Betting on the 2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Winner

By Ben Morris in Sports
| February 8, 2021 6:28 am PDT
Betting on the 2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Winner

Are you ready to bet on the Brownlow Medal winner in 2021?

Lachie Neale won the AFL’s highest individual accolade in record-breaking fashion last year, ending up ten votes clear of second-place Travis Boak. But can the Brisbane Lions star secure back-to-back awards this year?

Brownlow Medal betting is always fun – and 2021 shouldn’t be any different. The new AFL season is scheduled to kick off on March 18, so we don’t have to wait too much longer for the action to get underway.

Below, I analyze the favorites and sleepers for the 2021 AFL Brownlow Medal. But first, let’s check out the latest Brownlow Medal odds for 2021.

AFL Brownlow Medal Odds for 2021

If you followed the AFL last year, you won’t be surprised to see Lachie Neale (5.00) at the very top of the bookmakers’ Brownlow Medal odds list for 2021.

However, following another standout season with Carlton, Patrick Cripps (7.00) is expected to challenge Neale for the AFL’s biggest individual honor this year.

The best online betting sites view two-time Brownlow winner Nat Fyfe (8.00) as a genuine contender in 2021, while 2017 champ Dustin Martin (9.00) is also among the frontrunners.

Patrick Dangerfield (11.00) clinched the prize in 2016, although the high odds for the Geelong star to win the Brownlow Medal in 2021 suggest that he could struggle to challenge the favorites.

Assessing the 2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Favorites

Lachie Neale (5.00)

Brisbane midfielder Lachie Neale joined club legends such as Michael Voss, Jason Akermanis, and Simon Black by becoming the fourth Lions player to win the Brownlow Medal last year.

The 27-year-old had already been named the AFL Players’ Association MVP and the AFL Coaches’ Association Player of the Year, before the Brownlow triumph capped off a phenomenal individual campaign.

Neale was crowned last season’s fairest and best player in style, equaling the biggest winning margin at the top of the Brownlow leaderboard. Better still, his votes-per-game average of 1.82 was the highest in the competition’s history.

2020 BROWNLOW MEDAL LEADERBOARD
Position Player Team Votes
1st Lachie Neale Brisbane Lions 31
2nd Travis Boak Port Adelaide 21
=3rd Christian Petracca Melbourne 20
Jack Steele St Kilda 20

Brisbane tied with minor premiers Port Adelaide on 56 points on the 2020 ladder, only to miss out on top spot due to their inferior point percentage. If the Lions can pick up where they left off last season, betting on the 2021 Brownlow Medal winner will be made a whole lot easier.

Let’s not forget that Neale topped the disposals leaderboard last year.

Patrick Cripps (7.00)

It feels like Patrick Cripps has been working towards a Brownlow triumph for a while now.

By his own high standards, the Carlton co-captain didn’t have the best season in 2020. But having won the Leigh Matthews Trophy in 2019, along with three John Nicholls Medals (2015, 2018, 2019), Cripps is no stranger to scooping individual accolades.

Crippa picked up 26 Brownlow votes in 2019, finishing joint-third on the leaderboard two years ago. He didn’t make it into the top ten last season, yet he is expected to compete for the prize in 2021.

The Blues haven’t produced a Brownlow Medalist since 2010, when Chris Judd won the award. Still, there is a sense that Cripps could back that trend this year.

Nat Fyfe (8.00)

Since 1924, just 15 players have won more than one Brownlow Medal – and Nat Fyfe is one of them.

The Fremantle captain edged Matt Priddis by three points to secure the award back in 2015. Four years later, he finished six votes clear of Patrick Dangerfield to win the 2019 Brownlow Medal.

Fyfe missed a sizable portion of the previous campaign through injury, playing in just 13 of the Dockers’ 17 games last term. His side ended up missing out on the finals series, but if Fyfe can stay fit this year, 2021 should be far more successful season for the Western Australians.

If you’re planning to bet on the Brownlow Medal in 2021, you’d be foolish to write off Fyfe. Only four players have clinched the prize three times, but I don’t think anyone would be overly surprised if Fyfe became the fifth man to rack up a hat-trick of Brownlow triumphs.

Dustin Martin (9.00)

When it comes to wagering on the winner of the Brownlow Medal, you simply cannot leave Dustin Martin out of the conversation.

Following another outstanding Grand Final appearance, Dusty picked up the Norm Smith Medal in 2020, becoming the first man in AFL history to be adjudged the best on ground in the showpiece event.

