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NFL MVP Betting Guide With Odds and Predictions

Only one team can win the Super Bowl every year, which means fans and bettors of the NFL need something else to hold onto. Tracking some of the most brilliant individual seasons is one way to celebrate the league and stay interested. Crowning the NFL MVP every season makes that happen.

Few seasons can trump what 2018 delivered, as Patrick Mahomes blew everyone away with a crazy 5,000+ yard and 50-touchdown season. His play and production were so explosive that it kept a year where Drew Brees completed 74% of his passes entirely at bay.

The race for the 2019 NFL MVP is already alive and well, and Mahomes returns as the top favorite to defend his crown. For updated 2019 NFL MVP odds, analysis, and NFL MVP predictions, make this your first stop.

Latest NFL MVP Odds

Lamar Jackson-3000
Russell Wilson+1000
Michael Thomas+6600

Patrick Mahomes looks to defend his MVP title and enters 2019 as the tentative favorite at virtually every NFL betting site. That makes sense, as he’s turned into a superstar overnight and is already arguably the most talented passer in the game.

While Mahomes makes sense as the early favorite, repeating as NFL MVP is never easy. There are also several viable contenders and a litany of compelling NFL MVP sleepers for bettors to consider.

This page will help you sort things out as you try to finalize a winning MVP bet, while our NFL MVP picks below should give you insight as to who our top NFL writers peg as the likely winner.

NFL MVP Predictions

Predicting the yearly NFL MVP winner is often a lot easier said than done. Mahomes was certainly on the radar as a fun sleeper going into 2018, but he was far from a favorite.

That being said, the MVP award usually goes to the top-performing signal-caller, and it’s often been a handful of players that have won. Bettors will want to consider that, and top NFL writers Michael Wynn and Noah Davis are factoring that into their latest 2019 NFL MVP predictions.

  • Current Prediction (Michael Wynn): Lamar Jackson
  • Last Updated: December 20th

The Ravens have the best record in football and their quarterback leads the NFL having accounted for 40 touchdowns. Oh yeah, Lamar Jackson also set the single-season record for most rushing yards by a quarterback, and he’s still got two more games to pad all of these ridiculous stats.

Go ahead and engrave Lamar Jackson’s name into the trophy – the 2019 NFL MVP award is a done deal.

  • Current Prediction (Noah Davis): Lamar Jackson
  • Last Updated: December 20th

Russell Wilson is the only guy that can possibly stop the Lamar Jackson MVP train, but it’s not happening. This dude has dropped Madden numbers on the league and he’s done it with a smile. Hand’em the trophy, already.

Previous NFL MVP Predictions and Analysis

December 5th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson’s relentless style of play might not be sustainable in the long-haul, but what he is achieving in 2019 simply can’t be denied. Jackson hasn’t thrown a pick since October 6th, he’s already thrown 25 touchdowns, and he’s basically a shoo-in to end the year ranked among the top 10 in rushing yards. Just hand this kid the MVP Trophy already and be done with it.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Lamar Jackson

I covered this recently, as Jackson’s MVP odds have spiked to -275 at Sportsbetting.ag. Russell Wilson is now his only realistic remaining threat. It’s going to take something crazy to prevent Jackson from winning this thing, though, as he’s on pace for well over 3,000+ passing yards, 30+ passing TDs and is on pace to shatter the single-season rushing yardage record for a quarterback.

November 21st

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Lamar Jackson

Christian McCaffrey might be the most reliable player in the NFL, but it’s becoming evident that Lamar Jackson is the most dynamic. He’s on pace to shatter Michael Vick’s record from most rushing yards by a quarterback in a single season, and his team is cruising to a division title. Russell Wilson and CMC will be in the discussion, but Lamar Jackson is the guy currently leading the conversation.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Lamar Jackson

Just when I give into Russell Wilson as the 2019 NFL MVP favorite, Lamar Jackson tops the Patriots and smokes the Texans. For what it’s worth, he also won a head-to-head battle with Russell Wilson and I can only assume is the best at everything that’s existed – ever. Lamar FTW.

