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Betting on the 2019/20 EPL Golden Boot Race

| June 8, 2020 2:43 am PDT
Premier League Top Scorer

Following much deliberation, the 2019/20 Premier League season is scheduled to restart on Wednesday, June 17. But with so much attention on how the campaign will be decided, it feels like this season’s EPL Golden Boot race has slipped under the radar.

Jamie Vardy currently tops the charts with 19 goals. However, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang leads a chasing pack of six players separated by just three goals, so the race to be crowned the Premier League top scorer is set to heat up in the coming weeks.

With the resumption of the campaign just around the corner, I view this as the perfect time to take an in-depth look at the EPL Golden Boot Race. After assessing the odds and analyzing the favorites’ chances, I will share my predictions and pick with you.

If you’re interested in betting on the 2019/20 Premier League Golden Boot race, you’ve come to the right place.

Latest 2019/20 EPL Golden Boot Odds

Here are the latest 2019/20 EPL Golden Boot odds, courtesy of 10Bet.

Jamie Vardy2.85
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang4.50
Sergio Aguero6.00
Mohamed Salah6.50
Sadio Mane15.00
Marcus Rashford17.00
Harry Kane17.00
Danny Ings19.00

Vardy (19) currently sits two goals clear of Aubameyang (17) in the EPL goalscoring charts, while Aguero and Salah are locked on 16 goals. Danny Ings has 15 goals to his name, with Mane and Rashford both on 14. Despite only scoring 11 goals so far this season, the bookies have still chosen to include two-time Golden Boot winner Kane in this market.

At first glance, Mane’s odds of 15.00 stand out. I also really like the look of Aguero at 6.00. Vardy is the obvious favorite at 2.85, but a lot can change from now until the end of the season.

Let’s take a look at each players’ chances.

Vardy’s Time to Shine?

At the turn of the year, Jamie Vardy was 2.00 to win the Golden Boot. The Leicester striker scored 17 goals in the opening 19 games of the 2019/20 Premier League season and was looking unstoppable.

However, after netting against Manchester City just before Christmas, he failed to score a league goal until March. The birth of his daughter and a minor injury saw Vardy miss a couple of games, but a seven-game goalless run between December and February was his longest goal drought in over three years.

The 33-year-old scored a double against Aston Villa in the final game before the break, taking his overall count to 19. The fact that he still sits two goals clear of his nearest challenger speaks volumes about his blistering start to the campaign.

Interestingly, 15 of Vardy’s 19 EPL goals this season have been scored against teams currently sitting in the bottom half of the table. The Foxes return with back-to-back games against relegation strugglers Watford and Brighton before facing Crystal Palace and Bournemouth on the home stretch, so the clinical striker will surely add to his tally in the coming weeks.

Players of Vardy’s current age are usually winding down their careers, but the veteran has been given a new lease on life under Brendan Rodgers. He will no doubt be desperate to finish what he started and win his first-ever Golden Boot.

Can Aubameyang Do It Again?

After being made to share last season’s Golden Boot with Liverpool duo Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang began 2019/20 on a mission to secure the prize all to himself this time around. Arsenal’s main man bagged seven goals in as many games at the start of the campaign. But as his team underperformed, the goals dried up.

To say that the Gunners had lost their way under Unai Emery would be a massive understatement. But when Mikel Arteta replaced Emery as manager in late December, Aubameyang wasted no time in getting back to his best.

The Gabon international has netted six goals in eight league appearances since Arteta took over. The new coach’s style of play clearly favors Aubameyang, so I’m sure he’ll be eager to return to action and start chasing down Vardy.

It’s worth pointing out that Aubameyang’s league goals are pretty much split down the middle, with nine coming at the Emirates and eight scored away from home. Despite the uncertainty surrounding neutral venues and empty stadiums, you can almost guarantee that he will find the back of the net, irrespective of the situation.

Remarkably, you could get odds of 15.00 in early February for Aubameyang to finish the campaign as the division’s top scorer. If you backed him then, well done! But his current price of 4.50 is still decent at this stage of the season.

Will Aguero Scoop the Prize?

Given his frightening goalscoring record, you will probably be surprised to hear that Sergio Aguero has only won the Golden Boot once during his eight full seasons in England’s top tier.

The 32-year-old shot to the top of the charts after netting eight goals in the first six games of the 2019/20 campaign. But a barren spell between September and December — not helped by a four-game injury layoff — saw him add just one goal to his tally.

However, what sets Aguero apart from his rivals is his ability to consistently score numerous goals in a single game. In fact, no player has racked up more hat-tricks in EPL history than the Argentine.

Aguero’s price in the Golden Boot market was 15.00 at the turn of the year. But a run of six goals in three games in January fired the Manchester City star back into contention. His odds have now dropped to 6.00, and that’s a testament to his proficiency.

There is no denying that Aguero is the most efficient forward in the Premier League. He has only played 1401 minutes this season, averaging a goal every 88 minutes. By contrast, Vardy has played 2224 minutes (117 minutes per goal) and only has three more goals than Aguero.

Man City’s final six games of the campaign are against six of the current bottom eight teams. It’s easy to imagine Aguero stringing together another one of his familiar goalscoring streaks and clinching the Golden Boot, isn’t it?

Three in a Row for Salah?

Mohammed Salah has been nothing short of sensational since joining Liverpool in 2017. “The Egyptian King” has scored 70 goals in 100 league appearances for the Reds and has won consecutive Golden Boots in the past two seasons.

But can he join EPL legends Alan Shearer and Thierry Henry and become only the third player to finish as the Premier League’s top scorer for three seasons in a row?

