Betting on Electoral College Results in the 2020 Election – Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets
One of the big requests from our readers this week was covering the best bets for Electoral College results in the 2020 presidential election.
So, I decided to put this little piece together detailing the Electoral College odds, my favorite bets, the worst bets, and a few predictions that should help you choose wise wagers.
I’ve taken the odds from the best political betting sites. You can find several top sites offering some really interesting odds right now, and I’ll get into why a little later.
Before you place your bets, make sure to give this post a good read. There is some valuable info in here that I think you’ll enjoy, and it could ultimately make the difference between winning money and losing it on the election.
So, without further ado, let’s get to it!
Electoral College Odds by State
|State||Republican Odds||Democratic Odds|
|New Hampshire (NH)||+275||-400|
|New Jersey (NJ)||+1000||-4000|
|New Mexico (NM)||+500||-900|
|New York (NY)||+900||-2900|
|North Carolina (NC)||-115||-115|
|North Dakota (ND)||-10000||+1400|
|Rhode Island (RI)||+1100||-5000|
|South Carolina (SC)||-1600||+700|
|South Dakota (SD)||-6600||+1200|
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The odds above were accurate at the time of writing but subject to sudden change. As the 2020 election races reaches it conclusion, there are all kinds of factors that will affect these and other election betting odds.
To get the latest odds, I recommend checking out the following sites.
Safest Bets for Republican Wins
You’re not going to find safer states to bet on for Republican wins than those encompassed in the “red wall” or “red sea.”
These states have voted for the GOP in the last seven elections, and stay committed to Republican policy. Many of the Southern States are also loyal to the red party, while the Deep South states have senators and governors that are almost unanimously Republican.
It was unsurprising that the former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke’s impressive challenge to Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018 would start tongues wagging about Texas potentially being a swing state in 2020.
But that’s not going to happen, especially with Texans worried about Joe Biden’s alleged fracking claims and his anti-gun stance.
At the time of writing, Trump’s chances of winning Alabama are about 99%.
Sure, polling data isn’t always accurate, but it’s safe to say that the state will go for Trump. Republican nominees have comfortably taken Alabama by 20 points since 2004. In 2016, Trump’s winning margin was close to 28%.
In the Carolinas, voters don’t tend to change their votes.
But while Trump is battling for North Carolina, South is all but his.
Strongly Trending (Google) since immediately after the second debate is CAN I CHANGE MY VOTE? This refers changing it to me. The answer in most states is YES. Go do it. Most important Election of your life!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 27, 2020
Oklahoma is another state is almost certain to vote Republican. Trump recently appealed to Oklahomans to consider what he believes is Biden’s ambitions to “destroy the oil industry.”
There’s a good chance that Trump loses the popular vote but is re-elected. He will need states like Oklahoma, though. Luckily for him, he will definitely win Oklahoma.
Safest Bets for Democrat Wins
Safe Biden states to bet on? Well, those behind the blue wall, obviously.
From California to New York, Biden will have the support of many voters who align with the progressive and liberal ideals that his party gravitates toward.
You won’t many safer states for Dems than these.
It would be a greater shock for Trump to win California than his victory in 2016’s presidential election.
The state has voted heavily in favor of the Democrat nominee for the last seven election cycles, and will be considerably blue this time around.
More chance of the New York Jets winning the Super Bowl.
Basically California, but with East Coast voters.
Trump’s chances here are probably worse than they are for him to win the lottery every month for the next two years. Not statistically, of course, but when has he been concerned with that?
Can you imagine if Joe Biden lost Delaware? Especially as he served as the United States Senator for Delaware from 1973 to 2009?
Now, he might not remember that, and will probably refer to voters in his home state as God knows what, but they will vote for him en masse. Whether Biden is, in fact, “Joe Biden’s husband” and “Kamala’s running mate” or not, he’s got this.
There are fewer states as fiercely loyal to the Democrats than Minnesota.
