Best Tom Brady Prop Bets for Super Bowl 55

| February 1, 2021 10:07 am PDT
Tom Brady Prop Bets at Super Bowl 55

There are a million ways to bet on Super Bowl 55. In the props market alone, the selection is massive. Narrowing the focus to specific bets tied to the Buccaneers starting quarterback, there is no shortage of opportunities.

Rather than sift through several posts trying to find a bunch of Tom Brady prop bets for Super Bowl 2021, I’ve got you covered right here.

The plan is to lay them all out, so they’re in plain view; the rest is up to you.

Will Brady Attempt to High-Five an Official?

Yes +600
No -1500

Don’t expect to see TB12 trying to high-five a referee after being denied in the Divisional Round.

Brady will be all-business once he steps onto the gridiron on Super Bowl Sunday. The problem is, there’s no money to be made when you have to lay -1500. This is more or less a novelty bet hoping to inject some amusement into potential bettors.

Tom Brady First Passing Attempt

Completion -215
Incomplete +175
Interception +1600

I was about to lock in “completion” at -215 fairly nonchalantly, but then I got out the shovel. After digging through the numbers, here’s what I tracked down.

  • Tom Brady ranked 19th in the NFL in completion % during the regular season (65.7%)
  • Tom Brady is completing just 55% of his passes this postseason (13th out of 14 playoff QBs)

As far as the first pass he has attempted in each of the Bucs three playoff games, here’s what happened.

Opponent Tom Brady’s First Pass Target
@ Washington Incomplete Chris Godwin
@ New Orleans Complete Cameron Brate
@ Green Bay Complete Mike Evans

The two throws to Godwin and Brate were of the short variety, while the completion to Mike Evans was a 27-yard beauty on 3rd and 4 after opening with two running plays.

If only we knew what Byron Leftwich was going to dial-up for Tom’s first attempt of the game.

Tom Brady Number of Passing Attempts

Over 39.5 -125
Under 39.5 -105

The best way to approach this wager is the same with all Super Bowl betting props in 2021. Gather as much data as possible and make educated assumptions.

For this particular Tom Brady Super Bowl bet, let’s look at how many passes he has thrown in previous Super Bowls, as well as this season in the Buccaneers system.

Tom Brady – Passing Attempts in the Super Bowl
Super Bowl Opponent Attempts
Super Bowl 36 Rams 27
Super Bowl 38 Panthers 48
Super Bowl 39 Eagles 33
Super Bowl 42 Giants 48
Super Bowl 46 Giants 41
Super Bowl 49 Seahawks 50
Super Bowl 51 Falcons 62
Super Bowl 52 Eagles 48
Super Bowl 53 Rams 35

That’s an average of 43.56 passing attempts per Super Bowl.

In terms of this year with Byron Leftwich calling the plays as opposed to Josh McDaniels, Tom clocked in with 38.13 passing attempts per game during the regular season. That number has been tempered down to 36.33 in the three playoff games.

  • 40 Attempts vs. Washington
  • 33 Attempts vs. New Orleans
  • 36 Attempts vs. Green Bay

Note that all of the safest Super Bowl betting apps have set this line at 39.5 attempts. You just have to decide if you like the over or the under.

Tom Brady Number of Completions

How aggressive you get with this bet is up to you as XBet has installed three different lines.

Over 22.5 Completions -190
Under 22.5 Completions +140
Over 25.5 Completions +100
Under 25.5 Completions -130
Over 28.5 Completions +140
Under 28.5 Completions -190

Let’s look at a similar table as in the last prop, only this time we’ll zero in on the number of passes Tom has completed.

Tom Brady – Completions in the Super Bowl
Super Bowl Opponent Completions
Super Bowl 36 Rams 16
Super Bowl 38 Panthers 32
Super Bowl 39 Eagles 23
Super Bowl 42 Giants 29
Super Bowl 46 Giants 27
Super Bowl 49 Seahawks 37
Super Bowl 51 Falcons 43
Super Bowl 52 Eagles 28
Super Bowl 53 Rams 21

A quick punch into to calculator tells us that Brady has averaged 28.44 completions per game during his nine trips to the Super Bowl. That’s more than he’s generated on a per-game basis in Tampa Bay.

Tom averaged 25.05 completions/game in the 2020 regular season and checks in at 20 completions per game so far in the playoffs.

Tom Brady Longest Completion

Once again, XBet has delivered three separate lines. As if betting on Tom Brady props wasn’t captivating enough, including multiple options helps serve to the masses.

Over 33.5 yards -190
Under 33.5 yards +140
Over 39.5 yards -115
Under 39.5 yards -115
Over 45.5 yards +110
Under 45.5 yards -150

The illustration below gives us a frame of reference.

