9 Patrick Mahomes Props to Target for Super Bowl 2021

| February 1, 2021 12:48 pm PDT
9 Patrick Mahomes Props to Target for Super Bowl 2021

Super Bowl 55 projects to be a shootout. You could stop short at simply noting the 56 game total at most Super Bowl 2021 betting sites.

However, if you acknowledge the presence of two iconic quarterbacks, and a matchup that promotes passing, it’s fair to say a lot of points are expected on Super Bowl Sunday.

A big part of the likely high-scoring affair should be Kansas City Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He went ham the last time he faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and with a favorable matchup in front of him, it’s likely he does so again.

But just how successful will Patrick Mahomes be in the Super Bowl, and how might you be able to profit from him?

To assess that, let’s look over the top Patrick Mahomes prop bets for Super Bowl 55.

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 1st Quarter TD Passes (+125)

The action can start immediately, with this Mahomes prop bet asking if the Chiefs star passer can get at least one passing touchdown in the first quarter.

I say yes, as Mahomes and the Chiefs often start games off pretty quickly.

Kansas City ranked 12th on the year with 5.6 first quarter points per game, and they were weirdly much more aggressive early away from home, ranking second in the NFL with 6.8 first quarter points per game on the road.

Mahomes actually only had seven first quarter passing touchdowns in 2020, but two of them came against the Buccaneers.

I think Mahomes and the Chiefs exploit this matchup early and jump out to an early lead. Besides, this +125 price for a guy who torched Tampa Bay earlier this year feels like a steal.

Patrick Mahomes to Throw 1st TD Pass (-140)

Most Patrick Mahomes prop bets are going to involve him throwing stats, while they also could be a tad volatile.

This one is certainly that, as it’s not just dealing with what Mahomes can do, but it requires him besting Tom Brady.

Of course, diving into the best Tom Brady props for Super Bowl 55  is a whole different debate.

For now, I’ll just focus on Mahomes, who I think has the far superior matchup, and should get off to a better start.

That’s certainly what happened earlier this year, when Brady didn’t fire in his first touchdown until the second quarter.

Even if Mahomes doesn’t hit on that first quarter prop, you can get a solid win here if he simply throws the game’s first touchdown.

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

If you’re sensing a trend, it’s that I fully expect Patrick Mahomes to have a pretty great outing at Super Bowl 55.

It’s why I backed Mahomes in a Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes breakdown recently.

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But whether Mahomes makes good on the first quarter or “first touchdown” props, I think at some point he’s going to rain fire down on the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay’s pass rush is scary, but their secondary gives up a lot of plays. Kansas City exploited them about as good as possible earlier this year, and that led to three Patrick Mahomes touchdowns.

In fact, Mahomes fired in at least three passing scores seven times this year. With a title hanging in the balance – and the Buccaneers being so difficult to run on – I think Mahomes getting three touchdowns through the air is a solid bet.

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+145)

While I think you can confidently bet the Over on a lot of Patrick Mahomes props, you can potentially make money betting against him in a sense, as well.

I love Mahomes in this game, but Tampa Bay is still not the easiest matchup overall.

When comparing the Super Bowl 55 defenses, Tampa Bay stands out for their ability to stuff the run and generate pressure.

Mahomes is actually amazing under pressure, but if the Bucs do cause him to force things at all, their aggressive secondary could absolutely snag a pick or two.

Mahomes has come a long way from his first year or two, and he doesn’t make bad mistakes very often.

I don’t even know if they need to qualify as “bad” mistakes on his part, though, as this Buccaneers defense picked Aaron Rodgers off three times across two meetings.

Even though Mahomes doesn’t toss many picks – and threw zero in the first meeting – bettors should pay mind to the fact that Tampa Bay had 15 interceptions on the year.

Tampa Bay also gets away with a lot of holding and physical play, so again, Mahomes tossing a pick isn’t necessarily a knock on him here.

Beyond that, the +145 price is pretty appealing. Mahomes wasn’t perfect in last year’s Super Bowl (2 interceptions), so this feels like a solid prop to target.

Patrick Mahomes to Score a Rushing TD (+375)

The best way to profit from Pat Mahomes prop bets is easily with his stats through the air. Even so, perhaps the best bet when it comes to upside is this Patrick Mahomes rushing touchdown prop bet.

Mahomes is not a burner, but he’s still very mobile.

Typically that mobility is used to simply keep plays alive, but Mahomes is no stranger to rushing in touchdowns.

Super Bowl 54’s first touchdown was a Patrick Mahomes rushing touchdown, and he plowed in for three scores on the ground in 2020. One of them even came in this year’s playoffs.

Tampa Bay is very good against the run, but that typically extends to running backs only. Some will recall the damage Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke did on the ground against them.

The Bucs only allowed three rushing scores by quarterbacks on the year, but if KC is near the goal-line, they’re unlikely to be playing for a Mahomes keeper play.

At +375, this is among the higher upside Pat Mahomes props that seem quite appealing.

Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

If you’re not enamored with a bet dealing with Patrick Mahomes running in a touchdown, perhaps this Patrick Mahomes rushing yards prop bet will do the trick.

