Betting the NASCAR Auto Club 400 – Odds, Predictions, and Picks
Published on March 14, 2019
NASCAR picks back up in style this weekend, as the Auto Club 400 drops down at the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California.
The top drivers in auto racing will vie first place a week after battling it out at the TicketGuardian 500, where Kyle Busch pulled out his first victory of the 2019 season.
A Busch brother has nabbed a win at this event three times before, with Kyle Busch taking back-to-back wins in this race in 2013 and 2014.
He may be too far removed to lean on that momentum, but he’s certainly on fire in 2019, as he owns three top-five finishes and could be a threat to win again here.
Busch is certainly in the mix, but everyone knows that NASCAR is loaded with elite driving talent. Sports bettors will want to consider all of the options, while they also can’t forget about Martin Truex Jr., who was victorious at the 2018 Auto Club 400.
If you’re looking for past winners to bet on, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick all have experience being the first to the checkered flag in this event.
Some of the aforementioned names are some of the best in the business, while bettors will also always want to keep in mind other options that compete on a more temporary basis.
For a season-long view, though, you can take a gander at who has gotten off to a hot start and who could pay off big as a champion. Kyle Busch leads the way thanks to this strong start, but the road is long and winding.
Here’s a look at the latest Monster Energy title odds over at MyBookie.ag.
Jimmie Johnson has been dominant in recent years, but after winning seven of the last 11 season titles, he’s gone dormant over the past two years. I’m not exactly seeing a bounce-back based on what’s happened so far in 2019 (0 wins or top-five finishes), but his +2000 price tag is clearly offering elite betting value.
Johnson deserves a nod and perhaps a flier bet, but the smart money is going to be split up between Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Brad Keselowski. Some other drivers are obviously still very much alive as well, but these are guys who have won before and have at least shown good form this season.
Of the top options, I love the value with Logano. It’s not going to be easy to repeat after winning last year, but it’s not like it hasn’t happened before. Logano has been in strong form with two top-five runs and a win already this year. As a champion just one year ago, his +800 price tag is too good to pass up.
While taking a look down the road and betting on who wins the NASCAR title is definitely something to hit the refresh button for each week, it’s also crucial to dissect every big race.
If you can’t come down to a handful of drivers you love, I never suggest betting too much. However, there should be a lot of value to fall in love with this week, and it could be time for some big names to make a move.
Martin Truex Jr. will be back to defend his title in this event, and he’ll also be out for blood after finishing second to Kyle Busch last week. He missed out on first by 1.259 seconds, too, so you better believe he’s going to want to get some revenge. Adding a back-to-back championship in the process probably wouldn’t feel horrible, either.
Regardless, I’ll certainly be looking at these two drivers when the Auto Club 400 rolls around. Before you finalize your bets, be sure to do some research, consider the track and event history, and of course take a look at the latest Auto Club 400 betting odds.
This is a lot of options to consider for NASCAR betting purposes. As you may know, though, the very best drivers are typically the ones that crack the top ten, and it’s pretty rare that some random sleeper snags a win.
If anything, you’re usually eyeing the top ten drivers in NASCAR and then maybe tossing a flier bet or three on the next five to ten options.
For the Auto Club 400 specifically, let’s dive into some of the top favorites, some Auto Club 400 sleepers, and of course a longshot that could be worth your time (and money).
Martin Truex Jr. has the sixth-best odds, but the price gap is negligible. He’s coming back to repeat as champion after winning here in 2018, and I don’t know a good reason why he can’t.
The form is fantastic, as Truex has finished second twice already this season and has cracked the top-five three different times.
Busch won last week and has crushed here with two wins in the past. He could obviously stay hot here, especially since he hasn’t finished worse than sixth in any of his last four runs.
It’s tough to win any event multiple times, and it’s even more difficult to win races in successive weeks. Perhaps for that reason alone, I’d refrain from putting all of my eggs in one basket this week.
Harvick took first in this event back in 2011, and since then, he’s at least cracked the top-four three different times. The reviews are mixed for him here otherwise, but Harvick is one of the best veteran drivers on the circuit.
It’s not like the form has been bad for the 43-year-old. Harvick has one win under his belt this year already, while he’s been inside the top-ten four times. Knowing Auto Club Speedway and taking the event before absolutely keeps him in the running.
Logano has never won at the Auto Club 400. As a matter of fact, he’s yet to snag a single win at the Auto Club Speedway. That isn’t to say he hasn’t been close, as Logano has finished inside the top-ten here in each of his last four runs.
It’s arguable Logano is inching toward that elusive first win, while his 2019 resume to this point is rather daunting. Logano has been ultra-competitive, finishing inside the top-10 in five of six races and winning two. Logano is my pick to take down the championship this year, and getting another big win (as well as a first) could give him a huge boost in that plight.
I promise I’m not forgetting about Brad Keselowski. He won here in 2015 and has been very good at times this year. Unfortunately, he’s also been extremely inconsistent. Because of the level of competition he’s facing, I would need better odds to go with him at the Auto Club 400.