November 7th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Russell Wilson

I’d like to stick with CMC as my MVP pick, but it’s hard to argue with the eye-popping numbers that the Seahawks quarterback is putting up. He leads the league with 22 touchdown passes, and his 22:1 TD:INT ratio is ridiculously impressive. Most importantly – absolutely nothing suggests this dude is going to slow down anytime soon.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Russell Wilson

I drank the Russell Wilson kool-aid back in October and while my support has waned in the past two weeks, I’m back on his bandwagon. That five-touchdown OT thriller vaulted him back into the top-two for me. Beating the 49ers on MNF might seal it.

October 17th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Christian McCaffrey

I know the NFL doesn’t typically hand out this award to running backs, but there’s nothing “typical” about anything that Christian McCaffrey does on the gridiron. In a day and age where the majority of teams are converting to a “running back by committee” approach, CMC doesn’t come off the field. Already with 9 TDs and 923 yards from scrimmage, Chris Johnson’s NFL record of 2,509 yards from scrimmage (2009) is in serious jeopardy.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Russell Wilson

Maybe it’s his ankle or something else, but Patrick Mahomes hasn’t looked like a legit MVP in the last three games. That’s troubling with Christian McCaffrey and Russell Wilson seriously giving this guy a run for his money. Wilson gets my bet right now, as he’s put up 14 touchdowns against 0 picks and has Seattle looking dangerous.

October 3rd

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Patrick Mahomes

Anyone who doesn’t think Patrick Mahomes is the front-runner to win his second consecutive MVP award is just being a hater. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and he eclipsed 1,500 passing yards before October even arrived.

I’d call those numbers extraordinary, but throwing for 375+ yards in a game is just another day in the office for this cat.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes hit a productivity wall in week four, but nobody did enough to catch him and his first three weeks were of legendary nature. He’s the easy favorite to win the 2019 NFL MVP until something wild happens.

September 19th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Patrick Mahomes

The reigning NFL MVP threw has thrown for 300+ yards during the first half in each of the first two games. After accounting for 5,097 passing yards and 50 passing TDs during his first year as the starter, it’s conceivable he eclipses both of those totals in year two.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Patrick Mahomes

With Drew Brees set to miss six games or more, he won’t be in the running for league MVP. I think we’re really down to 3-4 realistic candidates, but so far Patrick Mahomes has done nothing to make me want to bet against him.

September 5th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Carson Wentz

My original pick isn’t going to pan out considering Andrew Luck called it quits. I’m confident Patrick Mahomes is going to play lights out. But give me the Eagles starting QB. Despite getting paid a huge chunk of money during the offseason, I think Carson Wentz plays with a heavy chip on his shoulder in 2019. My guess is he balls out in the process.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Drew Brees

I see no reason to go away from Brees. The narrative is going to support him all year and he’s still leading a supremely talented team. If Brees puts up numbers anywhere close to what he did a year ago, he’s a lock in my mind.

July 28th

  • Previous Prediction (Michael Wynn): Andrew Luck

Tom Brady might be the most cerebral quarterback we have ever seen, and Patrick Mahomes has the strongest arm in the game, hands down.

I see Andrew Luck as a blend of the two, and the Colts might have the best offensive line in football. Here’s a guy who tossed 39 touchdowns and threw for 4,593 yards in 2018, and all signs are pointing toward Indy being on the uptick.

  • Previous Prediction (Noah Davis): Drew Brees

I’m not a Saints fan, but 2019 does feel like it’s all coming up New Orleans. The Saints have a burning fire deep inside, and part of that stems from the consistent play of Brees. He’d have nabbed this award for the first time if not for Patrick Mahomes. He’ll run it back and finally make it happen.

NFL MVP Related Content

Past NFL MVP Winners

History can repeat itself in the NFL, as the league MVP is voted for by regular people. They factor in historical campaigns, broken records, competition, team success, and so much more.

Due to the quarterback position being so challenging and being held in such high regard, it’s understandably been the position that has dominated this award in the past. While past NFL MVP winners don’t necessarily dictate how future winners will play out, looking back is both interesting and perhaps helpful for NFL MVP betting.

The Associated Press is known as the main award presenter for all NFL awards and has been handing out the hardware for the NFL MVP since 1957. To keep things relevant for today’s modern NFL game, here’s a look back at the last 25 NFL MVP winners.

