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Best 2021 NFL Draft Props to Target Early

| February 17, 2021 11:04 am PDT
Early Props for the 2021 NFL Draft

The top NFL Draft betting sites have wasted no time pushing out some early props for the 2021 NFL Draft.

Super Bowl 55 is barely two weeks old, but it’s onward and upward, with 31 NFL franchises looking to do what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just did.

Some teams have a long way to go before they can contend, but that’s precisely what makes getting the draft right so important.

It’s also pretty important for sports bettors, as nailing 2021 NFL Draft prop bets can bring back some serious cash. Most NFL prop bets lack upside, but that isn’t always the case when betting on the NFL Draft.

More props will trickle in as the April 29th draft date draws closer, but there is still a good amount of time until then. To give you an idea of what’s out there, let’s check out the best early 2021 NFL Draft props to target online.

Who Will Be Drafted 1st Overall?

Trevor Lawrence-5000
Justin Fields+1200
Penei Sewell+1800

Uh, doy. Lawrence is the easy call here, and if you weren’t sure, his -5000 odds at basically any sites where you bet on the draft tell you that.

Lawrence has been regarded as the most complete quarterback prospect in years, so it only makes sense that he’s the runaway option in this specific draft.

Of course, as unlikely as it’d be for someone to be selected ahead of him in the 2021 NFL Draft, there is still a little logic to him not being the first overall pick.

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Connecting the dots between Fields and Meyer stands out as the most realistic reason why Lawrence wouldn’t be the top pick. It’s also worth noting that he has a shoulder issue at the moment.

While it’s always fun to add a little drama to the situation, Lawrence is the easy call here.

Sadly, there’s just no money to be made in hammering him at his -5000 price. I’d toss a little money on Fields due to the Urban Meyer connections or just bypass this prop altogether.

Odds for 2nd Overall Pick

Zach Wilson+120
Penei Sewell+175
Justin Fields+225
Trey Lance+500

It’s probably not worth asking who will be the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft anymore. Betting on it makes even less sense.

The 2021 NFL Draft prop that does stand out, however, is for the pick immediately following what is almost surely Lawrence to the Jacksonville Jaguars at #1 overall.

That feels like a lock, but then what?

There isn’t the usual consensus these days, as there are actually several enticing prospects that could hear their name called at second overall.

The guys listed above are the best bets, however, and with the New York Jets picking at #2 and badly needing a quarterback upgrade, it stands to reason that’s the position they target.

New Jets head coach Robert Saleh is on record in praising incumbent starter Sam Darnold, but he’s almost certainly just not trying to paint himself into a corner.

All three quarterbacks listed here have a shot, but Zach Wilson probably has the best combination of arm talent and overall athleticism.

Who Will Be Selected 3rd Overall?

Justin Fields+200
Penei Sewell+225
DeVonta Smith+350
Ja’Marr Chase+4350
Rashawn Foster+500
Zach Wilson+500
Trey Lance+1200

It gets even dicier from here, as you can bet on who will be taken with the third pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, but the list of possibilities grows longer.

Miami is currently set to pick at the three spot, but if Tua Tagovailoa is believed to be their franchise passer, they couldn’t possibly pick a signal-caller here.

Could they?

There have been negative whispers about Tagovailoa for over a year now, so anything is possible. Both Justin Fields and Trey Lance stand out as high upside pivots off of the injury-plagued Tua, after all.

The Dolphins could kick Tua to the curb, or they could invest further into him by beefing up their pass protection or maybe even land him a stud offensive weapon.

Sewell likely stands out the most here to help Miami’s offensive line, which traded away Laremy Tunsil last year. DeVonta Smith and Ja’Marr Chase would also be amazing additions to a passing attack that lacked a true difference-maker beyond DeVante Parker.

The other option – and one I think may make the most sense – is Miami trades this pick. A recent mock draft at PFF illustrates this possibility rather nicely.

All of these options are on the table. If you think Miami stays at the three spot, I doubt they take a quarterback, and Sewell and perhaps Chase look like the play. If they trade it, Fields heats up at a cool +200.

Which QB Will Be Picked Second?

Zach Wilson-175
Justin Fields+150
Trey Lance+175
Mac Jones+1600
Trevor Lawrence+2500
Kyle Trask+5000

There is merit in betting on who will be drafted second and third overall, but the better prop may just be predicting which quarterback comes off the board after Lawrence.

Just make sure you’re considering the main factors.

  • Quarterback talent
  • Where teams are picking
  • Team need

Who is the best quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft after Trevor Lawrence? Maybe you don’t even think Lawrence is the top guy in the first place.

How these two narratives clash – and how the actual draft plays out – could open things up quite nicely for sports bettors. You then want to factor in which teams are in line to pick following the first quarterback selection and whether they need a new passer.

As things stand, I firmly buy Lawrence to the Jags at #1, and I doubt the Jets trade out of the second spot. That places Zach Wilson in New York’s crosshairs.

Here’s a nice breakdown as to what the Jets should do in the 2021 NFL Draft. My guess is the franchise is out on Sam Darnold, which should shift their focus to Wilson.

Betting on 3rd QB Selected

Justin Fields+125
Trey Lance+125
Zach Wilson+150
Mac Jones+1000
Kyle Trask+5000
Trevor Lawrence+5000

Things get even trickier in trying to predict which quarterback will be selected third at the 2021 NFL Draft.