That brings me to Larson, who is the last remaining favorite with strong Auto Club 400 odds that I’d feel comfortable backing. Larson won here two years ago, so he’s another guy that has already proven he can get the job done. His form has been rock solid with a 12th-place finish or better in five straight races, but he’s just not running at an elite level right now.
Larson is in play at his +600 price tag, but like Keselowski, I’d prefer a little more bang for my buck if I’m going to bet on him to win the 2019 Auto Club 400.
The favored NASCAR drivers are usually the way to go, but sometimes guys with better prices can rise up and snag wins. There is actually some really nice value over at Bovada this week, too.
Let’s go over some of my favorite Auto Club 400 value plays at the best online betting sites.
Like I said, I wouldn’t venture too far away from the top options, but Hamlin is smack dab in the middle between the favorites and the longshots. He’s closer to the favored side, however, as he’s been pretty good in 2019 and obviously is a strong driver with 32 career wins to his name.
Hamlin has been great this year, as he finished fifth at the TicketGuardian 500 and even won the Daytona 500. He has three top-five runs under his belt and has cracked the top six in two of his last three races at the Auto Club Speedway.
This is a pretty nice price to shoot for Hamlin continuing a strong year and getting his first victory at this track.
You can shoot for a first and tackle some value with Hamlin or Logano, or you can go with a trusted veteran who has a ridiculous three wins in this event. Johnson knows the Auto Club Speedway as well as anyone, too. He has six career wins here and has placed inside the top-five 13 different times.
Obviously, Johnson isn’t the elite driver he once was, but he proved earlier this year with a win that he can still make some noise when he wants to. Johnson has also been in solid form in 2019, cracking the top-ten in four of six events, including a solid 8th-place run last week.
One other reasonable sleeper is Buescher, who carries an awesome price going into the Auto Club 400. Seriously, a $100 bet at Bovada would bring back $22,500 for a guy who seems to be trending upwards.
Buescher is not the most reliable driver, but he has two top-ten runs to his name in 2019 and has safely been inside the top 20 in five of his six races. The only problem is Buescher has only raced at the Auto Club Speedway four times, and he’s never placed better than 20th.
Your best bet is going with the elite drivers and then picking one intermediate option you really like. Putting serious money down on the guys priced at +200000 or worse is going to be a massive risk 99.9% of the time.
That being said, the value here is pretty absurd. As in, you can bet $1 at Bovada on some of these guys and bring back as much as $2,500 if they somehow take first place. Should you make that specific bet, you’d be dealing with a wager involving these drivers.
If for some reason you feel like taking a crazy shot, a $100 bet on any of these guys could return an insane $250,000 in the event they actually won the Auto Club 400.
I’m not really advocating for that, as it’s pretty much throwing money out the window. Still, if there is a strong argument, and you’ve got money to burn, it’s not the worst idea.
Of these options, the only driver I can see taking a chance on is Corey LaJoie, who at least found a way to finish 18th at this year’s Daytona 500. Being competitive at that stage is always worth noting, while LaJoie has been good enough to crack the top ten in two races in his short career.
This would be quite the time for the 27-year-old to register his first NASCAR win, but he does have good pedigree (his dad is Randy LaJoie), and this would be a high upside bet.
While obviously a lot of fun if it worked out, I don’t really see the point of this type of wager this week.
Regardless of who you actually like to win the Auto Club 400, you’re going to want to decide where to bet on the race at some point. Like any other sports betting genre, the big thing you’re looking for is safety, reliability, a variety of wager options, attractive odds, and fast payouts.
It’s a good practice to have a handful of NASCAR betting sites you can go to throughout the year and simply switch back and forth depending on what wagers are being offered and what odds are out there.
For instance, picking the winner of the Auto Club 400 or any other race is one thing, but I often prefer to have other auto racing betting options. Added versatility can be key in helping you make that decision, and for the most part, Bovada.lv continues to take the cake in just about every way.
Regardless, I’d pick from one of these NASCAR betting websites.
I like MyBookie.ag’s lineup of NASCAR wagers, but Bovada still has some of the better options for betting on specific auto races. That’s probably going to be the case for the Auto Club 400 as well, but as is the case with any betting, it can be different for you based on your preferences and needs.
I’m sticking with the favorites this week. I do have a soft spot for Jimmie Johnson at his +5500 price tag, and Denny Hamlin is interesting, but I’d be shocked if one of the drivers priced at +650 or below doesn’t come away with the win.
Experience appears to matter a great deal at the Auto Club Speedway, but there is something about a guy chasing a first. When you can back that drive up with elite talent and good form, it’s really something a bettor can get behind.
That brings me to Joey Logano.
He’s red hot as a whole in 2019, he’s driven well at this course, and that first win at this track is bound to come around eventually. You can back Kyle Busch to win his second race in a row or Martin Truex Jr. to defend his title, but I am digging Joey Logano this week.