Well, there is a feeling that Salah hasn’t been at his best this term, but I don’t wholly agree with that. After all, it was never going to be easy for him to maintain the level he reached in the previous two campaigns. Salah currently sits level with Aguero on 16 goals and is only three behind Vardy, so you’d be foolish to write him off.

The only issue is whether Jurgen Klopp chooses to play Salah in every game from now until the end of the season. Liverpool’s unassailable 25-point lead at the top of the table means that the title is likely to be secured soon after the restart, and with the possibility of an unbeaten campaign out the window, the manager could rotate his squad.

The champion-elect doesn’t exactly have an easy run-in. Liverpool returns with the Merseyside derby before games against Man City, Arsenal, and Chelsea. Still, Salah has proved time and again that he is one of the most potent forwards in world soccer, so I don’t think he’ll be too fazed by the difficulty of the Reds’ upcoming fixtures.

Do Any of the Outsiders Stand a Chance?

We’ve had a look at the frontrunners. Now it’s time to assess the outsiders’ chances to win the Golden Boot.

Sadio Mane

Considering that Sadio Mane is only two behind Salah in the EPL goalscoring charts, I’m surprised by the vast difference in the Liverpool forward’s prices. Of course, Salah’s overall record is far superior to that of Mane. But the Senegal star has arguably outshone his teammate this season.

Many believe that Mane is now Liverpool’s most important attacking threat, but that doesn’t necessarily make him the team’s main source of goals. Mane’s unselfish approach has seen him notch up nine league assists this term, far more than any of his Golden Boot rivals.

Mane lacks a true striker’s instinct, and although odds of 15.00 are bound to attract a lot of attention, I can’t see him outscoring the division’s elite marksmen.

Marcus Rashford

Marcus Rashford’s flying start to the season saw him surpass his previous best EPL tally for a single campaign before the turn of the year. The Manchester United youngster netted 14 goals in 22 league appearances, but a serious back injury abruptly ended his promising run.

Rashford was initially ruled out for the rest of 2019/20. However, the unexpected break in the season has enabled the 22-year-old to make a full recovery.

It’s difficult to know whether Rashford will instantly be able to pick up where he left off, but Man Utd’s favorable run-in will certainly aid his comeback. A run of six straight games against bottom-half teams presents Rashford with the perfect opportunity to rediscover his form.

A future Golden Boot winner, perhaps? But the five-goal gap between Rashford and Vardy suggests that he may have to wait a little while longer.

Harry Kane

Before the season got underway, Harry Kane was the bookmakers’ favorite at 5.50 to win the Golden Boot. But following an injury-hit campaign, you can now get odds of 17.00 for the Tottenham striker to finish as the division’s top scorer.

Kane has recently returned to training and is expected to be fully fit when the season resumes. But with 11 league goals to his name this term, the England captain has a mountain to climb in order to challenge the EPL’s top scorers.

You can’t rule him out altogether just yet. Indeed, he claimed back-to-back Golden Boots a few years back and is widely regarded as one of the best finishers in the game. Still, even if Kane does start finding the back of the net on a consistent basis, he will struggle to overtake his rivals.

Danny Ings

It goes without saying that Danny Ings is enjoying the season of his life. Let’s be honest, nobody expected the former Liverpool flop to be in the Golden Boot conversation this term. But with nine games remaining, he is only four goals behind Vardy.

13 of Ings’ 15 league goals this season came during a 16-game hot-streak between September and January. Since then, the Southampton striker has only managed to score one in seven appearances, so the unexpected break could have given him time to recharge the batteries and come back stronger.

Prior to the start of the 2019/20 campaign, Ings was 201.00 to finish as the Premier League’s top scorer, so it’s remarkable that his price is now at just 19.00. Don’t get me wrong, he’s had a phenomenal season up to now. But winning the Golden Boot is probably out of his reach.

2019/20 EPL Golden Boot Prediction and Pick

I think we can rule out the four outsiders straight away. There is a significant jump from Salah’s price of 6.50 to Mane at 15.00, and although that gap may seem a bit drastic, it’s probably fair.

Mane has had an outstanding campaign, but I can’t see him finishing above the likes of Vardy and Aguero. Meanwhile, Rashford and Kane are both returning from lengthy injuries, so they are likely to need time to find some form.

With all due respect to Southampton, I’d be amazed if Ings won the Golden Boot. Saints have been struggling in the bottom half of the table for much of the season, and Ings has massively overachieved.

Vardy is the clear favorite, while the odds for Aubameyang, Aguero, and Salah are closely matched. Each of the four frontrunners has an excellent chance of winning this season’s Golden Boot. However, I can’t help but sway towards Aguero at the very attractive price of 6.00.

The legendary Argentine striker will resume the campaign three goals behind Vardy. But if his minutes-per-goal ratio is anything to go by this season, he could easily overtake the Leicester man by going on one of his trademark goalscoring runs.

Man City’s run-in is by no means easy. But after games against Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool, Pep Guardiola’s side will face six of the current bottom eight. Even if Aguero is a few goals off the pace with six games remaining, I could see him hunting down whoever is ahead of him.

As things stand, Vardy clearly has an advantage. However, if you’re looking for value, I highly recommend backing Aguero.

Pick
  • Sergio Aguero to Win the 2019/20 EPL Golden Boot
    6.00

Wrap-Up

Well, there you have it. After taking everything into consideration, I can’t look past Aguero.

Do you agree with my prediction? Or do you think Vardy will hold on? Whoever you’re backing, make sure you place your bets with the top-rated soccer betting sites online.

And if you’re looking for more content like this, why not check out our soccer blog?

Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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