Analyzing the October 11th UEFA Nations League Games – Latest Betting Odds and Free Picks

By Jerry Summer
Published on October 09, 2018
UEFA Nations LeaguePredictions

It’s now time for the second international soccer break of the season, which means there will be no English Premier League betting picks for this weekend.

Instead, I will take a closer look at the latest attempt of UEFA to replace the meaningless friendly games with something that motivates the players to perform and the fans to watch.I’m talking about the Nations League, the new tournament that started in 2018.

I’m not entirely sure that winning will be such a source of inspiration for the bigger European countries, as their international players are involved in too many games and always try to take it easy when there are no World Cup or EURO qualifiers.

Still, the opportunity to qualify for the EURO 2020 through the competition might be enough to see a lot of teams pushing harder, at least compared to friendlies.

If you want to learn more about the potential path and other rules from the UEFA Nations League, I would suggest you check the official site of the competition.

The whole thing is a bit messy, to be honest, so I won’t go deeper than that. With my initial thoughts out of the way, let’s take a look at the first round of games on Thursday and see if there are some interesting matches.

I intend to check the best bookies out there and share my free betting picks and prediction for the UEFA Nations matches on October 11th.

Poland – Portugal

Here are the main betting markets I could find.

Poland to Win2.76
Portugal to Win2.57
Over 2.25 Goals2.00
Under 2.25 Goals1.83

Both teams are quite solid, which is the main reason you will see such close prices. Naturally, Portugal is considered to be a bit stronger, but the home advantage balances the chances of each side and is the other reason why the odds are almost even.

I’m not sure what to think about the under/over goals market. This Group 3 of the UEFA Nations League is the one that has seen the least goals, and Portugal is a side that relies on a strong defense. And yet, some of the names on both teams show an enormous attacking potential if they click up front.

Let’s dig a bit deeper and check what each of the countries has to offer.


Poland is an interesting side that usually manages to shine in the qualifications for the World Cups and EURO finals, and then fails to impress further when the biggest stage comes. From this perspective, it’ll be interesting to see if the team will keep up the good performances or be a bit dull as it happens during finals.

Their first game was a solid one, as Poland managed to draw 1-1 away from home against Italy. It opens the door for winning the group if Portugal is defeated this week.


The question is if Poland has the attacking threat to actually create enough chances against the reigning European champions.

Portugalis notorious with their strong defense, while Poland seems to struggle against teams that play a more conservative style.

On paper, having a striker like Robert Lewandowski and a supporting cast of players like Milik, Zielinski, and Klich should be enough of a threat, but that’s not really the case.

Frankly, I expect the hosts to actually find it hard up front once again. They usually play it too safe and don’t move the ball nearly fast enough or don’t get adventurous enough in the final third.

As a result, it’s hard to unlock teams that stay deep and defend with plenty of men.

If we are about to judge Portugal based on their performances in the past couple of years, this is exactly what we should expect from the nation.


Portugal started the UEFA Nations League campaign with a win against Italy at home. The EURO holders played as expected, keeping it tight at the back for a 1-0 victory. The main weapon of Portugal was the strong defense that Italy failed to beat.

The country missed its top scorer and best player Cristiano Ronaldo in the first round, and the Juventus forward will be out again. In fact, there’s a scandal growing around him, as the Ballon d’Or holder was accused of rape.

The whole situation is dominating the headlines in Portugal to such an extent that even the prime minister felt the need to share his opinion.

Officially, this is not the reason Ronaldo is out of the squad, but I feel that’s exactly the case. In fact, the whole atmosphere is somewhat poisonous because of this, and it certainly should be considered.

It’ll be interesting to see if the scandal will unite the team or disrupt the rhythm, as we’ve seen both in the past. In this particular case, I think we will see a Portugal side that will be eager to play for its captain and leader.

Prediction and Betting Pick

I have the feeling that Portugal is the favorite in this game for two reasons. The first one is related to the styles of both sides. Poland is not effective against teams that defend deep, and this is exactly what Portugal does.

The second one is the psychological factor. The reigning EURO champions will be eager to defend the name of their skipper Cristiano Ronaldo and will play for him.

This is why I intend to back Portugal. BetOnline offers the solid price of 2.57 for the visitors, which is quite tempting. However, I like the safer approach. If you go for Portugal AH 0, you get 1.87 and the chance to get your money back in case of a draw.

This is my final pick, as I expect a tight game and a win for Portugal.Probably 1-0 in their favor is the most likely result.

PICKPortugal 0 AH1.87

Faroe Islands – Azerbaijan

Let’s see what the bookmakers have for this match.

Faroe Islands to Win2.68
Azerbaijan to Win2.58
Over 2 Goals1.99
Under 2 Goals1.84

You won’t often see me share betting picks on League D of the new UEFA competition, but I feel this one provides enough value to make an exception. I’m a bit surprised to see the odds for the Faroe Islands, as the country has been solid at home recently.

At the same time, Azerbaijan is not that much stronger in terms of quality of the squad. I feel the situation is even, but the home advantage is enough of a reason to believe that the Faroe Islands has the better chance to win.

As you already know what to expect, I won’t bother talking a lot about the under/over goals. Generally speaking, teams of such a quality usually struggle to find the net too often, so I can see why the line is so low.

Let’s proceed with the analysis.It will be a bit shorter this time around.

Faroe Islands

The main reason I even looked at this game and the odds is related to the home form of the Faroe Islands. The side is unbeaten in its last five home games and has won three of them.

After years as a punching bag for other European countries, the nation has built something like a fortress at home.

I think the two draws against a decent team like Latvia are the most impressive part of this run, but the Faroe Islands now has a somewhat competitive team, at least when it comes to hosting the likes of Azerbaijan.

The side is capable of keeping it tight at the back and pushing for goals through long balls and set pieces. I expect more of the same this Thursday.


I don’t think there’s much to say about Azerbaijan. The squad consists mostly of players from the local league, and the core is built around members of the country’s soccer champion, Qarabag.

There are no big stars on this team, and the overall quality is not enough for the nation to expect something special.

The start of the UEFA Nations League wasn’t very good, either, as Azerbaijan failed to beat Kosovo and Malta. Both games finished in a draw, and the side scored only once. This highlights the problems up front, and the rather decent defense of the Faroe Islands should be a problem for Azerbaijan.

Prediction and Betting Pick

There’s a cliché that we hear often enough, and it states that there are no weak international teams in soccer anymore. While it goes a bit too far, I understand where it’s coming from, and the Faroe Islands is a good example.

The country has improved immensely recently and is hard to beat at home. A team like Azerbaijan will certainly struggle with this task, so the price of 1.93 for the host 0 AH is great. I expect a 1-0 win for the Faroe Islands, but that option covers the draw as well.

PICKFaroe Islands 0 AH1.93

Final Words

Since the UEFA Nations League has barely started, I feel there are a lot of question marks about the competition,mainly related to the motivation of all the teams that play in it.

This is why I advise you to stick to smaller stakes for the early rounds.

Good luck!

Analyzing the October 11th UEFA Nations League Games – Latest Betting Odds and Free Picks
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Analyzing the October 11th UEFA Nations League Games – Latest Betting Odds and Free Picks
Analysis and betting picks for the UEFA Nations League soccer games on October 11th. Includes Poland vs. Portugal and Faroe Islands vs Azerbaijan.
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