorite, so they’ll be in the spotlight.

From there, we have a host of players with (+3000) odds. Can one of these players overcome the odds and win National League MVP? Betting on the NL MVP should be exciting this season. Let’s start by discussing the co-favorites.

Juan Soto (+350)

It wasn’t long ago that the Washington Nationals had a star-studded roster. Juan Soto played a significant factor in their 2019 World Series, but the Nationals had other stars like Anthony Rendon, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Trea Turner.

Fast forward to the 2022 season, and Soto is their consensus star.

Washington lost a few players through free agency and executed a fire-sale last season. That means Soto holds the spotlight and should be at the top of the 2022 NL MVP race.

The 2019 postseason is where we saw Soto breakout. He hit .500 with three home runs and seven RBIs. Strasburg might’ve won MVP, but Soto was probably their best offensive player. He stepped up when it mattered most.

In the 2020 season, he led the NL with a .351 batting average. He also led the majors with a .490 on-base percentage, a .695 slugging percentage, and a 1.185 on-base plus slugging percentage. His success carried over to last season.

Soto made the All-Star Game for the first time in his career. However, his performance in the second half put him in the NL MVP race.

  • .348 batting average
  • 18 home runs
  • 53 RBIs
  • 87 walks

He had 22 more walks than any other player after the All-Star Break. He was neck-and-neck with Bryce Harper in NL MVP voting. I feel part of Soto’s downfall was playing for a fading Nationals team. Will that affect him again this season?

Washington’s odds put them at the bottom of the NL. We’ve seen players win the NL MVP on non-playoff teams, but they should at least be in contention. How will it look if the Nationals finish with the fifth-worst record in baseball?

Hopefully, it doesn’t negatively affect him because he is one of the best players in baseball. I expect him to be a key player in the 2022 NL MVP race.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+350)

It’s hard for a top prospect to live up to the hype. However, Fernando Tatis Jr. has done that and then some early in his career. After winning Rookie of the Year in 2019, Tatis was in the NL MVP race in 2020. He finished fourth in voting, one spot behind teammate Manny Machado.

A great start to the 2021 season had him squarely in the NL MVP race. He competed with Jacob deGrom and Ronald Acuna Jr., but they suffered injuries before the All-Star Break.

Check out Tatis’ numbers pre-All-Star Break.

  • .286 batting average
  • 28 home runs
  • 60 RBIs
  • 20 stolen bases

Even with a down August, Tatis found himself as a big (-300) favorite to win the National League MVP. However, he couldn’t hold off a late surge from Bryce Harper. In September, Tatis didn’t have terrible numbers, but you have to wonder if the San Diego Padres struggles affected his chances.

San Diego battled with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants for the NL West title. San Diego faded a bit, but everyone expected them to hang on for a wild card spot. Unfortunately, they finished 12-34, missing the playoffs.

That prompted a managerial change, as the Padres hired Bob Melvin.

The move should be a big boost for the Padres. They have the talent to compete for a World Series, but they need a good manager. This also boosts Tatis’ NL MVP chances.

I truly believe playing for a great team helps your MVP chances. Players like Mike Trout can do it on a non-playoff team, but that’s asking for a lot. San Diego’s success could be the deciding factor in Tatis’ NL MVP hopes.

Tatis nearly won MVP the last two seasons, and he’s only 23 years old. We could see him in the NL MVP race for the next decade.

Who Will Challenge Soto & Tatis for the 2022 NL MVP?

Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. are the favorites with the best NL MVP odds for 2022, but they have plenty of challengers. Let’s talk about a few.

Bryce Harper (+1000)

I think we all know what Bryce Harper is capable of. At his peak, Harper is the best player in baseball. However, we don’t always see him play up to expectations.

We consider Harper among the best players in the game, but he only finished top 20 in NL MVP voting twice in his first nine seasons.

Of course, that includes winning the 2015 NL MVP. That season, he led the NL in quite a few categories.

  • 42 home runs
  • 118 runs
  • .460 on-base percentage
  • .649 slugging percentage
  • 1.109 on-base plus slugging percentage

That doesn’t include batting .330 with 99 RBIs and 124 walks.

Last season, Harper wasn’t in the MVP conversation until late. He wasn’t even in the NL MVP race in the first half. He wasn’t having a bad season, but it wasn’t anything impressive. Harper didn’t even make the All-Star Game.

On July 28, Harper had (+11000) odds to win the National League MVP. In August, Harper made his move. He went off with a .337 batting average, 10 home runs, 25 RBIs, and 22 walks. Even with a great month, he trailed Fernando Tatis Jr.

