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2022 AFL Odds Update with Contender Analysis and Premiership Prediction

| April 26, 2022 10:40 am PDT
AFL logo, Lachie Neale, Christian Petracca, Andrew Brayshaw, Josh Dunkley, Tom Hawkins, and Jack Steele

Can you believe that we are already six rounds into the 2022 AFL season?

It seems like only yesterday that Melbourne and Western Bulldogs kicked off the campaign in a repeat of the 2021 Grand Final. But as May approaches, a quarter of the season is already behind us.

The top Aussie rules betting sites have updated their 2022 AFL premiership odds following six rounds of action-packed footy. Therefore, it only makes sense that we evaluate the latest AFL odds to find the best possible value.

As it stands, the Demons are on course to defend their crown. But Fremantle, Brisbane, Sydney, and St Kilda are hot on their heels. Can Geelong and Carlton keep pace with the early frontrunners? And where the hell is Port Adelaide!?

Let’s start with the latest 2022 AFL odds and answer those questions in due course.

Latest 2022 AFL Premiership Odds

As per the latest AFL odds at Betway, Melbourne (2.87) is the clear 2022 AFL premiership favorite. The Demons are the only team with a 100% record this year, having kicked off the season with six straight wins.

Brisbane (6.00) and Sydney (8.00) are viewed as Melbourne’s closest rivals. After winning five of their opening six matches, the Lions and Swans find themselves four points behind the Demons.

Betway’s updated AFL odds suggest that Geelong (11.00), Western Bulldogs (13.00), St Kilda (15.00), Carlton (17.00), and Fremantle (17.00) remain in contention for the flag. They are the only other sides priced below 20.00.

Further down the list, Richmond (26.00) and Port Adelaide (34.00) are in unfamiliar territory.

The Tigers won three premierships in four seasons between 2017 and 2020. However, they have lost four of their first six games this year. As for the 2020 minor premiers, they have a solitary victory to their name ahead of Round 7.

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Current AFL Ladder (2022)

Team W L % Points
Melbourne 6 0 153.5 24
Fremantle 5 1 144.2 20
Brisbane 5 1 142.9 20
Sydney 5 1 134.9 20
St Kilda 5 1 131.7 20
Geelong 4 2 121.7 16
Carlton 4 2 95.4 16
Collingwood 3 3 107.2 12
Hawthorn 3 3 97.1 12
Adelaide 3 3 95.6 12
Western Bulldogs 2 4 100.4 8
Richmond 2 4 95.3 8
Gold Coast 2 4 88.6 8
Port Adelaide 1 5 93.9 4
GWS Giants 1 5 73.7 4
Essendon 1 5 72.8 4
West Coast 1 5 61.2 4
North Melbourne 1 5 60.6 4


As I already mentioned, Melbourne heads into Round 7 on a six-game winning streak. It’s fair to say that the reigning premiers have made the perfect start to their title-defending campaign.

Four teams – Fremantle, Brisbane, Sydney, and St Kilda – have won five of their six clashes. Meanwhile, Geelong and Carlton find themselves sixth and seventh, respectively, after picking up four wins this year.

At the opposite end of the AFL ladder, five sides – North Melbourne, West Coast, Essendon, GWS Giants, and Port Adelaide – are locked on four points. You probably won’t be surprised to see that the North has the worst percentage.

I will share my updated AFL title prediction a little later. First, we need to analyze the candidates.

Is Melbourne Destined to Claim Back-to-Back Flags?

The Demons secured a memorable double last year. After claiming their first minor premiership since 1964, they ended a 57-year premiership drought by crushing the Bulldogs in the grand final.

Judging by the performances in 2022, they may not have to wait much longer to clinch another flag.

The defending champs have been the best team in the competition by some distance this season. Not only have they won six straight matches, but they have also conceded the fewest points. Below is a list of their triumphs so far.

  • Western Bulldogs by 28
  • Gold Coast by 13
  • Essendon by 29
  • Port Adelaide by 32
  • GWS Giants by 67
  • Richmond by 22

After beating the Dogs by 28 points in Round 1, Melbourne dispatched Gold Coast, Essendon, and Port before notching a 67-point thrashing against GWS. In Round 6, they extend their hot streak with a 22-point win over Richmond.

Having starred throughout the previous campaign, key performers such as Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Max Gawn, and Bayley Fritsch have hit the ground running this year.

If they carry on the way they’re going, the Dees could become the first team in AFL history to achieve an undefeated home-and-away season.

Other 2022 AFL Premiership Contenders

According to Betway’s latest 2022 AFL odds, a handful of teams stand a realistic chance of catching Melbourne. Having analyzed the Demons, it’s time to examine the other AFL premiership contenders for 2022.

Brisbane (6.00)

Betway’s updated AFL betting odds indicate that Brisbane is Melbourne’s nearest challenger. It is difficult to argue with that viewpoint when you look at the current AFL ladder.

The Lions lost just one of their first six matches, picking up five wins in the process. Following victories over Port, Essendon, and North, they lost to Geelong before beating Collingwood and Gold Coast.

It is worth noting that Brisbane has kicked more points than any other team this season. The Queenslanders have racked up 633 points in six outings, meaning they average 105.5 points per game in 2022.