  • 2018: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
  • 2017: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
  • 2016: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
  • 2015: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
  • 2014: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
  • 2013: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
  • 2012: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
  • 2011: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
  • 2010: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
  • 2009: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
  • 2008: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
  • 2007: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
  • 2006: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
  • 2005: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle Seahawks
  • 2004: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
  • 2003: Peyton Manning/Steve McNair
  • 2002: Rich Gannon, QB, Oakland Raiders
  • 2001: Kurt Warner, QB, St. Louis Rams
  • 2000: Marshall Faulk, RB, St. Louis Rams
  • 1999: Kurt Warner, RB, St. Louis Rams
  • 1998: Terrell Davis, RB, Denver Broncos
  • 1997: Brett Favre/Barry Sanders
  • 1996: Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay Packers
  • 1995: Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay Packers
  • 1994: Steve Young, QB, San Francisco 49ers

To suggest quarterbacks have owned the NFL MVP award in recent memory (19 of the last 25 winners) is an understatement. Two of those awards are shared, but in the past 25 years, the NFL MVP has been given to a non-quarterback just six times.

This award goes to players with elite statistical seasons and/or players that the best teams (and also the league) just simply couldn’t do without. That is one big reason why nobody should be too shocked that of the past 25 winners, almost half (12) are made up of living legends in Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Brett Favre.

Checking in on the past NFL MVP winners can help you bet on the present and the future. Bettors will also want to factor in numerous aspects, however, which gives way to our NFL MVP betting strategy section.

NFL MVP Betting Strategy

Betting on the NFL MVP is pretty simple if you embrace the idea that this is a quarterback award. It really takes a truly special season by a non-passer to take home the hardware, and there have even been several amazing seasons overlooked by running backs, wide receivers, and even defensive players in the past.

If a non-quarterback is going to win, though, they probably need to break some type of record or at least get close. Barry Sanders threatened the single-season rushing record in 1997 and had to settle for a rare tie with Brett Favre.

Guys like Shaun Alexander, LT, and Adrian Peterson gave us rare running back winners, but they had to top 2,000+ rushing yards or approach 30 total touchdowns to do it.

One look at the makeup of the past NFL MVP winners tells a pretty clear picture. Just look at how the NFL MVP winners are broken down by position over the years.

  • Quarterback – 45
  • Running Back – 17
  • Linebacker – 2
  • Defensive Lineman – 2
  • Kicker – 1

Even dating back to 1957, the NFL MVP award was largely given to quarterbacks. There was certainly an era of football where teams relied mostly on running the ball and defense, however, and those numbers actually deflate the emphasis on passing we see in today’s game.

Due to that, if you’re betting on the NFL MVP, you may even need to rely more on recent numbers rather than looking at numbers from before the 1990s.

Whether you’ve brushed up on NFL MVP history in the past or not, it’s always interesting to be reminded of the positions that have never won the awards. No matter the amazing, record-breaking campaigns, no tight end or wide receiver has ever claimed an MVP trophy in the NFL.

No defensive player in the secondary has won, either.

This is a prestigious award, but it also pays tribute to the prolific, high-impact players. It’s a near-certainty we will never see an offensive lineman win the award, Mark Moseley will surely go down as the only kicker to ever win the award, and it’s going to be extremely rare to see defensive players win.

In an offensive league, the focus should be on that first wide receiver that could do enough to win, the running back who sets new records, or the top quarterback that rules the league.

Start your NFL MVP betting process off with the best quarterback options and then sprinkle in some running backs you think could enjoy some historic campaigns. That may be as wide as you want to cast that net, however.

Here’s a quick-hitting list of NFL MVP betting tips to consider.

  • Bet on quarterbacks
  • Factor in history
  • Pay attention to odds
  • Consider expert opinion
  • Target quality value
  • Shop around at betting sites

Beyond breaking the award down from a historical or tendency perspective, bettors should also pay attention to NFL MVP odds, what the top football experts think, and also track the best players on the teams that are most likely to succeed.

In that same breath, you might want to consider how MVPs have fared when it comes to chasing down a Super Bowl. That ties into Super Bowl betting if you embrace it, as only 13 NFL MVPs have ever gone onto win the Super Bowl. The last to do so was Kurt Warner in 1999.

Bettors will also want to shop around for the best prices based on who they think will win in a given year. At the same time, targeting solid value bets and even adding in a couple of sleeper or longshot bets is encouraged.

In summary, consider past winners, NFL MVP odds, and target players you think will enjoy big statistical seasons. Ideally you also land some solid betting value in the process and can convert a winning wager.

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