AAF Week 3 Betting – Odds, Lines, Predictions, and Picks
Published on February 21, 2019
Through two weeks, the 2019 Alliance of American Football season has been impressively interesting.
The league as a whole has been quite competitive, while several players have put themselves on the NFL’s radar with some huge performances.
Charles Johnson busted out with an absurd 7-192-1 line in week 2 and probably settles in as the top player to get the ball rolling.
As a guy who ran a 4.39 40-yard dash and at one point looked ready for a big role at the highest level, I can safely say it’s not that surprising.
What is somewhat shocking, however, is that three teams are 2-0 in this league through the first two weeks.
Back to the not-so-shocking side of things: a Christian Hackenberg-led team has yet to win its first game.
Yeah, color me unfazed by that one.
Still, you can go back and forth on a number of AAF topics. The point is this football league has people talking, it has some quality talent, and it’s holding everyone’s attention.
That’s admittedly easy to do for the moment. Die-hard NFL fans just want to see some football. MLB fans are griping over the fact that the 2019 baseball season can’t arrive fast enough, and NBA fans (as I write this) are wading through the murky waters of the All-Star break.
The latter can be fun during the actual All-Star weekend festivities. Once they’re gone, though, you’re left with an ugly stretch of zero basketball games, nothing to bet on, and no NBA DFS contests to compete in.
The true dead period of the sports betting season arrives in May or July (depending on which sports you crave), but if there’s a one-week period to kill your sports-fan soul, this will do the trick.
In other words, we thank the Alliance of American Football — if for nothing else — for giving us something to distract us from the lack of NBA games in our lives.
Weekly AAF betting is what’s going to be the real draw, especially since you should be able to take advantage of spreads, news, and injuries. That’s the hope, of course.
I still think there is value to be had on a higher level, especially with this league so new and so wide open.
The Arizona Hotshots have won in two very different ways to this point and are starting to look like the best team (just as Vegas predicted), but the fact that two other teams have yet to lose a game leaves things completely unpredictable.
And each team still has eight more regular-season games to play before the playoffs. A lot can happen between now and then, so I’d be hesitant to go too hard at any one team. Arizona still offers solid value as a fine favorite, but ideally, you can secure some betting value elsewhere.
Whatever you decide, be sure to hit up the latest AAF title odds. Right now, Bovada is the best AAF betting site if you want to bet on who wins the league championship.
I’m really not interested in placing long-term bets on Atlanta or Memphis at this point. The Express actually put up quite a fight in week 2 against Arizona, but I can’t buy into an offense trying to pretend Christian Hackenberg is an asset.
Those two teams are dead to me (in reference to their AAF title odds) until further notice, but basically everyone else here has at least a slim chance of morphing into the best team in the league.
That’s probably Arizona right now, but I almost would prefer to hold out for a better price. Perhaps with one or two other teams proving their worth over the next few weeks, the AAF championship odds shift enough to offer the Hotshots a bit more value.
Arizona is a fine bet as the favorite right now, of course. They’re undefeated, they have arguably the best quarterback in the league, and they even have a capable defense.
The top threats to Arizona remain Orlando, Birmingham, and San Antonio.
I actually picked the Commanders as my AAF title winner last week, and their price has only gotten better. I love their offensive upside, and if it hadn’t been for a fourth-quarter collapse last week (they were up nine), they could be 2-0 right now.
I’d be more into the Iron if they weren’t so run-heavy and relying so much on the plodding Trent Richardson. Luis Perez was pretty impressive in college and profiles as one of my favorite week 3 AAF DFS picks, but the jury is clearly still out on him and this Birmingham passing game.
Orlando proved last week that they can sling it, so if they can round into a more complete unit, they’ll be a team to fear. For now, I’m sticking with the Commanders. The talent is there, and they’re still just 1-1. At their +1000 price, I’m not sure anyone can offer as much value as they can right now.
It’s easy to go with Arizona or another 2-0 team, but this early in the season, so much is left to be decided. I’ll keep attacking the logical value until we truly know who these teams are. Head on over to Bovada if you want to join me.
