So much for a Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson showdown on MNF. That was a one-sided affair with Mahomes visibly demonstrating he’s the most unique talent in the sport.
Philly failed to clean up their act, while the Falcons and Jets continue to be a disgrace.
We learned a lot in week 3, some of which can be directly applied to placing bets on Sunday.
With that in mind, here are 5 things NFL bettors should know for week 4.
Drew Brees Declining?
After opening at 56, it’s no surprise that the total in the Saints vs. Lions game has dropped to 54. Michael Thomas looks like he’ll return to the lineup, but don’t expect Drew Brees to suddenly start pushing the ball down the field.
According to JJ Zachariason of the Late-Round Podcast, Brees is tied for last in the league in deep ball rate. Just 8.7% of his throws have traveled more than 15+ yards in the air.
Consider eyeing the under or targeting the Lions. Perhaps do both.
Dwayne Haskins Isn’t Ready
If you’re thinking about hopping on Baltimore in a Ravens vs. Washington pick, I say, step right on board. We know Jahn Harbaugh’s group will come out angry after getting pummeled, and the Washington quarterback simply isn’t ready to compete.
Just how bad has Dwayne Haskins been in his second year as a professional?
Try an NFL-worst 28.4 QBR through the first three weeks. His recent outing in Cleveland (3 INT, 2 fumbles) was easily one of the worst performances of week 3. Expecting the tide to turn in week 4 against the Ravens – that’s just wishful thinking.
Dolphins Offense Could Shine
Forget about any ideas of Brian Flores inserting Tua Tagovailoa into the game. Ryan Fitzpatrick dominated the Jaguars last time out and looks to have settled into a groove.
It’s possible “Fitzmagic” could light up the box score again come Sunday afternoon in South Beach. Seattle’s secondary hasn’t just been disappointing when it comes to defending opposing wideouts.
They have been downright appalling.
The Seahawks have surrendered 76 catches and 1,136 yards to wide receivers in 2020. To put those figures in perspective, the next-worst team at defending WRs has allowed 49 catches and 736 yards.
DeVante Parker and Preston Williams should have a field day. Even WR Isaiah Ford is in play as a fantasy sleeper.
Start Targeting More Overs
This may sound like a general tip with a lot of ambiguity. It is, but doing it across the league is already paying dividends. Through three weeks, the overs have paid off 60.4% of the time (29-19).
Why is this happening?
No home crowds could have something to do it. All of the injuries being racked up on the defensive side of the ball have probably played a factor.
However, this article dives into how the officiating has had a major effect on the number of points that have been scored.
To sum up a couple of the major takeaways –
Offensive holding penalties are down 59% from 2019.
Defensive pass interference calls are up 22% from 2019.
So yeah, target the overs.
Bills Traveling Cross-Country
Sean McDermott’s players aren’t even going to know what to do with themselves on the six-hour flight from Buffalo to Las Vegas.
After all, the last time the Bills played a road game west of Dallas was back on November 19, 2017. That was a game against the Los Angeles Chargers in Carson, CA where Buffalo got absolutely shredded, 54-24.
Josh Allen has looked rock-solid and the Bills D is ferocious, so expecting a major letup in Sin City doesn’t carry a whole bunch of weight. With that being said, Buffalo is bound to stub their toe eventually, and having to fly to the west coast to play a restless Raiders squad could very well be that spot.
As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.
Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.