Other than Nixon’s victory here in 1972, Minnesota has voted blue since JFK in 1960. Will Trump be the first Republican since “Tricky Dick?”
Can turtles play tennis?
Best Value Electoral College Bets
If you’re looking for value bets on the 2020 presidential election, the ones below are definitely my favorite.
I have explained why under each one, so give them a read and see what you think. Perhaps you will love them, but you might think they stink worse than old broccoli in a tumble dryer.
Nevada – Democrat Win (-280)
I would have expected the odds of a Dems victory in Nevada to be a lot shorter than this.
It might come as a surprise to anyone betting on the election in Las Vegas and in other parts of the state, but I can’t see Trump winning here.
Although no fault of Trump’s, the global health crisis has ripped through the hospitality industry in the state. With mass unemployment as a result, this is something that voters might very well take out on Trump in the polls.
Florida – Republican Win (-150)
With a huge portion of the Latino community rallying behind Trump, as well as a surge of support among black males, I think his odds to win Florida are excellent.
Florida is a key state for Trump. If he loses here, It’s goodnight Vienna for his campaign. But I don’t see that happening.
There is a sizeable Cuban community in the state alone that have no intention of voting for someone like Biden, who Cuban-Americans like Jorge Masvidal claim has socialist values.
Michigan – Republican Win (+225)
I think there is great value in Trump winning in Michigan.
Now, I won’t say that this is nailed on in any way, shape, or form. It’s not. Biden leads in the polls right now, but it’s close.
The POTUS has hit the campaign trail hard in the state, and views it as one of the key pieces to his re-election campaign in 2020. Can he do it, just as he did in 2016? Or will Biden, who has pretty much neglected it in contrast, win?
Here’s what they just played at Trump’s rally in Lansing, Michigan: pic.twitter.com/pEzLNUamjs— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) October 27, 2020
States to Avoid Betting On
From the best value bets for those wagering on the Electoral College results to bets that I would not touch.
And by not touch I mean they are too close to call this time around. These are, as I see it, states that could really end up going either way.
If you want to learn more, Jennifer’s Swing States predictions for the 2020 presidential election is definitely worth a read. We don’t agree on everything, but there is certainly a lot we do see going the same way.
Although Biden is leading well at the time of writing, I think Wisconsin could end up surprising us. But would I bet on that? Absolutely not.
Sure, many Trump voters are said to be waiting until the day to cast their votes, and this could be swayed by the incumbent’s efforts on the ground in the state.
I’m approaching this one the same way that I would approach a six-foot wasp with an attitude problem.
Although this state has a rich and deep history of voting red, some pundits believe that Biden could change that.
Other than Clinton’s win in 1996, Arizona has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1952. That’s one hell of a history to overturn, so it comes as a little surprise that Biden would be the man to do it.
A GREAT DAY IN ARIZONA! pic.twitter.com/jsohSb5QF6— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 24, 2020
Don’t forget, there are a lot of older folks in the state that are worried about Biden’s tax policies. There are other citizens of all ages worried about his Green New Deal. Still, he is believed to be ahead in the polls.
Trump, who will appeal to Arizonans to vote for him, should win this state. But that will depend on many of the senior citizens responding well to the president’s efforts in handling the global health crisis earlier this year.
Too tough to call.
With a large percentage of voters that identify as independent, it should come as no surprise to see Iowa classed a swing state.
Republican’s have four presidential election wins from the past 40 years here, with in 1980, 1984, 2004 and 2016 counting as big ones. Democrats have six wins in that timeframe, with 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2008 and 2012.
Although Biden could have an advantage due to serving as Obama’s VP in 2008 and 2012, Trump won here last time. And given the state’s anti-Green New Deal stance, this one could go right down to the wire.
More Bets for the 2020 US Presidential Election
You can find everything you need for betting on the presidential election on our site. My colleagues and I have been working around the clock on all angles of the election, and are will continue to do so until election day.
Below, you will find some of our most popular pieces. Give them a read before you go!