As noted, Mahomes isn’t Lamar Jackson, but he certainly can burn a defense on the ground. Defenses typically hope to corral him in the pocket, or when flushed out, hope he makes a mistake as a thrower.

They don’t always account for his sneaky speed and general rushing ability. It’s been good enough to help him accrue 218+ rushing yards in each of the last three seasons, and in 2020 he put up a career-high 308 yards on the ground.

This Patrick Mahomes rushing yards prop isn’t asking for much. He’d need to get you 20 yards, and that is basically his average (20.5) on the year.

Tampa Bay’s prowess against the run is mostly against designed runs, and they’ve allowed about 16 yards per game on the ground to quarterbacks.

There isn’t proper context there, since most passers they face aren’t very mobile. Here’s how things played out when they ran into guys that could run a bit.

Player Faced Rushing Yards Rushing TDs
Taylor Heinicke 46 1
Patrick Mahomes 28 0
Teddy Bridgewater 16 1
Daniel Jones 20 0
Derek Carr 19 0
Aaron Rodgers 15 1

There are a few other quarterbacks who could be considered mobile that had some success, but nothing tops what you’re seeing here.

This table also illustrates the point for both of these Patrick Mahomes rushing prop bets; Tampa Bay has had a little trouble with quarterbacks who can take off and run.

Mahomes is easily the most dangerous player in this list, and he’s already found success in this matchup. I think you can bet on him to do so again in Super Bowl 55.

Patrick Mahomes to Have Most Passing Yards (-105)

I’ll start off this Patrick Mahomes prop by admitting I do think we get a bit of a shootout in Super Bowl 2021, and both quarterbacks should put up some good yardage.

That said, Mahomes dropped an insane 462 passing yards on the Bucs last time he faced them.

I don’t think he reaches almost 500 yards through the air here, but there’s a pretty strong argument he offers the most upside between him and Brady.

He also has the better matchup, and manned the NFL’s #1 passing attack in 2020.

The best part about this Patrick Mahomes prop? You don’t need to hit a specific mark. Mahomes just needs to have more passing yards than Brady, and this bet converts.

Patrick Mahomes Over 326.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Of course, you can go the extra mile and target this Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bet, which does require him to get 327+ passing yards.

That seems fairly doable, considering he’s topped this mark seven times this year.

Obviously Mahomes shredded the Bucs the first time around, and the crazy part is he could pass for almost 150 fewer yards and still get you where you need to go.

Mahomes has never been shy about airing it out and attacking defenses down the field, and as good as the Bucs are defensively, their secondary is not their strength.

Tyreek Hill abused the Bucs, and even if they find a way to take him out of the game, chances are Mahomes will put his other quality weapons to good use.

There’s also the reality that Tampa Bay stops the run well, and this game total projects this game as an explosive shootout. Kansas City has to move the ball somehow, and if they can do it consistently through the air, Mahomes over 327 yards is a solid try.

Patrick Mahomes to Win Super Bowl 55 MVP (-125)

There are understandably quite a few Patrick Mahomes prop bets to consider betting on in Super Bowl 55. One last prop to keep in mind is Mahomes to win Super Bowl 55 MVP.

Back when he was still priced at +275, our own Michael Wynn suggested he was the best bet, citing Kansas City’s likelihood of winning Super Bowl 55.

“The Chiefs are the overwhelming favorite to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in February, and rightfully so.”

Mahomes has been among the top options for this award for a while now, seeing as his 14-2 Chiefs were long expected to at least get back to the Super Bowl this year.

Should they beat the Bucs and repeat, it’s awfully hard to imagine a path to that result without Mahomes being a huge part of it.

Besides, how likely is it you can make money from Patrick Mahomes props like I’ve detailed here, and he doesn’t win the SB 55 MVP award?

Yeah, the odds aren’t great.

I’ll admit the -125 pricing isn’t the best, but that just suggests Mahomes is the clear cut favorite to win this thing. I think -125 is plenty reasonable to jump on, but this is definitely a Pat Mahomes prop I’d target as soon as possible, before the pricing thickens.

Summary

These are not the only Patrick Mahomes props to bet on ahead of Super Bowl 55. However, in my opinion, they are the best Pat Mahomes prop bets, and they’re also all good bets to win you money.

You can bet on Super Bowl 55 in a litany of ways, so don’t feel handcuffed to only targeting the bets above. The range of Super Bowl props is huge this year, as always.

However, if you agree Mahomes is in for a big game, want to cheer him on, or simply want to win some cash, I think these props are a great place to start.

As usual, feel free to add on your own Patrick Mahomes props, and if you don’t agree with some of my logic, just bet the other way, or avoid a prop entirely.

Whatever you do, make sure you’re getting the best odds for any prop you bet on. I’m using BetOnline for a lot of the pricing you seen above, but lines for Super Bowl 55 change all the time, and prop bets are not excluded from that reality.

This isn’t where our Super Bowl 55 coverage stops. For some more great content to help you formulate bets for the 2021 Super Bowl, check out the posts below.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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