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Best Prop Bets for Match 4: Phil Mickelson & Tom Brady vs. Bryson DeChambeau & Aaron Rodgers

| June 14, 2021 8:44 am PDT

The stage is set for the fourth iteration of “The Match.” Phil Mickelson, still riding high from his triumph at Kiawah Island, will team up with Tom Brady and go to battle against the duo of Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers to raise money for various charities.

Why not “raise a little money” of our own? Just as they did for the previous golf exhibition matches, the top bookmakers have produced a slew of prop bets for Match 4.

I’ll offer a few more basic details about the festivities before unleashing all of these wagers.

Details of the Match 4

  • Where: The Reserve at Moonlight Basin – Big Sky, Montana
  • When: Tuesday, July 6, 2021
  • Coverage: 5:00 PM ET on TNT
  • Format: Modified Alternate Shot

One of the lushest and most scenic golf venues in the country will be on full display on the first Tuesday in July.

Secluded from all noise and obstructions, the Reserve at Moonlight Basin is an exclusive Jack Nicklaus design nestled in the Montana mountains at 7,500 feet of elevation.

While Mickelson and Brady are linked up for the second time in 14 months (lost to Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning in Match 2), DeChambeau and Rodgers make their debuts in the series presented by Capital One.

What’s Modified Alternate Shot?Teams select their best drive after each man tees off. From there, each pair alternates hitting shots
until the hole is completed.

All four players will be mic’d up and there will be plenty of back-and-forth banter. As the competitors trade barbs and contemplate side bets, we can stay captivated by diving into all the Match 4 props.

Which Team Will Win Hole #1?

  • Mickelson/Brady: +325
  • DeChambeau/Rodgers: +265
  • Tie: -150

#1 is a medium-length par-4 (at elevation) that bends a little to the left – it’s a fairly benign opening hole that should allow both teams to kick the party off with reasonable-to-good looks for birdie.

Tie is the easy pick, but what is the fun in laying -150 with so many unknowns?

If you’re leaning one side over the other in the overall (to win) market, bet that side to win the first hole and enjoy the additional upside.

Which Team Will Be Leading After 3 Holes?

  • Mickelson/Brady: +225
  • DeChambeau/Rodgers: -180
  • Tie: +170

The second hole at the Reserve at Moonlight Basin is another medium-length par 4, this time curving slightly to the right. There’s a large bunker protecting the right side of the green that will swallow up any approach shot that leaks.

It’s not an easy hole, but again, not a major advantage either way.

#3 is where things get interesting and where we can grasp our first bit of an edge. The 206-yard par-3 3rd requires a well-struck iron shot to a smallish green that perches from right to left.

PGA Tour Par-3 Scoring Average in 2020-21
Player PGA Tour Rank
Bryson DeChambeau 13th
Phil Mickelson 167th

On the flip side, -180 is a steep number for as small of sample size as three holes are. For that reason, and that reason alone, my pick is “tie” at +170.

Which Team Will Be Leading After 6 Holes?

  • Mickelson/Brady: +160
  • DeChambeau/Rodgers: +110
  • Tie: +300

The 6th hole is an accessible par-5 that Bryson and Phil can let the big dogs eat. Having said that, it’s easy to lose focus stepping onto the tee box after soaking in the surroundings of the par-4 5th.

What’s interesting is we are being forced to lay money to back DeChambeau and Rodgers in all of the other “leading after X hole markets.”  The fact that we can latch onto the so-called “better team” at plus-money here is enough to capture my attention.

Which Team Will Be Leading After 9 Holes?

  • Mickelson/Brady: +175
  • DeChambeau/Rodgers: -120
  • Tie: +400

Regardless of what transpires during hole no.’s 1-8; look for drama to ensue when the foursome embarks on the par-5 ninth. It remains to be seen whether or not the back tee box is utilized (651 yards), but #9 is far from a slouch even if they’re playing one box up (616 yards).

A massive water hazard short and right of the green means a well-positioned tee shot is the only hope of getting home in two shots.

