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AFC South Division Odds and Predictions

Truth be told, all four teams in the AFC South think they can win the division in 2019. Three of the four squads finished with winning records in 2018, and the Jaguars finally have a quarterback they can rely on during crunch time.

Anyone interested in learning about or betting on the AFC South Division has landed on the perfect page.

Latest AFC South Odds

Houston Texans-1500
Tennessee Titans+800

For a look at more NFL odds and a way to capture value in a surplus of other wagers, visit our NFL odds page that is regularly updated.

AFC South Predictions

  • Current Prediction (Michael Wynn): Tennessee Titans
  • Last Updated: December 20th

I’m going against the grain here and picking the Titans to nab this division. I understand that means they have to beat the Saints in Week 16 and defeat the Texans in Houston the following week, but I think it all comes together for Mike Vrabel in the end.

If and when the Texans lose in Tampa Bay tomorrow, this prediction won’t seem like it’s such a far reach.

  • Current Prediction (Noah Davis): Houston Texans
  • Last Updated: December 20th

Houston stole the first meeting with the Titans, just as I expected them to. That puts them in the driver’s seat to win the division and I think they’ll hold on to do just that.

Previous AFC South Predictions and Analysis

December 5th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Tennessee Titans

I’m going out on a limb and predicting that the Titans will hoist the crown in the AFC South. Tennessee controls their own destiny if they can take care of business in December, which starts with beating the Raiders in Week 14. After that, the Titans face Houston twice over the final three weeks.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Houston Texans

The AFC South has been an ugly dance all year long, but Houston’s emphatic win over the Pats confirmed what I’ve been thinking for weeks; they’re the class of this division. Deshaun Watson and co. still need to finish the job, but they have a full game lead and are rounding into form.

November 21st

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Houston Texans

I still see the Colts sneaking into the postseason via the wild card, but the Texans are in the driver’s seat to pull away in this division. Of course, that all changes if Indy can beat Houston tonight on Thursday Night Football. In the end, I see this coming down to a race to get to 10 wins. Whoever gets there first will be hosting a Playoff game in January.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Houston Texans

I hopped on the Texans two weeks back and I’m here to stick with them. Deshaun Watson has seen the world crumble around him, but he’s still as dangerous as anyone and he has enough weapons to make it work. The Colts continue to hang around, but something about them feels unsustainable.

November 7th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Indianapolis Colts

I’ll probably catch some grief for sticking with Indy when the Texans clearly look like the most complete team, but that’s ok. After Houston travels to Baltimore in Week 10, they face the Colts and the Patriots in back-to-back weeks. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has cupcakes like the Dolphins and Jaguars looming on their schedule, plus Jacoby Brissett’s ankle injury isn’t anything to be overly concerned about.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Houston Texans

I finally bought into the Texans the last time I updated my AFC South prediction and I’m standing pat. The Colts are probably the only team they have to worry about, but for me, it comes down to this: Jacoby Brissett or Deshaun Watson. Give me all of the Deshaun.

October 17th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Indianapolis Colts

Picking Tennessee to win this division two weeks ago surely looks silly now – even I’ll admit that. But while most will want to go ahead and crown the Texans with the division, I’m going back to my original pick – the Indianapolis Colts. Coming off of a bye week following their victory at Arrowhead Stadium, Indy should be locked and loaded to hit their season stride.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Houston Texans

It took me six weeks to fully commit to the Texans, but here I am. They’ve looked explosive on offense all year, but it took a big road win over the Chiefs to convince me. Houston is a real threat in the AFC and I’ll be shocked if they give up the AFC South to the other pedestrian franchises that occupy it.

October 3rd

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Tennessee Titans

A four-way tie at 2-2 means the AFC South is officially up for grabs. I was disappointed in the way Jacoby Brissett performed in Week 4, and I’m starting to have reservations on whether or not he can lead the Colts to 10+ wins.

On the flip side, the Titans have a sound defense, and Mike Vrabel is starting to discover he’s got some pretty substantial weapons on the other side of the ball.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Jacksonville Jaguars

Boy is the AFC South a bloodbath of mediocrity. Nobody seems poised to run away with this thing, which is the main reason why I’m just following the man, the myth, the legend into the fray. Garnder Minshew II is just so much fun and he’s lit a fire under the Jaguars. Nobody can know if it’ll last, but golly, I sure as heck want it to.

September 19th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Indianapolis Colts

The Texans host the Titans in Week 17, and there’s a decent chance that game could determine who wins the AFC South. At the same time, Indy showed a lot of heart in their road victory at Tennessee in Week 2. To me, the Colts looks like a team who is ready to prove a lot of doubters wrong.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Houston Texans

Andrew Luck’s retirement and Nick Foles injury have me down to two teams in this division. Tennessee is a gritty bunch, but nobody in the AFC South can put up points like the Texans. It’s Houston or bust in this division.

September 5th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Indianapolis Colts

The easy thing is to switch my pick from the Colts to the Texans, but I have faith in Jacoby Brissett. Either that or I’m convinced that the best offensive line in football combined with a bunch of ball hawkers on defense is enough to carry Indy to the finish line.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Jacksonville Jaguars

July 28th

  • Prediction (Michael Wynn): Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck is finally healthy, and Chris Ballard is an absolute genius. We’ll see a high-octane offense in Indy and a dynamic defense that’s ready to wreak some havoc.

  • Prediction (Noah Davis): Indianapolis Colts

This is definitely a wide-open division, but it’s still Indy’s to lose. The Colts didn’t even hit their stride until falling into a 1-5 hole last year, and they have one of the best offenses in football. With Andrew Luck just getting into a groove, this team is set up to be awfully scary.

