Betting on 2020 US Senate Races – Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets
The US Senate races are hotting up in one of the most important political showdowns in the history of the United States. But will the Democrats score big, or is it the Republicans who will hold the power?
If you have an opinion on questions like these, you’ll probably be happy to know that you can bet on the 2020 Senate races. I’m assuming you know you can bet on the 2020 presidential election too, right?
The sheer volume of wagers placed on this year’s races looks to make it the most popular of all time. There are more and more bettors looking to make money betting on the key races to the Senate than in any other election we have seen to date.
And that’s understandable, given how scrutinized Donald Trump’s administration has been in the mainstream media. The POTUS is the most famous human being on the planet right now, so with that comes a lot of attention.
As for the Senate races in 2020, you can probably imagine what is at stake. Democrat Joe Biden is hoping to secure the presidency, of course. But when winning the presidency does not guarantee that he will get to enact his party’s policies, there comes pressure. In order to realize his ambitious agenda, the Democrats will have to regain control of the Senate from Republicans. And that’s easier said than done.
The Senate map is wide and expansive this year, with so much at stake for the winners. Things are getting heated right now, and as such, there is plenty of betting odds to work with.
If the question is can you make money betting on the Senate races, then the answer is yes. But as I will explain, some bets have a lot of potential while others should be given the wide berth.
Let’s start with the odds for the Senate races and go from there.
Latest 2020 US Senate Races Odds By State
|State||Betting Favorite||Betting Underdog|
|Alabama||Tommy Tuberville (R) -800||Doug Jones (D) +450|
|Alaska||Dan Sullivan (R) -260||Al Gross (I) +180|
|Arizona||Mark Kelly (D) -600||Martha McSally (R) +350|
|Colorado||John Hickenlooper (D) -700||Cory Gardner (R) +400|
|Georgia||David Perdue (R) -200||Jon Ossoff (D) +160|
|Iowa||Joni Ernst (R) -150||Theresa Greenfield (D) +110|
|Kansas||Roger Marshall (R) -400||Barbara Bollier (D) +250|
|Kentucky||Mitch McConnell (R) -1500||Amy McGrath (D) +850|
|Maine||Sara Gideon (D) -350||Susan Collins (R) +225|
|Michigan||Gary Peters (D) -300||John James (R) +200|
|Montana||Steve Daines (R) -180||Steve Bullock (D) +140|
|North Carolina||Cal Cunningham (D) -160||Thom Tillis (R) +120|
|South Carolina||Lindsey Graham (R) -300||Jaime Harrison (D) +200|
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The odds above were taken from MyBookie on October 29 and are subject to change.
Safest Bets for Republican Winners
I’ve chosen three Republican runners that should all be safe bets ahead of the Senate races.
Interestingly, I chose just two Democrats, but I will get to those later. First, let’s start with Kentucky’s Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, who I believe is the safest wager I can find on the top political betting sites.
Mitch McConnell – Kentucky (-1500)
The esteemed Republican legislator’s chances of holding his seat look as close to a sure thing as you can get in the Senate elections.
His re-election campaign has been very popular with CEOs of S&P 500 companies, too. At $258,880 as of October 27, McConnell had more donations from S&P 500 CEOs than any other candidate running.
The Senate Majority Leader’s influence is no secret. His efforts in setting the Senate agenda has helped his polling forecast numbers as high as 96% with some publications.
Tommy Tuberville – Alabama (-800)
Former college football coach Tommy Tuberville holds a healthy lead over US Senator Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate race.
Democrat Jones struck gold when he won a special election in 2017 but looks highly likely to lose his seat this time around. Polls show that the former federal prosecutor faces an uphill task to win in 2020, and classes the Alabama seat as the GOP’s most likely win.
Roger Marshall – Kansas (-400)
The simple fact that a Democrat has failed to win a Senate seat in Kansas 88 years should make you feel good about this bet.
Still, some believe that 2020 is the year when all that could change.
Republican Senator Pat Roberts has retired, and Democratic state Senator Barbara Bollier is fancied to push Roger Marshall. Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach lost the primary to Marshall, but Bollier’s fundraising efforts — which broke a record earlier this month — are encouraging.
