Odds and Prediction for the 2022-23 Premier League Golden Boot

By Ben Morris in Soccer
| July 22, 2022 1:19 pm PDT
Premier League 2022-23 Golden Boot, Cristiano Ronaldo, Mohamed Salah, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane

If the 2022-23 Premier League Golden Boot odds don’t get you excited for the new season, I don’t know what will.

Of course, Mohamed Salah, Harry Kane, and all the other usual suspects are there. But with high-profile newcomers such as Erling Haaland and Darwin Nunez joining the party, the EPL Golden Boot race is destined to be fiercely competitive.

The Golden Boot was shared last season, with Salah and Son Heung-min scoring 23 goals. Salah has scooped the prize in three of the past five years, but he could struggle to defend his crown following the arrival of a certain someone in Manchester.

With the new campaign set to kick off on August 5, all the best sports betting sites have published their 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot odds. So, it’s time to make your Golden Boot predictions!

Today, I will break down the bookies’ prices, analyze the contenders, and share my prediction and pick. Before we go any further, though, be sure to familiarize yourself with the best sportsbooks for betting on the EPL Golden Boot.

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2022-23 Premier League Golden Boot Odds

  • Erling Haaland (+275)
  • Mohamed Salah (+450)
  • Harry Kane (+550)
  • Darwin Nunez (+1400)
  • Gabriel Jesus (+1400)
  • Son Heung-min (+1600)
  • Cristiano Ronaldo (+2000)
  • Diogo Jota (+3300)
  • Jamie Vardy (+3300)
  • Luis Diaz (+3300)
  • Raheem Sterling (+3300)
  • Timo Werner (+5000)

I’ve listed the 2022 EPL Golden Boot odds above. Erling Haaland (+275) heads into his debut Premier League season as the bookies’ Golden Boot favorite. No pressure, Erling!

Manchester City’s new No. 9 arrives in England with a reputation as a lethal goalscorer, having netted 85 goals in 88 games for Borussia Dortmund. But has he got what it takes to succeed in what many consider to be the toughest league in world soccer?

If you already know a thing or two about the EPL, you won’t be surprised that Mohamed Salah (+450) and Harry Kane (+550) are seen as Haaland’s nearest rivals. After all, Salah and Kane have both clinched three Golden Boots across the previous seven seasons.

As you can see, there is a sizeable gap in the 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot betting odds. Darwin Nunez (+1400) and Gabriel Jesus (+1400) round out the top five, although they find themselves a fair way behind the frontrunners.

Son Heung-min (+1600) is bound to attract plenty of attention, given that he shared the award with Salah last season. Naturally, Cristiano Ronaldo (+2000) will also be a hugely popular EPL Golden Boot pick.

I took these 2022-23 Premier League Golden Boot odds from Betway’s sportsbook. Feel free to examine our detailed review of Betway before visiting the site.

Analyzing the 2021-22 Premier League Golden Boot Race

Before we take a closer look at the 2022-23 Premier League Golden Boot contenders, let’s remind ourselves of what happened last season.

Player Club Goals
Mohamed Salah Liverpool 23
Son Heung-min Tottenham Hotspur 23
Cristiano Ronaldo Manchester United 18
Harry Kane Tottenham Hotspur 17
Sadio Mané Liverpool 16
Kevin De Bruyne Manchester City 15
Diogo Jota Liverpool 15
Jamie Vardy Leicester City 15
Wilfried Zaha Crystal Palace 14
Raheem Sterling Manchester City 13

For only the fifth time in three decades, the Golden Boot was shared last season. Salah and Son both scored 23 goals in 35 games, matching Kane’s tally in 2020-21.

Ronaldo finished behind Salah and Son in last season’s scoring charts, bagging 18 goals in 30 games. Despite Manchester United’s disaster campaign, Ronaldo still outscored most of his rivals.

Kane and Sadio Mané scored 17 and 16, respectively, while Kevin De Bruyne, Diego Jota, and Jamie Vardy each netted 15 goals. Wilfried Zaha and Raheem Sterling also made it into the top ten.

Why Is Haaland the 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot Favorite?

  • Club: Manchester City
  • 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot Odds: +275
  • EPL Golden Boots: 0
  • Last Season: N/A

Granted, Haaland is new to the Premier League. But it is no real surprise that all the top UK betting sites favor Man City’s latest superstar to score more goals than anyone else during his maiden EPL campaign.

Despite being just 22 years young, the prolific Norwegian is already regarded as one of the best players on the planet. Now that he plays for one of the world’s best teams, he is expected to take his game to another level.