DUSTIN MARTIN – BROWNLOW MEDAL LEADERBOARD FINISHES
Year Ranking Votes
2015 7th 21
2016 3rd 25
2017 1st 36
2018 =6th 19
2019 =6th 23
2020 =5th 15

With Richmond winning three of the last four premierships, Martin stands an excellent chance of scooping a second Brownlow Medal in 2021. The Tigers are expected to challenge for silverware again this year, with Dusty likely to be at the center of the action.

Having said that, Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch kicked the bulk of Richmond’s goals last term. If the forward pair do the same this year, it could potentially hinder Martin’s Brownlow bid.

Sleepers for the AFL Brownlow Medal in 2021

Patrick Dangerfield (11.00)

When it comes to betting on the Brownlow Medal winner in 2021, you won’t find a better sleeper option that Patrick Dangerfield.

After leaving Adelaide in 2015, the Geelong talisman won the award following a stellar debut campaign for the Cats. Since then, he has consistently found himself towards the top end of the rankings.

Danger finished third on the kicks leaderboard last term, with Geelong going all the way to the 2020 Grand Final. The three-time Carji Greeves Medalist looks set to enjoy another hugely successful season.

Marcus Bontempelli (11.00)

Marcus Bontempelli further cemented his status as one of the AFL’s leading lights last year – and the 2021 Brownlow Medal odds reflect that.

The Western Bulldogs captain won the AFLCA Champions Player of the Year Award and the Charles Sutton Medal in 2019, setting himself up nicely for a Brownlow charge in 2021.

Bonti’s price of 11.00 is bound to attractive plenty of attention.

WESTERN BULLDOGS – DISPOSALS (2020)
Player Disposals
Jack Macrae 473
Bailey Smith 382
Marcus Bontempelli 375
Caleb Daniel 363
Tom Liberatore 332

Christian Petracca (13.00)

It feels Christian Petracca has been a promising young player for a long time. But after being crowned Melbourne’s best and fairest last year, as well as earning a spot in the 2020 All-Australian team, he has now established himself as one of the best midfielders in the AFL.

The Demons didn’t enjoy a good campaign last year, yet Petracca was a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy season. The 25-year-old finished joint-third on the Brownlow leaderboard last term, and I’m backing him to shine again in 2021.

Matt Rowell (17.00)

It could be argued that Matt Rowell is the most exciting youngster in the AFL right now.

The first pick in the 2019 AFL draft, Rowell only featured in four games for the Suns last season. But as the odds for the 2021 Brownlow Medal suggest, the teenager is expected to have a breakthrough campaign this year.

Gold Coast supporters haven’t had much to get excited about in recent years, but Rowell could change that in 2021. That said, the Brownlow Medal is probably out of reach.

Travis Boak (18.00)

Travis Boak capped off a superb individual campaign by sealing the third All-Australian call-up of his career last year. The midfielder is closing in on 300 appearances for Port Adelaide, making him one of the most experienced players in the league.

With 435 disposals, 217 kicks, and 218 handballs, Boak’s all-round game was second to none in 2020. Statistics like that naturally make him a solid outside bet to win the 2021 Brownlow Medal.

Jack Steele (21.00)

Having finished joint-third on the Brownlow leaderboard last season, Jack Steele’s price of 21.00 to win this year’s award seems very generous.

The St Kilda star chipped in with an admirable 11 goals in 2020, as well as topping the disposals, handballs, and contested possessions charts for the Saints.

If Steele can replicate last season’s performances, he could upset the 2021 Brownlow Medal odds.

Tom Mitchell (21.00)

Tom Mitchell got his hands on the Brownlow Medal in 2018, meaning he knows what it takes to secure the award.

Mitchell – and the Hawks – haven’t had a lot to shout about over the past couple of years, so I would be surprised if Titch troubled the 2021 Brownlow favorites.

Betting on the 2021 AFL Season

Richmond and Carlton will kick off the new campaign, with the annual season-opener set to take place at the MCG on Thursday, March 18.

The Tigers are the favorites to defend their premiership crown in 2021, but when it comes to betting on the Brownlow Medal winner this year, defending champion Lachie Neale is the bookmakers’ pre-season favorite.

However, the last man to win back-to-back medals was Robert Harvey – and that was all the way back in 1998! When you consider that record, backing a Brownlow sleeper in 2021 may not be a bad idea.

For more AFL betting information, check out my betting preview for the 2021 AFL season.

Early Betting Preview for the 2021 AFL Season

Like many other sports around the world, the 2020 AFL season was ravaged by the pandemic. Following a ten-week lay-off, the previous campaign was reduced to 17 rounds, with the Tigers clinching their third premiership in four years. But in 2021, the AFL...

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