You can apply the same logic to the previous NFL Draft prop, but at this point, you do need to consider a few extra aspects.

  • Could a big trade happen?
  • Team need
  • Player stock

I don’t foresee the Jaguars or Jets trading out of the first two picks, but as I touched on earlier, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Miami trades down.

You’ll want to assess how likely it is that the Dolphins trade out of the third spot, as well as their top potential suitors in any prospective deal.

Once you’re locked into a potential trade partner, you can then gauge what position they’re trading up for.

In addition, keep tabs on player draft stock. Fields is the best bet to be the third passer taken as I write this, but it’s always possible Wilson falls a bit or Trey Lance’s stock skyrockets.

When Will Najee Harris Be Drafted?

Over 32.5 Pick-150
Under 32.5 Pick+110

The 2021 NFL Draft props dealing with specific picks are fun, but they don’t offer much wiggle room. That may create more interest in props like this one concerning Najee Harris.

Instead of needing an exact pick to be correct, when so many things can contribute to you being wrong, you just need Harris to fall into a specific window.

This bet asks if he’ll be selected within the first 32 picks (in round one) or if he’ll go after and slide into round two.

Harris is a total monster, so don’t just shrug off the fact that he plays a devalued running back position.

Just look at what he did at Alabama the last two seasons.

Year Rushing Attempts Rushing Yards Yards Per Carry Total Touchdowns
2020 251 1,466 5.8 30
2019 209 1,224 5.9 20

Yeah, he’s a beast.

Someone will want that dude, and even in a loaded running back draft class, it would not be that shocking to see a team trade back into the first round to snag him.

Kansas City did it to nab Clyde Edwards-Helaire last year, after all.

Which Players Will Be Selected First?

I’ll leave you with a string of player vs. player NFL Draft props. It’s early in the 2021 NFL Draft process, so some of these may not make sense later, or they could end up being flat-out steals if you bet on them now.

That, and there will surely be many more 2021 NFL Draft prop bets just like these. Even so, let’s look at the first few being pushed out among the early 2021 NFL Draft props at the top sportsbooks.

Ja’Marr Chase vs. DeVonta Smith

Ja’Marr Chase-130
DeVonta Smith-110

Another NFL Draft prop that is popular and typically fairly easy to get right is player vs. player draft props.

You just need to correctly bet on which player is taken first, and you win.

In this case, you have what figure to be the two best wide receivers in the 2021 NFL Draft. Separating them isn’t that easy due to their elite talent, but they both have two knocks.

Smith’s is his lack of ideal size, while Chase sat out the entire 2020 college football season.

ESPN’s Mel Kiper cited the latter as a pretty big issue potentially.

“Ja’Marr Chase opted out, so Smith and Chase are battling to see who the first receiver taken will be.”

Indeed. My early instinct is that Chase offers more upside and is the better prospect, but Smith was a monster in 2020. That year off could hurt Chase in the eyes of GMs, too.

Kyle Pitts vs. Jaylen Waddle

Kyle Pitts-250
Jaylen Waddle+170

Most of these 2021 NFL Draft props will feature players that play the same position, but this one has a tight end (Pitts) battling a wide receiver.

Waddle isn’t even necessarily a top-two wide receiver in this draft class, but it’s hard to push him out of the top three.

The tougher decision would be to properly assess when and where Pitts will get drafted. Tight ends aren’t held in high regard in the NFL for some reason, and even the good ones tend to slide on draft day.

Pitts is just such a mismatch, as he has a lethal combination of size, hands, catch radius, speed, and athleticism.

Yeah, he’s good.

I’m not sure I’d feel great about betting on a tight end being taken off the board before Waddle, but if there is one, it’s Pitts.

Penei Sewell vs. Rashawn Slater

Penei Sewell-500
Rashawn Slater+300

If you’re looking for early 2021 NFL Draft prop bets to target online, here’s one last good one.

This one feels much more obvious than Pitts going before Waddle, as Sewell stands out as the best offensive lineman in this year’s draft class.

Rashawn Slater is another fine offensive lineman, but he has a few things working against him.

  • He sat out 2020
  • He lacks size
  • He’s not as good as Sewell

That’ll do for me. The price is nice at BetOnline, but it may not be enough to get me to take the dive.

Sewell is so talented that he was, at one point, appropriately in the running to be the first pick in the draft. I wouldn’t get cute here, even though the -500 odds don’t excite me.

Summary

This is just a collection of the early 2021 NFL Draft props to target online right now. The odds will surely change, and the wagers themselves will fluctuate.

The sheer number of 2021 NFL Draft prop bets will grow exponentially prior to the April 29th event, while there will be impressive wager versatility and a litany of other players included in the betting.

A lot can happen between now and the draft.

The league won’t be conducting business as usual with the 2021 NFL Combine canceled, though, so the meteoric rise and fall you usually see for prospects in mock drafts and rankings will have to happen due to other reasons.

It’s because of this that information will be scarce, but this also opens the door to major value for bettors. In some spots, it will be advantageous to place bets now and hope things hold, and for NFL Draft props that emerge later, there could be ridiculous value to be had.

How, when, and where you bet on the 2021 NFL Draft is ultimately up to you. Just make sure you use the best 2021 NFL betting sites when you do so.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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