Assessing the Odds for the Next Country to Leave the EU

| September 9, 2021 10:16 am PDT

On January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom became the first nation in history to leave the European Union.

Brexit was finally over and dusted following the 2016 referendum on EU membership which saw the people have their say. At one point, the political oddsmakers were offering -450 on the British voting to remain in the union, so the result was stunning for many.

The Brexit fracas is over, but questions remain over the stability of the union. The most prominent of them all is, who will leave the EU next?

With the bookies offering odds on the next country to leave the European Union, I thought it would be a good time to look over the prices. Is there value in the French breaking away from the EU? Could Italy follow the Brits, and turn their back on Brussels?

Let’s examine the possibilities in what should be a popular EU betting market.

Odds for the Next Country to Leave the EU

If you’re looking for odds for the next country to leave the European Union, BetOnline has a comprehensive list.

I’ve cut things off at Croatia. Should you wish to find odds for the remaining members, head on over to the sportsbook and check out those odds.

There are a few countries such as Finland and Belgium at +1000, with Germany and Ireland huge outside bets at +2000 apiece. 

As things stand, this is one of the most popular European Union betting markets online. That’s despite the bookies offering a paltry -900 that no other EU member will leave before 2025.

There are reasons for the oddsmakers holding firm. The same can be said about why they believe that Italy is the most likely country to leave the EU next.

If you’re looking to bet on the next EU nation to break away, do all roads lead to Rome?

Italexit – Will Italy Leave the EU Next?

Despite being touted as the next country to depart, betting odds for Italy to leave the European Union are rather sizeable at +900.

But is “Italexit” more than just an innocuous portmanteau at this stage? I don’t think so.

Euroskepticism has been steadily growing in Italy over the past decade. Much of that has been attributed to illegal migrants entering the country and putting a major strain on the Italian economy.

The Schengen Agreement means that open border movement has made it easier for migrants to enter the country, but many Italians feel as though the EU has done nothing to help with the growing crisis.

In July 2020, the Italexit Party was launched by former Five Star Movement (M5S) founder and journalist, Gianluigi Paragone.

Having met with Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage — a hugely important figure in the UK’s withdrawal from the EU — Paragone announced his intention to break Italy away from the union in a similar fashion to the British.

Paragone was expelled from the party he founded when it linked up with the pro-EU Democratic Party in government. His ambitions might seem out of step with reality, but the same was said about the Brexit party before the movement gathered traction in the lead-up to the 2016 referendum in the UK. 

Known for his controversial but transparent views on immigration, the author of Invasion: How Foreigners Are Conquering Us and We Are Surrendering, is looking to tap into anti-EU sentiment to push Italy out of the union.

You can read the Italexit Party’s Manifesto if you’re looking to understand its aims and goals.

Paragone has aligned himself with Brexit mastermind, Farage.

Italy Could Leave the EU Next

Italy’s place in the European Union is a hot topic among citizens. Euroskepticism is rife right now and continues to grow in light of the devastation of the coronavirus.

Many citizens are unhappy with the European Union’s handling of the pandemic as a whole, but the topic of compulsory vaccinations has not gone down well.

The incumbent government is debating on compulsory COVID-19 vaccinations for all citizens over the age of 12. 

“If we will not have reached a vaccination level between 80% and 90%, we will pass a law to impose the Covid-19 vaccine to all people against it.”Italian Public Administration Minister Renato Brunetta

Naturally, this has led to a massive outcry from anti-EU leaders and sympathizers.

Many in the southern European nation reacted badly to a 2017 bill requiring schoolchildren to receive various vaccinations. If this bill is passed, it’s only natural to see support for the Italexit Party to surge.

Remember, the Italian economy has never fully bounced back from the 2008 global financial crash. The pandemic has only pushed disillusioned Italians further into despair with no sign of the country prospering from its marriage to Brussels.

Gambling on Italy to Leave the EU Before 2025

There are many reasons why Italy features prominently in European Union betting markets. If you’re gambling on the next country to leave the EU, it’s clear that this nation is the odds-on favorite. 

But will Italy leave the EU before 2025? I don’t think so.

It took the British from June 23, 2016 to January 31, 2020 to depart from the union. While you might argue that there were more issues for the United Kingdom to iron out than there would be with Italy, the incumbent Italian government will not put such a referendum to the people. 

The timeframe is far too short to get it done. There is also this to consider.

It’s a no from me.

Betting on Who Will Leave the EU Next

Let’s look at some of the other candidates to leave the European Union after the United Kingdom.

It’s important to reiterate that this market only applies to a nation leaving before January 1, 2025. Just keep that in mind before you gamble on the next EU country to leave the union.

Is there any value in looking past Italy? Let’s see.

Hungary to Leave the EU (+1000)

Enticing odds? Hungary is still lagging when compared to other member states.

A member since 2004, there are clear signs of changes in the country since it joined the EU, with most citizens enjoying access to things that would have been out of the question before.