But I can’t see this longtime red state wilting.
Safest Bets for Democrat Winners
I have just two safe bets for the Democrats ahead of the Senate races.
Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean that there are no more bets to play with. That is entirely up to you. However, I would be cautious of betting hard on any blue candidate other than the following pair.
Want to know what's at stake this #election? If #Republicans lose the #Senate, #socialist #BernieSanders will become Budget #Committee #Chairman. If we hold the Senate, and #LyndseyGraham (R-SC) is re-elected, he will be Budget Committee Chairman. #DemocratsAreDestroyingAmerica pic.twitter.com/3K47cU0Om3— Nina Radcliff (@DrNinaRadcliff) October 26, 2020
John Hickenlooper – Colorado (-700)
Republican Senator Cory Gardner has been in choppy waters for quite some time, and with too many balls to juggle, I can’t see him holding off Hickenlooper’s attack.
With Colorado trending Democrat, Hickenlooper is a solid wager to add to your list of the best Senator races bets. Even though Gardner won against a blue incumbent in 2014, his promises to work with Democrats on sustainable energy measures were ultimately undone by his support for Trump.
Hickenlooper wins this race.
In two weeks, the Supreme Court will hear arguments about the future of the Affordable Care Act. By voting to confirm Amy Coney Barrett, Cory Gardner has put the health care of millions of Coloradans in serious jeopardy. pic.twitter.com/7mWhAPtKFC— John Hickenlooper (@Hickenlooper) October 28, 2020
Mark Kelly – Arizona (-600)
Martha Sally is in the mix again, having lost to Kyrsten Sinema by the slightest of margins two years ago.
McSally faces former astronaut and husband of Gabby Gifford, Mark Kelly.
When Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to the late John McCain’s seat, despite previously losing against Sinema, things felt a bit strange. But her chances against Kelly don’t appear to be bettered by that appointment.
Arizona is continuously shifting to the left, according to trends. And with Kelly, the Democrats have a candidate that has literally gone to space and back for them.
When you’re orbiting the Earth at over 17,500 miles per hour and you’ve got a problem, there’s no room for politics – you just work together to solve it. pic.twitter.com/FhSYNver5a— Captain Mark Kelly (@CaptMarkKelly) October 28, 2020
The Best Value Senate Races Bet
- Michigan – Gary Peters (-300)
Although Michigan was expecting a tighter race than recent trends are suggesting, Peters looks set to win convincingly against Republican John James.
Peters holds a ten-point lead over James at the time of writing, which is a huge jump from the 3.1% he held in early September. If this data is correct, we could see a very convincing win for Peters.
Don’t expect these odds to be around much longer.
Senate Races Bets to Avoid
- North Carolina
First up is Maine, a state where the Democrats have been doing very well in the polls.
Democrat Sara Gideon is hoping to flip Senator Susan Collins’ seat and is hopeful that Trump’s unpopularity in the state could help that. But even though the polls are strongly in favor of Maine House speaker Gideon, split-ticket voters could see long-time incumbent Collins edge her out.
In North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham’s odds are -160 to Thom Tillis (+120). Despite also being ahead in the polls, it’s difficult not to question voters’ reaction to Cunningham’s affair sexting scandal earlier in October.
And finally, Montana is another market that I am not particularly comfortable betting on.
Republican Steve Daines (-180) is squaring off with Democrat Steve Bullock (+140), and both are neck and neck in polls. Staunchly independent rather than being assumed to be pro-red, this contest is extremely hard to read.
I will definitely avoid this market.
Wagering on the 2020 US Presidential Election
My colleagues have been looking for the top bets for Trump vs. Biden, and everything else related to betting on US presidential elections.
We have covered all kinds of topics on our politics blog, so make sure to check those out before you go! Oh, and I have also added a few of our most requested pieces for you to sample, below.
Whether you are looking to bet on the 2020 election — or just read about some of the more interesting aspects involved in the race for the White House — we have you covered!