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Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandr Rakic Betting Preview – August 29, 2020

| August 23, 2020 6:58 am PDT
Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandr Rakic 2020

Anthony Smith returns to action against Aleksandr Rakic in what has the ingredients of an all-out war. The pair will contest a three-round main event at UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic on Saturday, August 29 in Las Vegas.

I was a little surprised to see the Smith vs. Rakic odds so heavily in favor of the latter. But I will explain the reasoning for this and what else could influence the best bets for Smith vs. Rakic in my breakdown of the fight.

You know, this fight is hard to predict for many reasons. So, if you’re feeling a little confused about who to back, you’re on the right track already. But every fight must have an ending, and this one will more than likely produce a winner rather than end in a drab draw.

If the question you want to be answered right now is who wins, well, take a look at my Smith vs. Rakic betting preview for my take on things.

Smith vs. Rakic – Who Wins?

  • Aleksandr Rakic to Win 

In a fight that is much closer than the line suggests, I have to give it to Rakic.

Although he is coming off a very contentious split decision loss to Volkan Oezdemir in December, the 28-year-old holds a slight edge in a few important departments.

I’ll expand on my thoughts a little later. Before we do that, I want you to have a look at these odds for yourself.

Latest Smith vs. Rakic Odds

Anthony Smith+245
Aleksandr Rakic-305

Anthony Smith is a great betting value at +245 with MyBookie. If I were looking to bet on him, I’d snap up these odds while they last.

Smith is the #5 ranked light heavyweight on the planet. Despite a lengthy career of 48 fights, he is just 32-years-old. The man went five rounds with the greatest 205-pounder of all time, Jon Jones, in March 2019. He has four stoppage wins either side of the loss to Jones, including submission victories over Volkan Oezdemir and Alexander Gustafsson.

So, +245 you say? I can live with that. But, at the same time, Smith is the underdog here for a reason. If the bookies were to hand out “freebies”, they wouldn’t be in business very long. Once again, I’ll explain everything a little later.

As for Smith, this marks the fourth time in five fights that he has opened as a plus money underdog. The only exception came against Glover Teixeira in May, and Smith, well, got his ass handed to him in that fight.

Rakic has opened as the minus money favorite in five of his six UFC fights. He has been the underdog just once in that timeframe, against Justin Ledet. Rakic went on to win that fight by decision.

Although Rakic’s odds aren’t exactly worth dancing about, I’d rate his chances of winning this one as 60/40. For that reason, Smith’s odds probably are enough reason to dust off that old tutu…

Best Bets for Smith vs. Rakic

Many of the best bets for UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic can be found in the main event. I’m sure of that.

But hey, don’t let me influence you here. Take a look at these bets and make your own decision about what bets make the most sense.

Smith to Win

You can’t look at Smith’s odds (+245) and think that they are anything but great betting value. As touched upon in this betting guide for MMA, value is very important when wagering on the fights.

Smith’s odds alone make him a great bet. Enough said.

Smith to Win by Submission

Smith is a BJJ black belt with a proven submission game, while Rakic is a purple belt that hasn’t really had the opportunity to show what he is made of when taken down.

So, this is where things could get interesting. Sure, Rakic looks to have decent takedown defense, but I’m sure Smith will be tempted to shoot under one of those wide swings and see what he can do from there.

Rakic to Win by KO/TKO

I’m not too crazy about Rakic on the moneyline, as you might have already guessed.

That means being a little more specific with your predictions if you want better odds. One that line of thinking, I’d suggest looking at Rakic to win by KO/TKO.

Rakic is a big, powerful striker that has more than enough power to blast Smith away. And it’s more than likely that this is what he will be looking to do on the night.

Rakic to Win by Decision

Although I rate Rakic’s chances of beating Smith by KO/TKO higher, as this is a three rounder instead of the usual five, we could see both fighters going for the kill.

Rakic is certainly not going to want to leave even a pen in the hands of the judges following his controversial loss to Oezdemir last year, sure. But Smith is tough, and could very well spoil his plans.

Rakic by decision? It makes more sense than taking his short odds, that’s for sure.

Why Rakic Beats Smith

Whatever way you want to look at it, Smith is coming into this fight off the back of a brutal KO loss to Glover Teixeira in May. Is he ready for a guy like Rakic?

Yes, we know he’s tough – Smith had been knocked out eight times before being mauled by the Brazilian veteran – but there comes a time when your ability to take big shots declines. And quite often, it happens without warning.

For Smith, well, he hasn’t always had the best chin. Earlier in his career, he suffered five TKO losses from eight fights. This will also be his 49th career fight, so he has a lot of mileage on the clock.

Even if he is a professional fighter, he’s still human. And getting over the physical and psychological effects of that war with Teixeira might need a little more than just a few months. But, if he says he is fit and healthy – and the Nevada Athletic Commission is happy to sign him off – that’s that.

If you’re putting down on Smith, you will get a great return for your faith. And I have said above, he has the tools to cause Rakic a lot of trouble. But my concern is that we will see the effects of too much hard slog come back to haunt him on the night.

How Rakic Wins This Fight

The Austrian is exciting to watch. He is a big, long, power puncher with some very intimidating striking acumen. The loss to Oezdemir snapped a 12-fight win streak that killed a lot of the hype surrounding him.

But this is a chance for Rakic to get back on the horse. Smith is still a big name in the division and highly regarded by fans, fighters, and pundits alike.

Could we see Rakic intimidated by this? I don’t think so. In fact, I think he will be confident of outstriking “Lionheart” on the night. Perhaps not as convincingly as he did against Justin Ledet in July 2018, when he outlanded his man with over 230 strikes. But he will back himself.

If Smith comes into this one sharp and well-tuned, I could eat my words. But I don’t see him living with Rakic’s power on the night.

I’m going to give the edge to Rakic here. I think he might catch Smith with a wild, swinging shot that ends the fight in the 2nd.

What Do You Think?

This is a fight that could really go both ways, but I’m tipping Rakic to come out on top.

He is fresher, younger, and better rested than his opponent. He has not accrued the mileage that Smith has, and these are things that really matter in this sport.

If you are looking to get your bets on this fight, these sports betting sites have the odds you’re looking for.

So, what do you think? Smith or Rakic? Let me know in the comments section, below!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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