Harper continued his torrid pace in September. With a combination of Tatis struggling, Harper surpassed him to win the 2021 NL MVP. It was quite an accomplishment for a player who didn’t make the All-Star Game.

Everyone wants to know if Harper can go back-to-back. He has the talent, but will he play up to expectations?

The Philadelphia Phillies should be in contention, but they’ll have to deal with the defending World Series champions. One of the burning questions for the 2022 season is can the Braves go back-to-back?

Philadelphia’s battle with Atlanta could factor into Harper’s 2022 NL MVP odds. The New York Mets are also a top contender, so Harper will have a lot of pressure on him.

Trea Turner (+1500)

For years, it seems like everyone knew Trea Turner for his blazing speed. He had over 30 steals from 2016-2019. Lately, we’ve seen him put it all together and turn into an NL MVP candidate.

It started in the 2020 shortened season. Turner led the MLB with 78 hits while batting .335 with 12 home runs and 41 RBIs. His great season earned him a seventh-place finish in the NL MVP voting. Last season, he improved upon those numbers.

Turner began the season with the Washington Nationals. He made the All-Star Game for the first time after hitting .318 with 17 home runs and 42 RBIs. He was a big contributor for the Nationals, but they likely weren’t making the playoffs.

That prompted Washington to conduct a fire sale. A big part of that was sending Trea Turner to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

He spent the final 52 games with Los Angeles. His numbers were just as good, if not better, with the Dodgers. He hit .338 with 10 home runs and 28 RBIs. Not long after the trade to Los Angeles, Turner’s NL MVP odds went to the top.

Turner slipped down the board, but it was more of a product of other players stepping up. Turner hit .340 in September. Let’s check out his overall numbers.

  • .328 batting average
  • 28 home runs
  • 77 RBIs
  • 195 hits
  • 32 stolen bases

He led the majors in batting average and hits while leading the NL in stolen bases. He also set a new career-high in multiple categories, including home runs and RBIs. We don’t talk about him as a power hitter, but can you imagine someone with his skillset hitting 30 home runs?

The early 2022 MLB division odds give the Dodgers the advantage in the NL West. That’ll only help Turner’s chances to win the 2022 NL MVP.

Manny Machado (+4000)

The 2022 NL MVP race should include multiple players from the NL West. We’ve talked about a few, so why not add Manny Machado? Machado is similar to Bryce Harper because he is one of the best players at his peak, but we don’t see that often.

Machado was a consistent MVP contender early in his career with the Baltimore Orioles. He finished top five in AL MVP voting in 2015 and 2016. In both seasons, he hit over .285 with 35+ home runs and 85+ RBIs.

We didn’t see him in MVP contention for a few years, but Machado put up big numbers in his second season with the San Diego Padres.

Check out his numbers from the 2020 season.

  • .304 batting average
  • 16 home runs
  • 47 RBIs

The shortened season skews the stats, but I can tell you he finished top five in the NL in home runs, RBIs, and WAR. That led to him finishing third in NL MVP voting. Last season, we didn’t see the same over-the-top numbers, but they were solid.

Machado had a slow start to the season, but we saw him heat up in the Summer. Here are his numbers in July.

Machado’s July 2021 Stats
  • .371 batting average
  • 8 home runs
  • 25 RBIs
  • 13 walks

He couldn’t keep up that run late in the season. That contributed to the Padres downfall, as they missed the playoffs. We talked about the Padres managerial change this offseason. Many people have their eye on Fernando Tatis Jr., but Machado is just as good, if not better.

Again, it’ll come down to him playing at his peak. At his peak, Machado can be a crucial player in the 2022 NL MVP race. I think that gives him excellent odds for this season.

Machado is my favorite longshot for the 2022 NL MVP.

NL MVP Prediction for 2022 MLB Season

Predicting who will win the 2022 NL MVP is a tough decision because there are so many quality candidates. I like the five players I went over, but there are more deserving players. Ultimately, I think this is Fernando Tatis Jr’s. year.

Tatis has been great in his young career. He continues to improve, he has some of the best NL MVP odds you can find at the top MLB betting sites, and I don’t expect him to slow down in 2022. Betting on the NL MVP should be fun throughout the season.

We’re still waiting for the end of the MLB lockout, so this might be a good time to check out the betting strategy for baseball. Also, be sure to check out my analysis of the 2022 AL MVP odds below.

Updated Odds and Prediction for the 2022 MLB AL MVP

The 2022 MLB season has officially reached the quarter pole. The New York Yankees have established themselves as the best team in the league, but there’s an intriguing battle for the AL MVP. A few players have separated themselves in the 2022 AL MVP...

Read More
Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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