As I already mentioned, Haaland bagged 85 goals in 88 appearances for Dortmund. After scoring at a rate of 0.97 goals per game for his former club, it’s no wonder that Man City paid £51 million to acquire his services.

City won each of the past two Premier League titles without a recognized No. 9. Last season, De Bruyne (15), Sterling (13), and Riyad Mahrez (11) were the club’s top scorers in the league. Just imagine how many goals Haaland could score in 2022-23!

Not only have Pep Guardiola’s men won each of the last two EPL titles, but they have also won four of the previous five. If the 2022-23 EPL titles odds are anything to go by, Man City – and Haaland – will enjoy even more success next season.

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Other Top Contenders for the EPL Golden Boot in 2022-23

The 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot betting odds make Haaland the favorite, but there are plenty of other world-class forwards in the Premier League.

Before we settle on a 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot prediction and pick, we need to examine the other contenders. With sharp-shooters like Salah and Kane ready to challenge for the award once again, there is no shortage of options to assess.

Mohamed Salah

  • Club: Liverpool
  • 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot Odds: +450
  • EPL Golden Boots: 3
  • Last Season: 23 Goals/35 Games (0.66 Goals Per Game)

By his own high standards, Salah had a relatively quiet campaign in 2021-22. But he still managed to clinch the Golden Boot. That tells you everything you need to know about the Liverpool forward’s level of performance.

The Egyptian scored a whopping 32 goals in 36 games en route to winning his first EPL Golden Boot in 2017-18. He defended his crown the following season before finishing as the league’s top scorer for the third time in five years last season.

  • 1. Mohamed Salah: 164 (118 Goals/46 Assists)
  • 2. Harry Kane: 136 (105 Goals/31 Assists)
  • 3. Raheem Sterling: 122 (78 Goals/44 Assists)
  • 4. Son Heung-min: 118 (75 Goals/43 Assists)
  • 5. Jamie Vardy: 112 (91 Goals/21 Assists)

As the stats above detail, Salah has been the Premier League’s most prolific player since joining Liverpool in 2017. He has scored 118 goals across the past five campaigns, meaning he averages 23.60 goals per season for the Reds.

Let’s face it – nobody would be shocked if Salah secured a fourth Golden Boot in six seasons.

Harry Kane

Harry Kane
  • Club: Tottenham Hotspur
  • 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot Odds: +550
  • EPL Golden Boots: 3
  • Last Season: 17 Goals/37 Games (0.46 Goals Per Game)

In my eyes, Kane’s odds of winning the 2022-23 Premier League Golden Boot are seriously attractive.

There is no denying that Salah has been the most consistent goalscorer in the EPL in recent years. But Kane has remained within touching distance of Salah. In fact, no player has won more Golden Boots since Kane claimed his maiden title in 2015-16.

Player Golden Boots Seasons
Harry Kane 3 2015-16, 2016-17, 2020-21
Mohamed Salah 3 2017-18, 2018-19, 2021-22
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 1 2018-19
Sadio Mané 1 2018-19
Jamie Vardy 1 2019-20
Son Heung-min 1 2021-22

The 28-year-old has altered his playing style over the past couple of years, dropping deeper and adding more assists to his game. Even so, he still scores goals at a rapid rate.

With a full pre-season under Antonio Conte in the bank, Tottenham is expected to hit the ground running in 2022-23. Don’t be surprised to see Kane’s Golden Boot odds drop if the Spurs striker makes a flying start to the season.

Darwin Nunez

Darwin Nunez
  • Club: Liverpool
  • 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot Odds: +1400
  • EPL Golden Boots: 0
  • Last Season: N/A

Predicting how Nunez will fare during his debut Premier League campaign is difficult. Like Haaland, Nunez is new to English soccer. But unlike his Golden Boot rival, he only has one prolific goalscoring season to his name.

The 23-year-old Uruguayan netted 34 goals in 41 appearances for Benfica last season (0.83 goals per game). The season before that, however, he managed just 14 goals in 44 outings (0.32 goals per game).

Of course, Liverpool would not have parted ways with a club-record fee of £85 million if they didn’t think that Nunez was good enough. But he may need time to adapt to England’s top-tier demands.

It is also worth noting that Salah is the main man at Anfield. Nunez looks set to play second fiddle to Salah, making him a less appealing Premier League Golden Boot pick.

