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Odds, Analysis, and Prediction for the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals

| June 13, 2022 8:04 am PDT
Stanley Cup trophy logo, teams logos of Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche money and odds betting background

The Tampa Bay Lightning overcame a 2-0 series deficit to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. They’ll face the Colorado Avalanche, who swept the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Finals.

Colorado makes their first Stanley Cup Final since 2001. Experience won’t be an issue for Tampa Bay, as they became the first team since Edmonton in the early 1980s to qualify for three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.

Our 2022 Stanley Cup Finals betting preview has much to discuss. Let’s start with where to bet on the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals, as well as the latest odds.

Latest 2022 Stanley Cup Finals Odds

Sportsbook Tampa Bay Lightning Colorado Avalanche Bonus Offered
Bovada (+140) (-165) 50% up to $250
BetOnline (+150) (-170) 60% up to $1,000
BetUS (+160) (-180) 125% up to $2,500
MyBookie (+154) (-190) 100% up to $1,000

I always say shopping around to find the best odds is important. It’s not often you’ll find a significant difference in the odds, but the 2022 Stanley Cup odds vary between the best hockey sportsbooks.

Bovada gives you the best odds for the Colorado Avalanche, but you should visit BetUS if you believe in the Tampa Bay Lightning. Either way, these stand out as the best Stanley Cup Finals betting sites.

Colorado has had plenty of rest, but Tampa Bay has more Stanley Cup experience. Those will be significant factors in my 2022 Stanley Cup Finals betting guide.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning Will Win

The Tampa Bay Lightning are in the Stanley Cup Finals for the third straight season. We know that’s an unprecedented mark as it hasn’t happened in 40 years. The Stanley Cup Finals odds may not be in their favor, but the experience is on their side.

Their roster remains intact from the previous two seasons. Tampa Bay continues to have significant contributions from Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and more.

However, the most important member of the Lightning is Andrei Vasilevskiy. Last year’s Finals MVP knows how to take his game to another level in the postseason.

Vasilevskiy wasn’t as strong in the regular season, but he has improved in the postseason. If he faces an elimination game, I’d use the top sports betting sites to wager on the Lightning.

He’ll be the biggest difference-maker in this series. The Florida Panthers had the best offense in the NHL in the regular season, and Vasilevskiy allowed three goals in four games. Can he do the same against the Colorado Avalanche?

My 2022 Stanley Cup Finals betting preview values Tampa Bay’s experience. Between that and Vasilevskiy’s brilliance, they can pull off the upset and win the Stanley Cup.

Why the Lightning Won’t Win the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals

The Tampa Bay Lightning have experience on their side, but the Stanley Cup Finals odds have them as the underdog. They’ve been the road team in every playoff series, so that can’t be the issue.

NHL logo

Could we see a grueling playoff stretch catch up with the Lightning? They overcame a 2-0 series deficit to win the Eastern Conference Finals. Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche had more time to rest after a four-game sweep.

Check out their total games in the 2022 playoffs.

  • Tampa Bay Lightning: 17 games
  • Colorado Avalanche: 14 games

It might not seem like a significant difference, but Tampa Bay has had to overcome a series deficit in two series. If nothing else, that has to be mentally taxing. The St. Louis Blues put up a valiant effort, but they’re the only team to challenge Colorado.

At some point, that should catch up with the Lightning. The fresh legs of Colorado give them the upper hand in the Stanley Cup Final. That should play into them having the better Stanley Cup betting odds.

Brayden Point should return after missing ten games, but how effective will he be? Tampa Bay needs to be at full strength to defeat Colorado.

Why the Colorado Avalanche Will Win

The Colorado Avalanche have been on the verge of the Stanley Cup Final for years, but they couldn’t make it over the hump. They finally did so this year, making their first appearance since 2001.

Colorado’s high-flying offense has the Stanley Cup odds in their favor. They ranked third in the NHL with 3.80 goals per game in the regular season. They’ve raised that number to 4.64 in the playoffs.

Take a look at the highest goals per game in the playoffs in the last 25 years.

  • Colorado Avalanche (2022): 4.64
  • Pittsburgh Penguins (2012): 4.33
  • Pittsburgh Penguins (2022): 4.14
  • Edmonton Oilers (2022): 4.06
  • Colorado Avalanche (2020): 4.00

Colorado has scored 5+ goals in seven of their 14 games. Their offense looked unstoppable in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 4+ goals in every game. The Tampa Bay Lightning won’t have a chance if Colorado continues to score at a historic clip.

The Avalanche has four players with 17+ points in the postseason. Cale Makar leads the team with 22 points, while Nathan MacKinnon has 11 goals. Both players will be a significant factor in my Stanley Cup prediction.

Can the Avalanche continue their offensive onslaught?

Why the Avalanche Won’t Win the 2022 Stanley Cup

The Colorado Avalanche look like a juggernaut, but the Tampa Bay Lightning represents their toughest matchup. We talked about Tampa Bay’s experience being a factor in my 2022 Stanley Cup Finals betting guide.

Andrei Vasilevskiy will be the biggest difference for Tampa Bay. Colorado’s offense has been excellent in the playoffs, but they haven’t faced a goalie of his caliber. How many times have we seen a great goalie neutralize a high-flying offense?

