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2021 Eurovision Song Contest Betting Guide – Odds, Analysis, and Predictions

| May 8, 2021 4:55 am PDT

Things are starting to get back to normal after COVID-19 pressed pause on the entire world.

In Tokyo, they are preparing for the Olympics. In Istanbul, they are getting ready for the Champions League final. And over in the Netherlands, they are planning to hold the Eurovision Song Contest with a live audience.

Rotterdam Ahoy is the venue that will host this year’s contest from Thursday, May 18 to Saturday, May 22.

Rotterdam was supposed to be the host city of 2020’s Eurovision event, which was canceled for obvious reasons. After a one-year delay, the Dutch are ready to put on an unforgettable show!

Even if you don’t care much about European pop music, it doesn’t mean you should ignore the contest.

Eurovision is not just one of the greatest shows on the planet, but it’s also a special opportunity for you to bet and (fingers crossed) win yourself some money.

What we’re talking about is Eurovision betting, which is getting a lot of traction lately. The main reason why it is so popular is that the odds are fantastic. For instance, the odds on the #1 favorite are somewhere in the ballpark of 4.50.

The bad news is that bookmakers’ favorites do not win the Eurovision too often (you’ll learn more about this if you keep on reading).

The good news is that I am here to dissect the chances of the main favorites and give you some predictions.

2021 Eurovision Odds

Accuracy of Betting Odds at Eurovision

The most recent Eurovision Song Contest took place in 2019. Ahead of the event, sportsbooks were offering 2.50 on the Netherlands, which was the main favorite.

Sportsbooks guessed correctly! The Netherlands won, which explains why this year’s contest is taking place in Rotterdam.

Oddsmakers were right the year before as well. They were giving 2.75 on Israel’s entry, which went on to win the contest.

However, in 2017, they failed miserably. Italy was the #1 favorite in the eyes of the bookmakers, but this nation’s representative finished in the #6 place. The odds on Italy were only 2.30.

The second favorite, Bulgaria, was priced at 7.50 but ended up as the runner-up. Even the third favorite did not win – Sweden (8.00) finished in the #5 place.

Instead Portugal won the 2017 contest with the pre-event odds of 13.00.

Something even more extreme happened in 2016 when Ukraine won. The odds on this nation were 19.00 before the start of the contest. Meanwhile, the main favorite, Russia (2.75), came in third.

Favorites also failed to win in 2014, 2011, 2007, and so on.

The big question is whether the favorite is going to win in 2021.

Examining the Top Eurovision Favorites

Eurovision voting works by combining the points given by a jury made up of industry professionals with the points coming from each participating country.

The experience has taught us that countries tend to vote for their neighbors. For instance, the UK often gives the highest number of points to Ireland and vice versa.

Further, since the era of televoting has started, people living outside their country of origin will vote for their native country in large numbers.

An example of this is Poland’s 2016 song, which came in third, despite being second-last in jury’s voting. The reason – Polish diaspora from all around the continent voted for that song.

All these things need to be considered when discussing the main Eurovision candidates. Still, the crucial factor in determining the winner is the quality of the song.

This year, industry experts think there are a couple of songs that stand out for their quality. Luckily, their picks coincide with what bettors think.

Je Me Casse by Destiny (Malta)

Everyone seems to agree that Malta has the best chance of winning the 2021 contest with the song Je Me Casse performed by Destiny.

With the singer’s powerful voice, and the song’s upbeat tempo and lyrics celebrating women’s empowerment, the song is favored both by critics and bettors.

Voila by Barbara Pravi (France)

Unlike Malta’s entry, this song is not an easy-to-whistle tune but an emotional ballad.

Even though it is in French, you can get a good idea of what the song is about based on Barbara Pravi’s interpretation.

Tout l’univers by Gjon’s Tears (Switzerland)

Here’s another song with a French title! Tout l’univers is sung by an artist who goes by the name of Gjon’s Tears. He was supposed to take part in the 2020 Eurovision with another song.

After the contest got canceled, the Swiss decided to keep him as their representative, albeit with another piece.

Zitti e Buoni by Maneskin (Italy)

Italy’s entry has the most YouTube views of all the songs in the 2021 contest. At the moment, it has almost four times the views of Malta’s song.

Zitti e Buoni has already won a major music award this year. In March, it won the first prize at Sanremo Music Festival 2021.

The experience from Sanremo shows that the public loves the tune. The trouble is that it’s not much loved by critics.

In the Superfinal of Sanremo, 53.53% of the public vote went for Zitti e Buoni. Press jury liked it as well, but not the critics. The song received only slightly over 30% of the critics’ vote.

Who Will Win the 2021 Eurovision Song Contest?

I like Italy’s song. It is a rock song with an 80s vibe that puts you in a good mood the moment you hear it.

However, my taste differs from the taste of Eurovision voters. If you look at the winners from previous years, the Eurovision crowd seems to prefer catchy pop tunes.

And the Italian song is not too catchy. At least, it’s not as catchy as some others, like Malta’s entry, for example.

Even though my heart is going for Italy’s song, my brain tells me it’s Malta that’s going to win the 2021 Eurovision.

  • My Prediction: Malta

Why Should You Fall in Love with Eurovision?

Eurovision betting is a good enough of a reason for any gambler to start obsessing over the contest. The chance to multiply your stake seven-fold (by backing Italy) seems like the right kind of incentive.

Still, if this doesn’t make you fall in love with Eurovision, there are some bonus facts that might make you change your mind.

For instance, Australia is going to take part in this year’s contest, despite being some 14,000 kilometers away from Europe.

Speaking of unlikely contestants, in 2018, Canadian singer Celine Dion represented Switzerland with the song Ne Partez Pas Sans Moi, which ended up winning.

That was only the second win for Switzerland; the first happened at the inaugural Eurovision in 1956, when only seven nations took part.

The country with the most Eurovision wins is Ireland. This is mostly thanks to Johnny Logan, whose songs won on three occasions.

The runner-up in the list of Eurovision-winning countries is Sweden, whose band ABBA won the 1974 Eurovision with the song Waterloo.

The win propelled ABBA to worldwide stardom, making it one of the most successful bands of the 1970s.

Waterloo remains a symbol of Eurovision, often coming at the top in polls on the best songs in the history of the contest.

With 60+ million views, ABBA’s Waterloo is one of the most popular Eurovision songs on YouTube. However, it is not the most popular one – the winner of the 2012 2 Eurovision holds that record.

The song in question is Euphoria, sang by another Swedish artist, Loreen. At the moment of writing this article, the song has more than 90 million views on YouTube.

Is there a song (or songs) at the 2021 Eurovision that can break this record?

Zarko Naric

Zarko Naric – the World's Greatest Sportswriter, according to his grandma.

Zarko started writing for GamblingSites.com in 2019, covering sports like soccer, tennis, and basketball,  as well as some more niche sports like cycling, for example.

In addition to writing news, picks, and blog pieces focused on sports, Zarko’s also been covering politics, TV/music contests, and so on.

More Posts by Zarko Contact Zarko

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