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Betting on How Many QBs Will Be Drafted in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft

| April 23, 2021 11:05 am PDT

There was a time when the line for how many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round was set at 4.5. That ship has sailed as virtually all the top sites have shifted the number to 5.5.

If you happen to come across this particular NFL Draft prop still sitting at “4.5 QBs in round one,” chances are you’re coughing up an egregious amount of juice if you want to hammer the over.

Here is my thought process when considering how to approach this wager.

Odds for How Many QBs Will be Drafted in the First Round

The first thing to do is to gather the odds from the best NFL betting sites.

Not every sportsbook offers this prop, but it’s important to capture the best line available before you pull the trigger.

Odds BetOnline MyBookie SportsBetting.ag
Over 5.5 QBs +300 +250 +300
Under 5.5 QBs -500 -450 -500

Now that you have an idea of what price you can find, let’s address the question at hand.

Locks in Round 1 (4)

  • Trevor Lawrence
  • Zach Wilson
  • Justin Fields
  • Trey Lance

Trevor Lawrence pledged a $20,000 donation to Jacksonville thanking them for their unwavering support. Stating the obvious – we can safely pencil Lawrence to the Jags at the top slot and not think twice.

Zach Wilson is on his way to the Jets – that’s not a secret either.

Once the 49ers are on the clock at #3 is when things get interesting, although we know they’re taking a quarterback.

Kyle Shanahan hasn’t been shy about his desire to pluck a QB – that’s why San Francisco traded up from #12 to #3 in the first place.

Given the upside and allure attached to Justin Fields and Trey Lance, it’s conceivable they go third and fourth, respectively. Mac Jones is also in the mix, but more on him in a moment.

The bottom line is between Atlanta (#4) and Denver (#9), as well as all of the possibilities of teams trading up, a minimum of four QBs will be gone within the first 15 picks. That’s a guarantee.

Virtual Locks in Round 1 (1)

  • Mac Jones

Accounts from trusted reporters such as Adam Schefter and Daniel Jeremiah have Mac Jones landing with the Niners.

Although Justin Fields has taken over as the betting favorite (to go #3) at several places to bet on the NFL Draft.

It is fair to say that said sportsbooks aren’t seeing eye-to-eye with executives around the league.

However, let’s play devil’s advocate and say San Francisco opts for Fields or Lance. Then where does Mac fall?

Denver is certainly in the mix, and both New England and Washington have been linked to potential trades. Certain NFL GMs may not be enamored with Mac’s profile, but could we really see Bill Belichick passing on Jones if he falls right into his lap?

New England’s quarterback rooms currently consist of Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham, and Jacob Dolegala.

Cam looked awful last year and is on a one-year deal laden with incentives. We know that neither Stidham nor Dolegala is the long-term answer.

Mac is a Nick Saban guy who shares some of the same traits as a young Tom Brady. If four QBs are off the board and the Alabama QB is available at #15, I’d be flabbergasted if the Pats took a pass.

And even if that did happen, the phones would be ringing off the hook with teams trying to snag the last remaining NFL-ready QB.

I have Jones listed here as a “virtual lock” to go in round one, but I’m having a hard time drumming up any versions of Mac lasting beyond the first 32 picks.

That puts us at five first-round quarterbacks in 2021.

Other QBs Who Could Be Drafted in Round 1 (0)

I’m confident that the five aforementioned quarterbacks will land in round one. Having said that, I feel equally sure that no other QBs will hear their name called until day two.

I’m yet to encounter a single mock draft from a reputable source that has more than five QBs being selected on day one.

Davis Mills is an intriguing prospect receiving plenty of hype, but not “first-round hype.” Kellen Mond is in the conversation to be the 6th QB taken – but again, not in round one.

Not even the boosters in Fayetteville are entertaining the idea that Feleipe Franks is a first-round talent.

I’m on board with the theory that Mills could be developed into an above-average NFL starter, but the second round is when captivated organizations will consider rolling the dice.

My Pick for How Many Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round

Under 5.5-450

Even as pass-happy and quarterback-driven as the National Football League has become, I don’t see anybody biting on Davis Mills or Kellen Mond in the first round – which is what it would take for the “under” not to cash.

This is a good-old-fashioned slam-dunk bet – do not sweat laying -450 at MyBookie.

Only once have six QBs been drafted in the first round – that was back in 1983. Only once since 2000 have five quarterbacks been selected in round one, and that was just barely when Lamar Jackson snuck in as the 32nd pick in 2018.

We’ll see five quarterbacks go in 2021, but have solace knowing that we won’t see six.

Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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