Hide Bonus Offers

Best Prop Bets for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2021

| July 2, 2021 9:10 am PDT

The 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest arrives on July 4th, just in time to fire up the grills, celebrate our Independence, and watch some people gorge themselves.

It sounds gross – and it is – but it’s also a lot of fun. If you play your cards right, you can even bet on the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest and win some cash.

So far, there haven’t been odds for who will win (at least in the traditional sense), but I did hand out my 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions.

You can use my picks in the event regular betting odds prop up. For now, the best way to bet on the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest may be to take advantage of some fun props.

Here are the best ones that stand out, their odds, and my pick.

How Many Hot Dogs Will Joey Chestnut Eat?

  • 73-74 (+165)
  • 75-76 (+200)
  • 71-72 (+225)
  • 77-78 (+475)
  • 66-70 (+650)
  • 79-80 (+800)
  • 81+ (+900)
  • 0-65 (+1500)

If you want to bet on Chestnut winning again (he’s done it five years in a row, 13 times overall), I don’t blame you. However, the only bet that exists right now hands him -5000 odds as the main competition against the Field (+1000).

I don’t really suggest going after that, but luckily there are other ways to bet on Joey Chestnut at the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Top Tip
Perhaps the best way is to guess how many hot dogs Joey Chestnut will eat. It’s largely just guesswork, but it’s worth noting that he broke his own record with 75 last year and has eclipsed 70+ hot dogs five years in a row.

For me, that eliminates any bet not dealing with 70+ hot dogs.

Not only will Chestnut be aware he needs to bring his A-game to fend off some quality competition, but it’s likely he’s again shooting for a new record.

Topping 75 hot dogs feels impossible, though, so I see Chestnut in for a tiny setback. He’ll still probably win, but the 71-72 range feels like the sweet spot. It also offers a nice price at a solid +225.

  • Pick: 71-72 hot dogs (+225)

Badlands Booker Total Hot Dogs Eaten

Under 20.5 hot dogs-150
Over 20.5 hot dogs+110

Fan-favorite Badlands Booker will be back to take down Joey Chestnut in this year’s competition.

He’s mostly there for fun as far as viewers are concerned, but the rapper and competitive eater says he has it all figured out for the 2021 contest.

“Anything can happen. Joey could have a bad day. So yeah, feel free to place your bets. It’s all good.”

I don’t buy that Booker has a real shot this year, and his 20.5 over/under for hot dogs eaten suggests the same. He seems more confident than usual, and he did top this total (22) back in 2017.

This bet is mostly for fun, but there is logic working toward the Over, and that’s where the most value lies, too.

  • Pick: Over 20.5 hot dogs (+110)

Total Hot Dogs Eaten By Matt Stonie

Over 44.5 hot dogs-120
Under 44.5 hot dogs-120

It gets a bit more serious when you start talking about someone like Matt Stonie, who actually has won this contest before.

Stonie hasn’t come close in recent tries, but he’s the last to derail Joey Chestnut. Stonie delivered a shocking performance in 2015 when he consumed 62 hot dogs and beat Chestnut by two dogs.

I am sure Stonie knows he has to up his game for any chance of seeing lightning striking twice.

He ate 46 hot dogs the last time he competed in this contest, and he’s safely topped this total in seven of his last eight tries. History and motivation point to the Over here.

  • Pick: Over 44.5 hot dogs (-120)

Number of Hot Dogs Eaten By Nick Wehry

Over 44.5 hot dogs-120
Under 44.5 hot dogs-120

Some will say Matt Stonie isn’t Joey Chestnut’s biggest threat at this year’s contest; it’s Wehry. That could very well be so, as the 32-year old is an imposing threat that has been as close as anyone else in recent years.

Wehry has learned from the best from the female side, too, as partner Miki Sudo has dominated the women’s competition for the past seven years.

Sudo will be sitting this one out, however, so perhaps Wehry can channel her elite-eating ways.

Whether you believe Wehry can win this year or not, there is no denying he’s on the upward swing. The bodybuilder and trainer has improved his intake in each of his last three tries.

  • 2020: 39.5 (3rd)
  • 2019: 36 (6th)
  • 2018: 31 (10th) 

Maybe he makes a big leap here – and history suggests he might, but a jump to 45 hot dogs seems like a bit of a reach. I’d hammer the Under here.

  • Pick: Under 44.5 hot dogs (-120)

How Many Hot Dogs Will Geoffrey Esper Eat?

Over 47.5 hot dogs-120
Under 47.5 hot dogs-120

Another potential threat to the throne of Joey Chestnut is Esper, who skipped out on the competition last year, but ate a solid 47 hot dogs in 2019.

Esper had been somewhat in the mix before that, topped 41 hot dogs in 2018 and 2017, as well.

He’s another competitive eater that is trending in the right direction, although it’s anyone’s guess what a year away from the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will mean for him.

Ultimately, I’m eyeing the Under here. Esper has proven his worth, but he’s never eclipsed 48 hot dogs in this contest before.

  • Pick: Under 47.5 hot dogs (-120)

Which is Said First: Kobayashi vs. GOAT


You can search high and low for more 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest props that deal with individual eaters, among other things.

Other prop bets could be fun, though, and this one deals with what phrase or word will be said first during the broadcast.

Kobayashi is the favorite compared to GOAT, as it’s referring to former champion Takeru Kobayashi.

He last won in 2006, but he’s just as big of a star as Chestnut and at one point won six contests in a row. Chestnut ended his reign in 2007, while Kobayashi was his main threat for three more years before taking his career in another direction.

Kobayashi isn’t part of the contest anymore, but he’s still a legend. I don’t doubt the broadcast may refer to Chestnut as the “GOAT” of competitive eating at some point, but probably not before they touch on the original superstar that made this contest so huge.

  • Pick: Kobayashi (-150)

What Will Be Said First: World Record vs. Miki Sudo

World Record-150
Miki Sudo+110

This one seems a bit more obvious. The “world record” reference has to do with Joey Chestnut trying to eat even more hot dogs this time out, and of course, Sudo is the reigning seven-time women’s champion.

Both phrases will be uttered during the broadcast, but Sudo isn’t competing this year. While some will say that makes it less likely to have her name spoken, the analysts will get that out of the way pretty early and establish that a new women’s champion will be crowned.

It’s also worth noting that the female contest starts first, so any discussion involving Sudo’s impressive run will likely precede Chestnut’s potential shot at a new world record.

  • Pick: Miki Sudo (+110)

2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Advice

There are certainly plenty of other prop bets for the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest that you’ll want to consider.

Most that you don’t see here are unlikely to be too rewarding, however, as I hand-picked the best props that actually have a chance to win bettors money.

There should be several ways to bet on the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, but the props above may be the best path to success.

You can pick and choose which wagers you target, and the best part is you don’t even have to hitch your wagon to one eater.

I do think there is a time and place for betting on who will win the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, of course. I touch on that in my predictions post linked at the top of this article, while I also answer some general questions in my 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest preview.

This is a fun, loose contest for viewers, but there is money to be made here. Hopefully, my picks and predictions help you in that plight. Whatever the case, enjoy this year’s contest, and happy betting!

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

More Posts by Noah Contact Noah



Back to top