With that said, the nation is yet to adopt the euro and continues to feel as though it is being crushed under the heavy boot of Brussels. For instance, there are questions over increases to budget repayments that could see the country punished for its refusal to “get with the program” in some departments.

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban has been heavily criticized in recent years. Just this summer, his government was lambasted by the EU parliament for passing a law that bans anyone from the LGBT community from appearing on primetime television or in educational material.

The law has created a further divide between Budapest and the vast majority of the rest of the EU.

Euroskepticism among hardliners is also a major threat to Hungary’s place in the community. By the end of the decade, Hungary is expected to be a net payer in the union, which means there is a risk of the country following the United Kingdom in exiting the European Union.

Orban, leader of the former communist nation, has been clear in asserting that he has no plans to exit the union. But critics have cited that his authoritarian attitude to certain issues could lead Hungary to be pushed out. 

Mr. Orban has repeatedly claimed he has no intention to take Hungary out of the EU by way of the country’s challenges to Article 7. That is highly unlikely to change.

France to Leave the EU (+1750)

Would you bet on France’s odds to leave the EU? Alongside Germany, Paris is key to the union. But could all that change?

In June, regional voters posted the lowest turnout in history as the incumbent president, Emmanuel Macron, was obliterated at the ballot.

Last year, I wrote about how early signs pointed to a two-horse race between Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen in the 2022 presidential election. That was clearly how it looked in 2021, but there is talk in the nation about how we could be in for a major surprise. 

Our recommended political betting sites have Macron as the -138 favorite to win the 2022 French presidential election, with Le Pen at +300. But Xavier Bertrand (+500) is not far behind at all.

Bertrand is heading the French conservatives into a potential upset that could all but solidify France’s place in the EU for the foreseeable future. Perhaps more importantly, it would take the country past the 2025 date when this European Union betting market will expire.

Running on a pledge of an immigration cap is seen as just enough to oust Le Pen, who would almost certainly call for a referendum on EU membership if she was elected in 2022.

Other Candidates to Leave the EU Next

  • Poland (+2000)
  • Malta (+2500)
  • Sweden (+2500)
  • Austria (+2500)
  • Cyprus (+2500)

If you’re betting on who leaves the EU next, Poland should be on your radar.

But “Polexit” doesn’t look like great value at all. Sure, the government’s dissenting approach to some EU policies might be popular with hardline conservatives.

A recent poll suggested that almost 81% of Poles surveyed would vote to stay in the community if a referendum came to pass, and it doesn’t look like the country has any tangible interest in breaking away before 2025.

Next in line is Malta at +2500. 

If I were to consider odds for the next country to leave the EU, I’d pass hard on the Maltese. The “Mexit” group that was launched in 2019 hasn’t gathered much traction at all, and there doesn’t seem to be any major threat to the status quo that would lead to a revolt against Brussels.

The same can be said for Sweden, Austria, and Cyprus who all come in at +2500 in the betting market for the next country to leave the EU before 2025.

Predicting the Next Country to Leave the EU

I’m not really feeling this market, to be honest. Although there are some really appealing odds for the next country to follow Brexit, I just don’t see the timeline as viable.

There is so much bureaucracy involved in breaking away from the EU that it would likely take longer than a few years to get sorted.

The United Kingdom’s exit from Europe did come as a surprise. Never say never, sure. But the long and drawn-out process will have put off a lot of career politicians, who would have no interest in seeing their pay packets and legacies tarnished.

Then there is the sheer power of the EU. This isn’t the secretary of a softball team you’re dealing with here, but one of the most powerful political-economic unions in the history of humanity.

As ominous as it sounds, let’s be real here. They will find a myriad of ways to put any country off the idea of going it alone if it’s in the best interests of the union to keep them under its umbrella.

The Europa Building in Brussels

The bottom line is that no nation will leave the European Union before 2025. Everyone is looking towards the United Kingdom and how it deals with Brexit. That’s going to take some time to gauge, with the global pandemic pushing things back even further. 

There is no frame of reference for any aspiring dissenters. At least, not yet. It’s difficult to measure the success of a nation breaking away from the community with the economic turmoil that has arisen from COVID-19.

Thus, any nations that hold ideas of leaving the EU will likely sit back and wait for things to get back to normal before making a run for it. 

My prediction for the next country to leave the EU is Italy. But it won’t happen before 2025.

You could take no nation to leave before 2025 at -900 in the odds for the next country to leave the EU. But those odds hardly make for a fun bet.

More Political Betting Markets to Gamble On

I don’t see any country leaving the European Union before January 1, 2025.

There is simply too much going on right now in Europe, and the world, for it to happen. Although some are not happy with the EU, there is a lot to be said for stability. Especially at times of great uncertainty.

Brexit will be the measuring stick. But is there a chance that the United Kingdom could rejoin the EU in some radical Brexit U-turn? You can read about it, below.

I’ve also added an interesting piece for betting on the odds for Irish reunification that you might be interested in. 

And if that wasn’t enough, you can find Joe Biden betting specials just below it.

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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