Gabriel Jesus

Gabriel Jesus
  • Club: Arsenal
  • 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot Odds: +1400
  • EPL Golden Boots: 0
  • Last Season: 8 Goals/28 Games (0.29 Goals Per Game)

It wouldn’t be unfair to say that Gabriel Jesus has never been a super-productive goalscorer. I mean, the Brazilian has netted 58 goals in 159 EPL appearances – meaning he averages 0.36 goals per game.

That said, Jesus spent six seasons at Man City between 2016-17 and 2021-22. Due to the fierce competition for places in City’s starting XI, Jesus made 99 starts and 60 substitute appearances under Guardiola.

However, the 25-year-old joined Arsenal this summer and is expected to lead the line for the Gunners. If he becomes Arsenal’s first-choice striker, he could mount a serious challenge for the Golden Boot.

Son Heung-min

Son Heung-min
  • Club: Tottenham Hotspur
  • 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot Odds: +1600
  • EPL Golden Boots: 1
  • Last Season: 23 Goals/35 Games (0.66 Goals Per Game)

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t surprised by Son’s odds to win the 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot. Given that he won the award last season, I’m struggling to figure out why Son is priced at +1600.

The Tottenham star has been one of the Premier League’s most consistent forwards in recent years. After scoring 17 goals in 2020-21, he netted 23 goals to claim his maiden Golden Boot last season. Ultimately, his record speaks for itself.

Season Goals Games Goals Per Game
2021-22 23 35 0.66
2020-21 17 37 0.46
2019-20 11 30 0.37
2018-19 12 31 0.39
2017-18 12 37 0.32
2016-17 14 34 0.41
2015-16 4 28 0.14

There is no reason why Son can’t finish as the league’s top scorer for a second successive campaign. If Conte’s Spurs live up to expectations in 2022-23, Son will surely find himself toward the top end of the Golden Boot leaderboard once again.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Cristiano Ronaldo
  • Club: Manchester United
  • 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot Odds: +2000
  • EPL Golden Boots: 1
  • Last Season: 18 Goals/30 Games (0.60 Goals Per Game)

Cristiano Ronaldo needs no introduction. Even at the ripe old age of 37, the Man Utd megastar is ready to challenge for yet another Golden Boot.

The Red Devils registered their worst-ever Premier League finish last season, but Ronaldo still managed to score 18 goals in 30 games (0.60 goals per game). Following Erik ten Hag’s arrival at Old Trafford, CR7 will be confident of improving on last season’s tally.

Granted, Ronaldo would have to produce one of his best-ever seasons to outperform guys like Haaland, Salah, and Kane. But with a mammoth 698 club goals under his belt, he knows exactly what it takes to upset the Golden Boot odds.

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Top Premier League Golden Boot Picks for 2022-23

  • Erling Haaland (+275)
  • Mohamed Salah (+450)
  • Harry Kane (+550)
  • Son Heung-min (+1600)

Here are my top 2022-23 Premier League Golden Boot picks. In my opinion, the four players above are the best value bets for the upcoming season.

As you can see, Haaland, Salah, and Kane are among my top-ranked EPL Golden Boot picks for 2022-23. Although they have the lowest odds, they are undoubtedly the most prolific goalscorers in England’s top tier.

I don’t like the look of Nunez and Jesus at +1400. Instead, I recommend considering Son at +1600. The Tottenham forward won the award last season, so it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he went back-to-back in 2022-23.

My 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot Betting Pick

Harry Kane (+550) is my 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot pick. Back your pick now and Betway!Bet on the 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot at Betway

According to the latest EPL Golden Boot betting odds, Haaland, Salah, and Kane are the favorites to scoop the award. Haaland and Salah present decent value at +275 and +450, respectively, but I’m backing Kane at +550.

Don’t get me wrong; I expect Haaland to enjoy a solid debut campaign at Man City. But I can’t see him outscoring Kane. The 22-year-old will need time to adapt to the league and isn’t likely to start every single game next season.

I also expect Salah to have another stellar season. That said, it will be tough for the Liverpool star to maintain his super-high standards throughout 2022-23.

As for Kane, he has netted 17+ goals in each of the past eight EPL seasons. Better still, he has scored 23+ goals in four of the previous seven. The three-time Golden Boot winner is a bona fide goal machine!

Plus, Tottenham looks destined to enjoy a successful campaign under Conte. The highly-rated Italian manager led Juventus, Chelsea, and Inter Milan to top-flight glory, so I can see Kane thriving under his guidance.

Well, that is my 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot prediction and pick on the board. If you plan to bet on Premier League games next season, be sure to use only the best EPL betting sites.



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