Tom Brady’s Longest Pass Each Game This Season
Game Against Longest Completion
Week 1 Saints 37
Week 2 Panthers 50
Week 3 Broncos 47
Week 4 Chargers 48
Week 5 Bears 35
Week 6 Packers 31
Week 7 Raiders 35
Week 8 Giants 25
Week 9 Saints 22
Week 10 Panthers 44
Week 11 Rams 18
Week 12 Chiefs 48
Week 14 Vikings 48
Week 15 Falcons 46
Week 16 Lions 47
Week 17 Falcons 47
Wild Card Round Football Team 36
Divisional Round Saints 29
NFC Championship Packers 52

CLICK TO CLOSE

If there’s one major takeaway here it’s that Brady’s longest pass this season was a 52-yarder to Chris Godwin the last time out.

Tom’s longest pass during the regular season was 50 yards – 38 other quarterbacks completed at least one pass of at least 51 yards. On the other hand, Brady has completed a pass of at least 46 yards in 9/19 games.

Tom Brady Total Passing TDs

This bet is straightforward enough, although there are three different ways to go about placing the wager. The first is at MyBookie where the following odds are available.

Over 1.5 Passing TDs -230
Under 1.5 Passing TDs +160

Next up is at BetUS.

Over 2.5 Passing TDs +150
Under 2.5 Passing TDs -180

Finally, the oddsmakers at BetOnline have set up this Tom Brady prop a bit differently.

2 TD Passes +175
3 TD Passes +275
1 TD Pass +300
4 or More TD Passes +375
0 TD Passes +800

Including the playoffs, Tom has suited up 19 times for Tampa Bay. Here’s the breakdown of how many touchdowns he’s thrown in each.

  • 1 game with 0 TD Passes
  • 2 games with 1 TD Pass
  • 4 Games with 3 TD Passes
  • 4 Games with 4 or More TD Passes
  • 8 Games with 2 TD Passes

Tom Brady TD Passes By Quarter

Maybe you don’t have the patience to wait the entire game to see if your Tom Brady prop bets cash. Head to SportsBetting.ag and you won’t have to.

You can bet on how many touchdowns Brady will toss in each quarter, separately.

Tom Brady Total TD Passes in the 1st Quarter

Over ½ TD Passes +155
Under ½ TD Passes -185

Tom Brady Total TD Passes in the 2nd Quarter

Over ½ TD Passes -115
Under ½ TD Passes -115

Tom Brady Total TD Passes in the 3rd Quarter

Over ½ TD Passes +125
Under ½ TD Passes -155

Tom Brady Total TD Passes in the 4th Quarter

Over ½ TD Passes +100
Under ½ TD Passes -130

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards

Over 301.5 -115
Under 301.5 -115

Tom’s 289.6 passing yards/game this past year ranked third in the NFL, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Brady threw for 345 yards versus Kansas City in the regular season – one of eight games this season (including playoffs) he has thrown for more than 340 yards.

Ironically, he’s also got six games throwing for fewer than 240 yards.

For a look at his passing yardage totals in his previous nine Super Bowls, this graphic does the trick.

Tom Brady – Passing Yards in the Super Bowl (315.33 passing yards/game)
Super Bowl Opponent Passing Yards
Super Bowl 36 Rams 145
Super Bowl 38 Panthers 354
Super Bowl 39 Eagles 236
Super Bowl 42 Giants 266
Super Bowl 46 Giants 276
Super Bowl 49 Seahawks 328
Super Bowl 51 Falcons 466
Super Bowl 52 Eagles 505
Super Bowl 53 Rams 262

This one just really depends on game flow. Chances are the Bucs are going to need to score a minimum of 25 points to even sniff the Lombardi Trophy, and that means Brady will be dropping back plenty.

That should amount to yet another 300+ yard performance.

What Will Tom Brady Do First?

Throw a Touchdown -325
Throw an Interception +250

Given Tom’s attention to detail and ability to guide the Bucs offense, I want no part of any wager that relies on Brady throwing any picks. The question to ask if laying -325 is a fair price that a touchdown comes before an interception.

At first glance, I think it’s reasonable enough.

With that being said, Tom did throw a couple of INTs against KC back in week 12. However, both came after he had already reached pay dirt through the air.

Betting the Tom Brady Super Bowl Props

Accounting for the varied odds attached to the Tom Brady Super Bowl props, as well as the unique bets being offered at each bookmaker, it’s crucial to be active at all of the best sites. That’s where this guide comes in – a page dedicated to showing you how and where to bet on the 2021 Super Bowl.

Have fun dabbling with the wagers revolving around the GOAT, but make sure you don’t assign all of your funds to Brady bets alone. There are a plethora of other Super Bowl prop bets that’ll capture your attention.

Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

More Posts by Michael Contact Michael Michael on Twitter

LEAVE YOUR COMMENT

*