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2021 UEFA Nations League Finals – Odds and Analysis

| October 2, 2021 6:03 am PDT

The 2021 UEFA Nations League returns on Wednesday, October 6, with the semi-finals, third-place play-off, and final taking place across five days in Italy.

The group stage of the tournament commenced in September 2020, with the European Championship taking center stage over the summer. The Italians triumphed at Euro 2020 – and they are one of four teams left in the Nations League.

Alongside Roberto Mancini’s team, France, Belgium, and Spain will all be hoping to get their hands on the silverware. But only one country can lift the trophy in Milan on Sunday, October 10.

In this post, I assess the winner odds for the 2021 UEFA Nations League before taking an in-depth look at all four contenders – offering Nations League betting advice and analysis along the way.

Let’s start by checking out the latest UEFA Nations League odds before examining each team.

Latest 2021 UEFA Nations League Winner Odds


The best soccer betting sites view France (3.25) and Belgium (3.25) as joint favorites to win the 2021 UEFA Nations League.

Les Blues suffered a shock round-of-16 exit at Euro 2020, falling to Switzerland on penalties. Belgium, meanwhile, was knocked out by Italy (4.15) in the quarter-finals.

Mancini’s men beat both Belgium and Spain (3.75) on their way clinching the European Championship title in July. With home-field advantage on their side, they will fancy their chances of winning another title in Milan.

Before we take a closer look at the teams, let’s go over the Nations League semi-final draw, dates, and final info.

UEFA Nations League Semi-Final Draw and Fixtures

The first Nations League semi-final goes down on Wednesday, October 6, with Italy facing Spain at Milan’s San Siro.

Let’s not forget that Italy beat Spain on penalties in the Euro 2020 semi-finals.

Belgium and France face off in the second semi-final on Thursday, October 7. They go head-to-head at Juventus’ Allianz Stadium and meet for the first time since 2018.

  • Semi-Final 1: Italy vs. Spain (Wednesday, October 6)
  • Semi-Final 2: Belgium vs. France (Thursday, October 7)

Both the third-place play-off and final take place on Sunday, October 10. Naturally, the semi-final losers compete for third place, while the semi-final winners qualify for the final.

The third-place play-off gets underway earlier in the day in Turin, with the final taking place on Sunday evening in Milan.

  • Third-Place Play-Off: Semi-Final 1 Loser vs. Semi-Final 2 Loser (Sunday, October 10)
  • Final: Semi-Final 1 Winner vs. Semi-Final 2 Winner (Sunday, October 10)

It’s time to analyze the contenders.

Can France Make Amends for Euros Failure?

It is no secret that France endured a summer to forget.

The reigning world champions failed to live up to expectations at the European Championship and ended up falling at the first knockout hurdle, losing to Switzerland on penalties in the last 16.

Didier Deschamps’ men clearly suffered something of a Euros hangover, too, they were held to shock draws by Bosnia & Herzegovina and Ukraine in September’s World Cup qualifiers.

Home Team Score Away Team
France 1-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Ukraine 1-1 France
France 2-0 Finland

There is absolutely no denying, of course, that France possesses the firepower to win the Nations League. I mean, Kylian Mbappe is the most valuable soccer player on the planet.

With world-class stars such as Raphael Varane, N’Golo Kante, and Karim Benzema littering Deschamps’ squad, it is hardly surprising that France is the bookies’ favorite to triumph in Italy.

That said, Les Blues need to go out there and perform to the best of their ability. If they pick up where they left off in World Cup qualifying, they could struggle to claim the title.

Could Belgium Go All the Way?

When the Red Devils knocked out defending champion Portugal in the last 16 at Euro 2020, they must have thought they could go all the way. But that didn’t happen.

Belgium was beaten 2-1 by eventual champion Italy in the quarter-finals, leading to another early exit from a major tournament for Roberto Martinez’s side.

Since then, however, normal service has been resumed. Belgium picked up three straight wins in World Cup qualifying, dispatching Estonia (5-2), the Czech Republic (3-0), and Belarus (1-0).

The Red Devils are capable of an attack. Led by the unstoppable Romelu Lukaku, they are more than capable of outscoring any opponent in front of them.

Still, there are major question marks over their aging defense. With Thomas Vermaelen (35), Jan Vertonghen (34), and Toby Alderweireld (32) well into their thirties, there is a sense that Belgium’s backline can be exposed.

Is Spain Good Enough to Lift the Trophy?

It’s safe to say that Spain surprised a lot of people at Euro 2020.

Given that La Roya is going through a transitional period, nobody expected them to do anything special in the summer. As it turned out, they ended up going all the way to the semi-finals – pushing Italy to penalties.

The new generation – spearheaded by young guns like Pedri and Ferran Torres – is still a work in progress, but it feels like Luis Enrique’s men can become a top team in the coming years.

The Spaniards did suffer a disappointing 2-1 loss to Sweden in their first outing after the European Championship, underlining their naivety. They swiftly bounced back, though, sealing easy wins over Georgia (4-0) and Kosovo (2-0).

Although it is difficult to predict exactly how Enrique’s side will fare in Italy, you would be foolish to write them off altogether.

Why is Italy the Bookies’ Outsider?

Few would argue that Roberto Mancini’s men didn’t deserve to win this year’s European Championship. After all, they were the best team in the competition and remained strong in every department.

The Italians weren’t gifted an easy route to glory, either. They were forced to get past Belgium and Spain during the knockout phase before overcoming England on penalties in the showpiece.

Following a draw with Switzerland in September’s World Cup qualifiers, the Azzurri set a new world for longest international unbeaten run.

They haven’t tasted defeat since all the way back in October 2018, going 37 games without a loss.

So, why is Italy the bookies’ outsider?

Well, I’m not entirely sure. We all know that France, Belgium, and Spain are world-class teams, but the Italians have proved they can compete with – and beat – the best sides on the planet.

Mancini has transformed the Azzurri into a genuine powerhouse, so nobody would be shocked if they lifted the Nations League trophy on home soil, would they?

Betting on the 2021 UEFA Nations League Winner

The first thing to consider when it comes to betting on the 2021 UEFA Nations League winner is that each team stands a genuine chance of succeeding.

All four sides currently find themselves in the top eight of FIFA’s World Rankings, meaning Belgium (#1), France (#4), Italy (#5), and Spain (#8) are all capable of claiming the title.

It is also worth noting that the bookies’ winner odds for the 2021 UEFA Nations League are extremely tight. Although France (3.25) and Belgium (3.25) are the narrow frontrunners, Spain (3.75) and Italy (4.15) are hot on their heels.

While France and Spain have faltered since the European Championship, Belgium and Italy have remained unbeaten. That said, the Belgians have faced favorable opponents since the summer.

With that in mind, Italy is arguably the best bet to win the 2021 UEFA Nations League. Not only are Mancini’s men the European champions, but they also boast the biggest price.

It is extremely difficult to ignore the Azzurri’s lengthy unbeaten streak, too. They have gone 37 matches without defeat and will be full of confidence after triumphing at Euro 2020.

As the Nations League odds suggest, the remainder of the tournament will be very competitive. With four world-class sides going head-to-head, we are set for a wild few days!

Planning to bet on the Nations League games? If so, head over to the soccer picks section of our site, as our team will be sharing their Nations League predictions for all the upcoming finals matches.

Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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