4 Tips For NFL Betting in Week 7, 2020
Week 7 kicks off with a snoozefest on Thursday night in Philadelphia. Rather than pick on the Eagles or Giants and get into how depressing the NFC East has been, let’s fast forward to some tidbits that can help us make some money on Sunday.
You can access NFL picks here for every game on the slate, so I’ll take a step back and bring some valuable information to light.
With that in mind, here is a four-pack of NFL betting tips for week 7.
Chargers -9 at BetOnline Seems a Bit Steep
Justin Herbert looks great. The Chargers are coming off a bye and are playing at home, so there’s no question they should be favored on Sunday afternoon versus the Jaguars. However, “nine points” seems a bit egregious considering what the Bolts have accomplished.
LA is a 1-4 team whose only victory was by 3 points in the opener against the Bengals. This line is still hovering around 7.5/8 at many of the top betting sites, but one sportsbook took the initiative to bump it all the way up to 9.
If you can envision a scenario of Gardner Minshew and company hanging around, head to BetOnline for a little extra cushion.
The Jets Offense is More Anemic Than You Think
When the Bills vs. Jets week 7 odds initially came out in – before the season began – the Bills were installed as a 3.5-point favorite. Vegas opened the line this week at Buffalo -10 before quickly adjusting to Bills -13.
It’s obvious nobody can trust the Jets – as evidenced by their 0-6 mark ATS in 2020. New York ranks dead last in points/game (12.5), dead last in third-down conversion rate (30.2%), so it’s no surprise Adam Gase’s offensive unit is ranked dead last (according to PFF) in the NFL.
By the way, Adam Gase's teams (as head coach) have ranked 32nd, 32nd, 31st, and 30th in goal-line plays.— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 20, 2020
It doesn’t seem to matter whether it’s Sam Darnold or Joe Flacco, the Jets offense has been nothing short of abhorrent.
Expect Lots of Points in the Big Easy
New Orleans has scored at least 30 points in all but one game (24 points in week 2), and they’re especially explosive playing in the Superdome. The Saints have been getting it done without their superstar, although all signs are pointing to Michael Thomas returning for the week 7 showdown against the Panthers.
On the flip side, we thought Sean Payton’s defense would be fairly stout after a solid 2019 campaign, but that theory is yet to materialize.
New Orleans is surrendering 30.0 ppg and opponents are converting nearly 49% of third downs against them. With Teddy Bridgewater returning to the Big Easy in “revenge game,” expect the scoreboard to light up.
A.J. Green’s Decline is Genuine
If you are betting NFL games in week 7, chances are you also play fantasy football and/or DFS. So I’m sure you’ve seen A.J. Green’s dismal production and are wondering what the heck is going on.
Allow me to fill you in.
A quick look at the Bengals snap percentages allude to Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins being Joe Burrow’s primary weapons, but that’s just scratching the surface. Lo and behold, Green is actually second on the team with 45 targets, but here’s the problem. The 7x Pro-Bowl who has been plagued with injuries has hauled in just 48.9% of the passes thrown his way and he’s yet to reach pay dirt.
Perhaps the most telling stat of them all is the following nugget, per JJ Zachariason.
A.J. Green has seen 16 deep ball targets (passes that travel 15+ yards in the air) this season. He’s caught one of those balls for 19 yards. Of the eight players in the NFL who have seen at least 15 deep ball targets, everyone else has caught at least 8.
Keep these NFL betting tips for week 7 in the back of your mind as you start locking in your wagers. To get a glimpse of where Noah Davis’ head is at leading into the weekend, check out his two posts revealing his best bets for week 7.