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Bet Against Lamar Jackson to Win NFL MVP at Your Own Risk

| December 5, 2019 12:08 am PDT
2019 NFL MVP Betting - Why Lamar Jackson is a Lock to Win

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens weren’t kidding when they suggested before the 2019 NFL season started that their offense would be something we’ve never seen before.

People called Jackson a running back playing quarterback. They said prior to his draft that he was better off playing wide receiver. He wasn’t accurate. Nothing he or the Ravens were doing was sustainable.

Maybe some of that is true. Perhaps none. It doesn’t really matter.

What Jackson is doing, has done, and surely will do before the 2019 NFL season is over will go down in history as one of the greatest individual seasons ever.

It may not convince you to bet on the Ravens to win it all this year, but it should lock in Lamar Jackson as your top wager to win the 2019 NFL MVP award.

2019 NFL MVP Betting Odds

Lamar Jackson -275
Russell Wilson +250
Deshaun Watson +1000
Aaron Rodgers +2500
Patrick Mahomes +2500
Michael Thomas +5000

I fought it for most of the year. I pulled for Patrick Mahomes. I gave into the Aaron Rodgers mid-season surge. I bought into Russell Wilson.

It was all worthy of consideration. Heck, if anyone does have a faint argument to go up against Jackson, it still would be Wilson. But I’m here to tell you that Jackson has me convinced. He’s the 2019 NFL MVP, and it’s not particularly close.

The ship has sailed on buying Lamar Jackson NFL MVP shares at a discount. Everyone — including the top NFL betting sites — has wised up. Jackson’s numbers and the 10-2 Ravens are now collectively impossible to ignore.

I mean, the guy mustered just 105 passing yards against the 49ers and still found a way to dominate them and win the game.

That route included over 100 yards rushing — a feat he’s remarkably accomplished four times at the time of this writing. It seems Jackson sets a new mark for the NFL record books each time out, with his most recent imprint being the first player to pass for 4+ touchdowns and run for 50+ yards in successive games.

Jackson is special because he’s excelling as a passer (66.5% completion rate and 25 touchdown passes) but also running unlike any quarterback in league history.

He’s also doing this.

Thaaaaat’s not something we see quarterbacks do.

Everyone thought last year was impressive. Jackson took over for a struggling (and injured) Joe Flacco and executed an extremely run-heavy Baltimore offensive attack. It got the Ravens into the playoffs, but there was no way Baltimore could maintain that type of offense.

Right?

They wouldn’t have to thanks to Jackson’s elite execution through the air, but his ability to burn defenses at every level is part of the reason Jackson can keep dominating as a runner.

Jackson jumped from 695 yards and five rushing scores to where he is now — 977 rushing yards and seven touchdowns — and that’s in just 12 games.

With four games to go, Jackson is a borderline lock to smash Michael Vick’s single-season rushing yardage record for a quarterback. Cam Newton’s 14-score quarterback rushing touchdown record is probably safe, but given Jackson’s season, nothing is off limits.

Before the 2019 NFL season is over, Jackson looks like a solid bet to top 3,000 passing yards and 30+ touchdowns as well. Not bad for a running back, huh?

Who Can Stop Lamar Jackson?

His name is Russell Wilson. He’s Jackson’s only real threat, and it’s not even close.

And he really is a threat. His Seattle Seahawks are just as good (10-2), while Wilson is right behind Jackson in touchdown passes and presently leads the league (26) in touchdown passes.

Wilson has elevated a Seattle team not many pegged as a true title threat before the season began. He’s done so with a blistering 111.1 quarterback rating (third-best in football), a 67.4% completion rate, and just four interceptions.

Unlike Jackson and so many other quarterbacks, Wilson has excelled to this point despite being under constant duress. He’s absorbed the 5th-most sacks in the NFL, and he came into the year without long-time trusted wide receiver Doug Baldwin at his disposal.

Wilson’s season isn’t better or more impressive than Jackson’s, though.

It’s quite arguable that Wilson is the next-best bet or that he’s underrated. I’ll give you both, but he doesn’t offer the same crazy rushing stats Jackson does, and when these two faced off earlier in the year, Jackson’s Ravens won the head-to-head meeting.

There is still time for Wilson to make up ground on Jackson. However, it’d take quite the explosion through the air, as Jackson’s year-end numbers when you factor his rushing prowess are going to be nearly impossible to overcome.

Is Lamar Jackson Going to Win NFL MVP?

Yes, yes he is.

Russell Wilson isn’t a bad pivot bet at +250, but he’s still going to bring you a losing wager. And as inviting as some of the other prices are, the other options just haven’t had the production to truly compete with Jackson.

Rodgers is right up there with everyone else in touchdowns, but he’s had some really bad games. Deshaun Watson’s numbers are very good, but he hasn’t been quite as dynamic as Jackson, and his Texans got demolished by Jackson’s Ravens.

Mahomes is an insane betting value by name alone. Last year’s clear-cut MVP winner looked to be on pace for a repeat performance early in 2019, but an injury and some floor games slowed him down.

In another year, Mahomes would be in the mix. But in 2019, he can’t even beat out Russell Wilson, and it’d be tough to guarantee he’d be ahead of Watson or Rodgers, either.

Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook were at one time fun longshot bets, but their NFL MVP stock has disintegrated. The only remaining longshot wager worth a cursory glance is Michael Thomas, who has his Saints at 10-2 and has a real shot at breaking the single-season reception record.

But a wide receiver winning NFL MVP? I’m not buying that.

The reality is the NFL MVP tends to be pretty obvious. It’s not necessarily always the best player on the best team, but it’s the stat-stuffing season that can’t be denied.

Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Patrick Mahomes won three of the last four awards, and their individual stat lines were painfully obvious. The fact that their insane production led to elite team success (all three at least advanced to their conference title game) was just the cherry on top.

I don’t know if the Ravens really are the best team in the NFL, but it’s getting awfully hard to suggest they’re not. Wins over the 49ers, Patriots, and Seahawks are of the statement-making variety, and they’ve all been accrued with this unsustainable, flawed running back leading the charge.

I mean, who haven’t Jackson’s Ravens beaten?

If for no other reason than Baltimore’s success and Jackson defying the would-be logic spewed out by the masses, he’s the NFL MVP. If you want to base things strictly off of passing, he’s neck-and-neck with Russell Wilson.

Throw in the ridiculous Madden-type rushing numbers he’s posting, and betting on Lamar Jackson to win the 2019 NFL MVP is a slam dunk.

Pick
  • Lamar Jackson
    -275
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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