Those who will be cheering on Lefty and the seven-time Super Bowl champ, this could be your most advantageous spot. Team Mickelson/Brady’s +175 price tag to be leading after nine holes is significantly more favorable than their number to be the last team standing.

Will 18 Holes Be Played?

  • Yes: +100
  • No: -140

As much as the suits at TNT would love to see this thing drag out to the 18th hole, more often than not, match-play duels don’t wind up going the distance.

Just go back to the last time we saw Phil Mickelson and his partner taking one of the great quarterbacks of all time.

Phil and Charles Barkley throttled Steph Curry and Peyton Manning 4&3 at Stone Canyon Golf Club in Oro Valley, AZ. That match ended on the 15th green.

I’ll say that the match ends before the 18th hole, but I’m torn about placing the wager. Why?

Because I at least want to see the match extend to number 17 and watch Bryson aim for a 500-yard drive.

Will Bryson DeChambeau Hit a 450+ Yard Drive?

  • Yes: -170
  • No: +130

Fans want to see big drives – expect the fairways to be firm and fast offering plenty of run-out. If Bryson gets to the 17th hole and hits one straight, forget about hitting one 450 yards.

At 7,500 feet elevation playing a hole that tumbles some 200 feet downhill, one of Bryson’s bombs could travel 500+ yards with ease.

In the event the match is closed out before players reach #17, DeChambeau will have encountered plenty of opportunities to “grip it and rip it.”

Will Phil Mickelson Hit a 375+ Yard Drive?

  • Yes: +110
  • No: -150

If Bryson is going to sniff 450 yards elevation, you better believe Lefty can poke it out there at least 375. Mickelson reached back plenty of times Sunday at the PGA Championship and smoked it past Brooks Koepka.

Remember, Phil is utilizing a 47.9” driver that’s pushing the limits of the rules of golf. And you know he’ll be swinging for the fences in an exhibition.

Of all the Match 4 props, this is the one I am most eager to bet.

Who Will Hit the Longest Drive?

  • Tom Brady: -150
  • Aaron Rodgers: +110

This is a fun one. Once Match 4 was announced, TB12 wasted little time taking a shot at Aaron Rodgers.

I haven’t picked Rodgers over Brady for 20 years, why would I start now?

Those who watched Tom in Match 2 at Medalist Golf Club remember him struggling at the outset, but they also remember him settling into a groove as the day wore on. Those who tuned into the 2020 American Century Classic remember seeing Aaron fire rounds of 78-77-81 en route to tying for 16th place.

Team to Get the First Birdie

  • Mickelson/Brady: +105
  • DeChambeau/Rodgers: -145

I am a sucker for the plus-money on bets like this – ones that have lots of variables and turn into virtual toss-ups. Especially in an alternate shot format where Bryson’s propensity to make birdies is somewhat negated.

Whereas many of these Match 4 prop bets can be found at numerous bookies, MyBookie and XBet are the only two places I’ve spotted this particular wager.

Who Will Win Match 4?

Match 4 Odds
Players BetUS MyBookie BetOnline
Mickelson/Brady +145 +110 +133
DeChambeau/Rodgers -175 -150 -170

All the best golf betting sites feature this bet, although as you can plainly see, the pricing isn’t consistent. Be sure to shop the Match 4 odds around before you lock in your pick.

As for my predictions for the match between Mickelson/Brady and DeChambeau/Rodgers, I’m going with the twosome that’s seeking redemption. Coming off a loss versus Woods/Manning, the last thing Phil and Tom want to do is see their record together fall to 0-2.

Accounting for Super Bowl victories and major championships won, give me the team that’s leading 13-2.

Final Thoughts About Betting on Match 4

In the end, Match 4 is about raising money for charities and putting on a show for the fans. Think of this four-hour display as good entertainment, but don’t be shy about getting money down on a variety of props.

I hope I was able to unlock some of the value and steer you toward a profitable Tuesday evening.

The biggest takeaway is rather than get too caught up with who will be leading after X number of holes, target Mickelson hitting a drive 375+. It’s the safest bet on the board, and it just so happens that the bookies will lay the juice for you.

Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

More Posts by Michael Contact Michael Michael on Twitter

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