Colorado would love to enter this series at full strength, but that won’t be the case.

Nazem Kadri had a great postseason, recording six goals and eight assists in 13 games. Unfortunately, a finger injury ended his season. Colorado has many playmakers on offense, but they’ll miss Kadri.

Darcy Kuemper suffered an upper-body injury in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. He should be good for Game 1, but will the Avalanche put him in the net? He allowed 2+ goals in seven straight games.

The Avalanche have the edge on offense, but the goaltending matchup isn’t in their favor. We know how important goalies are in the postseason. That could sway my Stanley Cup Finals prediction.

Best Bets for the 2022 Stanley Cup Final

Everyone wants to know who will win the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals. I’ll give my Stanley Cup prediction later, but I want to highlight some props bets for the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals.

Let’s get the ball rolling with a prop asking how many goals Steven Stamkos will score.

Steven Stamkos to Score More Goals Than Gabriel Landeskog (-115)

We often associate the spread and moneyline with the types of ice hockey bets, but prop betting is key for the Stanley Cup Final. Bovada offers multiple-player matchups, but my favorite feature is Steven Stamkos over Gabriel Landeskog.

Both players have been impressive in the playoffs. Stamkos has the advantage in goals, but he has played three more games than Landeskog.

Stamkos only played one game in the 2020 Stanley Cup Final and scored one goal in last year’s Stanley Cup Final. However, we’ve seen a different player in the 2022 postseason.

Stamkos has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career, but he played 75+ games for the first time since the 2018-19 season. He had both goals in the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Game 6 victory in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Landeskog has looked good in the postseason, recording nine goals. However, he has never scored more than 35 goals in his career. He’s a good goal scorer, but he’s not on Stamkos’ level.

Stamkos should have determination after playing a small role in the last two Stanley Cup Finals. It wouldn’t surprise me if he led the Lightning in scoring.

6 Games Played in the Series (+200)

I didn’t want to tip off my Stanley Cup pick until the end. Because of that, I’m only revealing a six-game series for one of my favorite props.

We’ve seen both teams score a sweep in the 2022 postseason. The Colorado Avalanche had a six-game series against the St. Louis Blues, while the Tampa Bay Lightning had a six- and seven-game series.

Colorado has been the best team in the playoffs, but Tampa Bay represents their toughest matchup. A four or five-game series seems low for a pair of competitive teams.

Check out a few key statistics for both teams.

Stats Tampa Bay Lightning Colorado Avalanche
Goals Per Game 3.06 4.64
Points 135 166
Goals Allowed Per Game 2.41 2.86
Save Percentage .928 .901

The Avalanche has the better offense, but the Lightning has the advantage on defense. My 2022 Stanley Cup Finals betting preview calls for a close series. I won’t blame you if you have a seven-game series.

Ultimately, I believe one team has a distinct advantage. I expect a 2-2 or 3-1 series following four games. From there, we should see my winning team take command in Games 5 and 6. Who is that team?

Stanley Cup Final Betting Strategy for 2022

It’s tough to make a Stanley Cup Final prediction with two great teams battling for the Championship. Here are my favorite betting tips to help you predict the winner.

Value 2022 Postseason Numbers

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche are in the Stanley Cup Final for a reason. They’ve been the best teams in the 2022 postseason. Some might point toward Colorado’s playoff failure in past seasons, but that doesn’t apply in 2022.

We’ve seen Cale Makar make a giant leap in the 2022 playoffs. Check out his points per game in the last three playoffs.

Cale Makar
  • 2020: 1.00
  • 2021: 1.00
  • 2022: 1.57

Obviously, we should value his 2022 numbers because he’s a different player. We applied the same knowledge to Steven Stamkos and his potential goal-scoring in the Stanley Cup Finals.

There will be people who wager on the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals without watching a game this postseason. It’s not the ideal way to approach betting on the Stanley Cup, but you can make life easier by looking at the numbers.

Shop Around to Find the Best Value

This isn’t something I’d typically put in its own section, but the Stanley Cup Finals odds showed a stark difference for both teams.

We saw the Colorado Avalanche range from (-165) to (-190). That’s a noticeable difference as you wager more money. Check out the payout for each site if you wager $100 on the Avalanche.

Sports Betting text with mobile phone
  • Bovada (-165): $60.61
  • BetOnline: (-170): $58.82
  • BetUS (-180): $55.56
  • MyBookie (-190): $52.63

It might not seem like a big difference, but wouldn’t you prefer eight more dollars? That’s what you’ll have if you wager on Bovada instead of MyBookie. It’s much bigger for the Lightning because they’re the underdog.

A $100 wager will give you $160 at BetUS. It’d be $20 less if you wagered at Bovada. Feel free to revisit where to bet on the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals.

Prediction for Who Will Win the Stanley Cup Finals in 2022

This is the first time since the 2019 Stanley Cup Final we’ll see the favorite with odds below (-170). We should see a competitive battle between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche.

I always value good goaltending in the postseason, but I’m taking the Colorado Avalanche to win the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. Colorado’s offense has been amazing throughout the playoffs, and it’s hard to see them slowing down.

Hopefully, the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals betting guide will help you make your Stanley Cup prediction. Please visit our hockey betting picks page as we break down each game in the Stanley Cup Final.

Nicholas Sterling
Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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