Joe Daniher (19), Zac Bailey (16), and Charlie Cameron (12) have already reached double figures for goals, while Lincoln McCarthy (9) and Daniel McStay (7) have also chipped in along the way.

Still, there is no denying that Lachie Neale and Jarryd Lyons are the show’s stars for Brisbane. The dynamic midfield duo could lead the Lions to glory this year.

Sydney (8.00)

Sydney’s last premiership triumph came back in 2012. Granted, they clinched the minor premiership in 2014 and 2016. But they also lost the grand final in both of those seasons.

That said, if the Swans’ early-season form is anything to go by, they look set to mount a serious challenge for the top prize this year.

In March, the legendary Lance Franklin wrote his name into AFL folklore by kicking his 1,000th career goal. Having gotten that milestone out of the way, “Buddy” can focus his energy on guiding his team to the flag.

The Swans have already booted 100+ points on four occasions this season. Alongside Franklin (12), Isaac Heeney (15), Will Hayward (10), and Hayden McLean (9) have been clinical in front of the posts.

If they continue to blow their opponents away, there is no reason why the Swans can’t go deep into the competition.

Geelong (11.00)

Although the Cats find themselves eight points behind Melbourne in the current AFL standings, you would be stupid to write them off at this early stage.

Let’s not forget that Geelong has already dispatched Brisbane this year. Thanks to additional victories over Essendon, Collingwood, and North Melbourne, Chris Scott’s boys remain in a strong position ahead of Round 7.

Player Club Goals
Tom Hawkins Geelong 20
Jeremy Cameron Geelong 19
Joe Daniher Brisbane 19
Max King St Kilda 17
Zac Bailey Brisbane 16
Charlie Curnow Carlton 16

As the table above details, Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron lead the way in the goalkicking charts. Naturally, they are also among the 2022 Coleman Medal favorites – enhancing Geelong’s chances of success.

  • Tom Hawkins (5.50)
  • Max King (6.00)
  • Jeremy Cameron (6.00)
  • Harry McKay (7.00)
  • Joe Daniher (8.00)

The Cats have a tricky schedule to navigate in the coming weeks, with matches against Fremantle, St Kilda, and Port Adelaide on the horizon. If they can successfully negotiate those clashes, their odds for the AFL premiership will almost certainly drop.

Could an Outsider Win the AFL Premiership in 2022?

The 2022 AFL season has already dished up plenty of surprises. So, will we see a shock premiership winner this year? This section covers three teams that could upset the 2022 AFL odds.

St Kilda (15.00)

St Kilda heads into Round 7 on a five-game winning streak. After losing against Collingwood on the opening weekend, Brett Ratten’s side dispatched Freo, Richmond, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, and GWS.

Thanks largely to the exploits of star players like Jack Steele and Max King, the Saints are one of four teams with 20 points to their name. That means they trail Melbourne by just four points.

The Saints’ first and only premiership triumph came all the way back in 1966. Since then, they have lost two grand finals (2009 and 2010). However, the current crop of St Kilda stars looks determined to end the club’s lengthy wait for the flag.

Fremantle (17.00)

Before the start of the 2022 campaign, Fremantle was priced at 26.00 to claim the title. Having won five of their first six games this season, Freo’s AFL premiership odds have dropped to 17.00.

The Dockers are sitting pretty in second place after seeing off Adelaide, West Coast, GWS, Essendon, and Carlton. Better still, they boast the third-best defensive record in the comp.

Player Club AFL Fantasy Points
Andrew Brayshaw Fremantle 745
Josh Dunkley Western Bulldogs 719
Ben Keays Adelaide 709
Travis Boak Port Adelaide 695
Jack Steele St Kilda 669
Lachie Neale Brisbane 662

Those who play AFL Fantasy will know that Andrew Brayshaw has been key to Fremantle’s success this year. The young midfielder has picked up more points than any other player in 2022, highlighting his importance to the team.

With other standout performers such as Will Brodie, Blake Acres, and Luke Ryan enjoying impressive seasons, Freo could upset the AFL odds this year.

Port Adelaide (34.00)

What has happened to Port Adelaide?

After clinching the minor premiership in 2020, the South Australians finished second on the ladder last season. Fast-forward to today – they sit fourteenth in the standings after losing five of their opening six clashes.

The Power started the season with five straight defeats before thrashing West Coast by 84 points in Round 7. Last weekend’s victory should kick-start their campaign.

Let’s not forget that Port has the 2021 Brownlow Medalist in its ranks. If Ollie Wines and co. can rediscover their best form, the Power’s AFL premiership odds will plummet.

Updated 2022 AFL Premiership Prediction

As it stands, Melbourne is on course to clinch back-to-back flags. The Demons head into Round 7 with a 100% record, meaning they sit four points clear of the chasing pack.

Still, a lot can change between now and the end of the season. Although the Dees are in pole position currently, there are still 17 rounds to play before the finals series.

It only makes sense that Melbourne is my current 2022 AFL premiership winner prediction, but that could change in the coming months. After all, several teams remain within touching distance of the Dees.

In addition to betting on the AFL premiership winner, check out my AFL predictions and picks for individual matches. Follow the link below to discover my AFL betting tips for the upcoming round.

Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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