Best Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana

I don’t know why, but I can’t quite quit the big upset for the headlining act in MMA DFS. Riding the heavy-hitting Paulo Costa wasn’t the only gaffe I had last week, but it was just one of two.

Had I gone with Israel Adesanya and made one other move, I could have had a perfect lineup.

The good news is most of my MMA DFS picks delivered. The bad news is it wasn’t good enough for me (and probably you) to cash.

The goal remains the same for another fun event, which features two nasty female fighters at UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana.

What a way to start off my MMA DFS picks, right? Condit has been in abysmal form for some time now, losing five consecutive fights (3 by submission). The guy literally has not won a UFC match in five years.

The good news? He last fought in December of 2018, so he is as fresh as can be. That poor form could be behind him, and he also isn’t facing a murderer’s row of elite fighters.

This time around, he gets Court McGee, who isn’t that imposing. Not only does he have an equally bad form with a 1-4 record over his last five bouts, but he hasn’t put anyone away since 2016.

This is very even, but Condit is a living legend that has to turn it around eventually. Am I getting sucked in by name recognition and the hopes of a comeback? Maybe, but I like the value too much to ignore it.

The reality is Condit is either washed, or he’s destined for a rally. He has immense finishing ability, and this is arguably his easiest bout in quite a long time. McGee, meanwhile, has never knocked anyone out in the UFC.

Condit isn’t done yet, and clearly has bigger fish to fry.

Carlos Condit on ‘intriguing’ rematch with Nick Diaz: ‘I want to see that fight’ (by @KristenKingMMA) https://t.co/bjpQj6Mx4o

— Bloody Elbow (@BloodyElbow) October 1, 2020

In-house MMA betting expert Adam Haynes isn’t aligned with me here, of course. For an in-depth breakdown of this bout, check out his Carlos Condit vs. Court McGee betting preview.

From value to elite, we go. So it seems, at least. We don’t know much about Todorovic at a high level, as this will be his official UFC debut. He’s undefeated (9-0), and he’s been pretty dominant with five career KOs, and three of them coming in his last four fights.

I’m intrigued by Todorovic for two reasons; he’s a good striker that keeps pressing, and he’s facing a guy in DeQuan Townsend that appears to be fading.

Townsend has 12 KOs of his own, but he hasn’t taken anyone out with his fists since 2017. He’s also lost each of his last three fights, suffering his first KO defeat in June of 2019.

Todorovic is going to have a coming-out party here. His goal is much bigger than that, too.

VIDEO: @DuskoSecutor wants to be 'Novak Djokovic of MMA' in Serbia #UFCFightIsland4 https://t.co/D02Osor5Zm

— MMAFighting.com (@MMAFighting) September 30, 2020

These debuts can either go horribly, or we can unearth a potential star. He has no qualms with standing up and enhancing blows, and although the sample size is small, he appears to enjoy the contact, provided he gets an opening to unleash his own.

This is the type of risky brawler we want in daily fantasy MMA, as his style can lead to early finishes and a lot of significant strikes. Townsend’s poor defense, weak form, and inability to defend takedowns make him extremely vulnerable in this spot.

Adam Haynes writes up pretty much every fight before each UFC event, and he does an awesome job assessing odds, matchups, and coming away with UFC predictions.

We don’t agree on the outcome of every fight (and sometimes MMA DFS demands you to get a little creative), but we are aligned with this bout, as we both have Jordan Williams.

You can see things get a bit more detailed in his Jordan Williams vs. Nassourdine Imavov betting pick. The skinny, though, is Williams is a nasty striker with the ability to finish anyone at any time.

GIVE. ME. MY. CONTRACT.

Jordan Williams left no doubt with this knockout ? #DWCS pic.twitter.com/L4lq3SRw4F

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) September 16, 2020

And he wants that contract, baby.

Williams owns seven KO wins in his career, with two coming over his last three bouts. Imavov is a bit more versatile and has never been knocked out, but there’s a first time for everything.

As Haynes notes, Williams is the more experienced fighter at this weight, meaning we can probably trust how his power and striking translates.

Condit is risky, I’ll admit that. But if you follow my daily fantasy MMA picks column, you know I’m not afraid to take some chances. You can stick with me in that regard, or you can make pivots as needed.

I’ll close out this week’s MMA DFS lineup with Else, Aldana, and Jourdain.

Else is legit as heck. He is a vicious, extremely active fighter that has rebounded from sloppy losses earlier in his career. He is on fire right now with six consecutive wins – all by round-one stoppage – and I doubt he slows things down in his UFC debut.

I love the value there, and it allows us to pay up for Jourdain. This is a guy who is just as aggressive, and he loves contact. He’s battled two two decision losses over his last three fights, but he’s never been sent to the mat, and all 10 of his career wins have come by stoppage.

Lastly, we can get a piece of the headlining act and back Aldana. Haynes has her winning, and I agree, as Holly Holm is more a gatekeeper than an actual title threat at this stage of her career.

That doesn’t mean Holm can’t win, but Aldana has the versatile skill-set to keep Holm at bay, and she displayed her KO power in her last fight. She’s a rock-solid way to close out this week’s MMA DFS picks.

If you want to roll the dice a bit and bet on any of these matches, check out the top UFC sportsbooks.