I started my tour through the 2019 AAF betting season with a look at week 2’s action, handing out a preview and pick for all four games.
I definitely whiffed big on two, as I had the Hotshots covering a huge spread (they didn’t), and I loved San Antonio to win to get to 2-0 (all of the nope on that one).
Here are my week 2 AAF picks with how I fared.
I did nail some value with the Stallions, but the rest of week 2 in the AAF was riddled with some tight losses.
Arizona not whooping Christian Hackenberg was simply trash. San Antonio looked like the better team going into a showdown with Orlando, too, and actually blew a 9-point lead in the fourth quarter.
That collapse killed a beautiful spread pick, while the Legends also did something similar in coughing away a 9-9 tie to lose by 12 instead of beating a nice +6.5 spread.
Week 2 didn’t go like I thought it would, but I felt great about my plays. It’s onward and upward as we all try to figure these teams out and attempt to win some cash in the process.
The favored AAF champs, Arizona survived a week 2 scare and will look to flex their dominance muscle in week 3. That could prove to be easier said than done, as they’ll be on the road against a desperate 0-2 Stallions team.
Arizona has the passing game with John Wolford and Rashad Ross to rip Salt Lake City up, but the Stallions have displayed a potentially solid defense. After a tough 12-9 loss last week, I suspect Salt Lake City will battle hard and keep this one close.
Close enough to beat a 4-point spread? Not so much.
I just don’t trust Christian Hackenberg. He was better in game two, but his only real impact came on the ground as a runner. He’s never been able to corral his accuracy or sense pressure properly, and I’m just waiting for the wheels to come off.
Not being able to attack defenses through the air is a problem, so Memphis is immediately in a bad spot on the road against what looks like a good Apollos team. Orlando, meanwhile, has one of the best passers in the league so far in Garrett Gilbert and will be chomping at the bit to move to 3-0.
I love the Apollos here, but this spread is ridiculous. Memphis annoyingly stayed close with Arizona last week, so the fight they have makes them tough to bet against with a full two touchdowns being spotted. I feel inclined to buy them at +14.5 (-110), but this game may be best off left avoided.
Trent Richardson is not producing explosive plays for the Iron, but he’s grinding out tough yardage and providing value in the red zone. He’s also helping Birmingham control the tempo of games and keeping their defense rested.
If the Iron can keep playing these types of games — especially against an uninspiring Legends team — they have a chance to enforce their will and grind out wins. This isn’t always an easy formula to execute, but nothing Atlanta has done so far tells me they can flip the script.
This game is in Atlanta, but the Legends just don’t have the offensive firepower to blow this one open. Still, they’re at home and have been competitive. I’ll take them against this spread.
Lastly, I’ll be back on the Commanders, as they face off with the Fleet in San Diego. Both teams come in at 1-1 and will be headed in very different directions after week 3.
I still favor the Commanders, who have nice offensive upside due to an explosive passing attack. Logan Woodside can still torch defenses, and he’s looked good through two weeks. He just needs to take better care of the football.
The Fleet actually have a very good defense through two weeks, but I’m not scared of their offense.
Look for the Commanders to jump out to an early lead and hold onto this one to get to 2-1. I’d be game for backing San Antonio regardless of price, but simply betting on them to keep this one tight offers more value than I thought I’d be getting.
I don’t really care about the spread, though. The Commanders at +2 is a fine play, but I’ll just take the full discount and pick them to win.
Obviously, my first crack at predicting AAF outcomes didn’t go as planned in week 2, but I’m back to give it another try in week 3. To be fair, I was really close to having a winning week, and things just didn’t bounce my way.
The nice thing is I love how the top football betting sites are pricing some of these games, so there is an opportunity in week 3 (and I assume in general going forward) to tap into some killer value and exploit a betting market nobody really fully understands yet.
This is all a process, but in due time, we should know for sure which teams are the best of the best and which ones should be kept to the side. This is a small league with a lot of unproven commodities, but we’re learning some things through two weeks, and the more information we get, the easier it will be to project how games will play out.
Thanks for stopping by, and happy AAF betting in week 3. Good luck!