Assessing the World Series MVP Odds – Where Is the Betting Value?
Just as I predicted way back in December, the Nationals and the Astros will meet in the 2019 World Series. I just had a hunch that the two teams with the best pitching rotations in baseball would clash for all the marbles.
Well, here we are, and boy, do we have one heck of a matchup lined up. Noah Davis wrote a 2019 World Series betting preview where he offers his prediction, and I’m here to chime in with my two cents on who will win this year’s World Series MVP award.
My Spring Training AL MVP pick of Alex Bregman at +900 has a real chance of paying off, so let’s see if I can crack the code on another MLB futures bet by targeting World Series MVP betting!
World Series MVP – Odds to Win
If you look at the World Series odds, you shouldn’t be surprised that the first six names on MyBookie.ag’s betting sheet each wear an Astros uniform. Houston is the clear-cut betting favorite to win the Fall Classic, but counting the Nationals out is a mistake that I am not prepared to make.
If you are in the same camp as me and think the Nats are destined to be the last team standing, you’re going to love the value associated with a couple of the names below.
World Series MVP – Sleepers to Consider
For the sake of argument, anyone listed below Juan Soto (+1600) at the MLB betting sites are the guys I consider sleepers.
Trea Turner (+2000)
The Nationals shortstop provides a terrific balance of speed and power from the leadoff spot, and he hit an impressive .292 off right-handed pitching in 2019. Despite missing 39 games with a broken finger, Turner racked up 35 stolen bases to go along with 37 doubles and 19 home runs.
Bottom line — Turner has been getting it done all season at the top of Davey Martinez’s lineup.
Yordan Alvarez (+2000)
Talk about an imposing left-handed bat. The Astros rookie outfielder has a chance to apply some serious pressure on the Nationals. If there is one guy in the Houston lineup who has the ability to change the complexion of a series with one swing of the bat, it’s Yordan Alvarez.
Yuli Gurriel (+3300)
With as many perennial All-Stars as the Astros have on their roster, you can argue that Yuli Gurriel is as dependable as any. Here’s a guy who hit .298 with 31 jacks and 104 RBIs, yet nobody ever mentions his name in Space City. If Yuli is able to square up the barrel of his bat a few times against the Nationals, he’ll no longer remain incognito.
Ryan Zimmerman (+6600)
Wouldn’t it be fitting if the Nationals all-time leader in virtually every important batting statistic was named as the MVP during the team’s first trip to the World Series? Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .290 for Washington thus far in the postseason, but I have a feeling he is saving his best for the upcoming series.
Predicting Who Wins the World Series MVP
Now that I’ve showcased a few sleepers, it’s time to zero in on who will walk away with the award. Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander finished “1-2” in the strikeout totals, so either of the Astros aces is obviously a fine choice. Then again, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg have each been wheeling and dealing and have shown zero signs of slowing down.
If I had to narrow it down and bet on just one pitcher, I’d lean toward Stephen Strasburg. The value at +1400 is glaring when you look at what he’s been up to lately.
With that being said, nine of the last ten World Series MVPs have been handed out to position players. Madison Bumgarner (2014) was the last pitcher to claim the honors, and Cole Hamels (2008) is the only other “non-batter” to win the WS MVP in the last 15 years.
Who Is the Astros’ Best Hitter?
I don’t even think skipper A.J. Hinch could answer this question with certainty as so many names immediately come to mind. Jose Altuve and George Springer have delivered in the clutch for this team before, as has Carlos Correa.
Alex Bregman is the front-runner to win the AL MVP, Michael Brantley led the team in batting average during the regular season, yet I alluded to Yuli Gurriel being the most reliable batter for the ’Stros.
All of that, and if Houston is able to capture the 2019 World Series, I could see Yordan Alvarez being the biggest reason why!
My World Series MVP Pick
I’m picking the Nationals to win the World Series, so I may as well pick their best overall hitter to take home the MVP award. Forget about Mike Trout and Christian Yelich, and don’t even bring up Cody Bellinger.
In fact, Anthony Rendon might just be the most complete hitter in all of the Majors when you examine the situation closely.
For starters, the dude doesn’t swing at pitches out of the zone, as he’s walked more times in the playoffs than he has struck out. Protected in the order by Juan Soto, Houston will have no choice but to suck it up and try and get Rendon out. If you think a powerful righty like Verlander or Cole will do the trick, know that Anthony’s .316 BA versus left-handed pitching was actually bettered by his .320 mark versus righties.
Washington’s third baseman led the MLB in RBIs during the regular season, he’s batting .375 in October, and he proved in the series against the Dodgers that he rises as the pressure mounts.
Not only is Anthony Rendon clutch, but his consistency across the board gives Dave Martinez a bonafide leader he can count on.
He sounds like a great World Series MVP to me.