AFC South Related Blogs

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Early 2022 AFC South Analysis (Michael Wynn)

The AFC South is the most interesting division to me of all. Due to the fact that each and every team has reason to believe they can emerge, there will be no shortage of drama once the games get underway.

Given that the Colts won nine of their final ten games to surge into a wild card slot, it’s understandable that the safest NFL sportsbooks online have installed Indy as the odds-on favorite to win their division. However, after an 11-win season and a division crown, it’s understandable if Bill O’Brien and the Texans feel like they are the best team in the AFC South.

For more on how the Jaguars plan on scheming around Nick Foles and what Tennessee did to improve during the offseason, follow along with the team-by-team breakdowns below.

Indianapolis Colts  

You can’t talk about the Colts’ recent turnaround without raving about the job that Chris Ballard has done. GMs around the league ought to start looking at what the Indianapolis GM is eating for breakfast because Ballard has a unique formula for uncovering hidden talent.

Sure, Andrew Luck’s health is absolutely correlated to how far this team can go. That could never be denied. Nonetheless, this team’s success is a direct reflection of how the team has been built.

Looking back to April of 2018, the Colts selected Quenton Nelson in Round 1 and Darius Leonard in Round 2. Both men not only were named to the All-Rookie Team, but they were both honored as First Team All-Pros.

Looking ahead toward the upcoming season, it looks like Chris Ballard has worked his magic again.

Rock Ya-Sin and Ben Banogu are massive talents on defense who will positively impact the squad right from the get-go. In need of a speedy receiver, the Colts snagged Parris Campbell at the tail end of the second round.

Devin Funchess was inked to line up opposite of T.Y. Hilton, and Justin Houston joined the team after walking out of Kansas City.

Bravo, Chris Ballard. You have once again set the Colts up to be the cream of the crop in the AFC South.

Houston Texans  

Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins are as potent of a QB/WR combo as we have in this league, and J.J. Watt is still a premier defensive end. Houston’s secondary will be without Tyrann Mathieu and Kareem Jackson after the defensive backs bolted during free agency, but there is a silver lining.

The door that was opened from Mathieu and Jackson’s departures is what made room to bring in Bradley Roby and Tashaun Gipson. As long as Jadeveon Clowney is happy and J.J. Watt is healthy, the group coached by Romeo Crennel should be “A-OK.”

The passing game is in good hands as Will Fuller should be ready to go once week 1 rolls around, but the running game is where the questions come pouring in. Lamar Miller has a lot of mileage on his tires, Alfred Blue is now in Jacksonville, and it remains to be seen whether or not D’Onta Foreman pans out.

The Texans won’t go away without a fight, but when comparing them to the Colts, they come up short in almost all aspects of the game.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Doug Marrone probably needs to win at least eight or nine games if he wants to keep his job, and it’s about time for Jalen Ramsey to focus on playing football instead of stirring the pot with the media.

We’ve all seen what Nick Foles can do when called in as a savior, but now we’ll see how effective Foles can be for the duration of a full NFL season. There’s no anxiety regarding Nick’s arm strength or how fast he can get the ball out of the pocket, but his accuracy and decision making are without a doubt a concern.

Leonard Fournette could do the Jags a big favor if he is able to log 20+ touches and not miss any time, but one of the receivers is going to need to step up and run with his opportunity. Marqise Lee could be that guy as long as he is fully recovered from the ACL injury that forced him to miss all of 2018.

With that being said, Jacksonville will largely benefit if Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook can continue progressing.

Foles was really the only “big fish” that swam to Jacksonville during free agency, while multiple big names left the team in March. The loss of Malik Jackson would sting a lot more had Josh Allen not fallen into the Jags’ lap with the seventh pick of the draft.

If you want to bet on the Jaguars to win the AFC South, know that you’re taking a big gamble.

Tennessee Titans

Are you searching for a sleeper that can win their division? Look no further because the Tennessee Titans might just be that squad. It’s a bit shocking that after a 9-7 campaign during Mike Vrabel’s first year at the helm, the bookies at Bovada.lv have disrespected the Titans greatly.

Listing them at +650 to end the season atop the AFC South seems a bit exaggerated, but maybe it’s because they think the Colts are that strong.

Not to put all the pressure on the shoulders of Marcus Mariota, but all of the pressure is on Marcus Mariota.

Ryan Tannehill is waiting in the wings in the event Marcus doesn’t perform favorably, but in a perfect world, all the former Dolphins QB does in 2019 is stand on the sidelines holding a clipboard.

Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis give the Titans “thunder and lightning” coming out of the backfield, and the wide receiver room received a couple of major boosts. Adam Humphries is quietly one of the best slot receivers in the game today, and many touts hailed A.J. Brown as the most “NFL ready” WR in the entire 2019 draft class.

If Delanie Walker can contribute like we know he is capable of, throwing down a wager on the Titans to win the division might just be worth your while.

Initial AFC South Pick

Despite boasting about the Tennessee rising, the Indianapolis Colts are still the team to beat in the AFC South. It’s not ideal that we have to lay money if we want to back Andrew Luck and company, but perhaps that’s a sign of how good Indy really is.

We shouldn’t forget that it was just two seasons ago in which the Jags came oh-so-close to defeating the Patriots and advancing to the Super Bowl. Now equipped with a QB who actually deserves to be a starter, there is no telling how far Jacksonville can go.

Considering that Houston won the division in 2018 and has a young core that is still developing, the +275 price attached to the Texans is going to be tempting. We can’t argue if that’s the direction you intend on going, but know that our pick is with Indianapolis.

Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts
    -105

Previous AFC South Winners

Established in 2002 after the Houston Texans joined the league, the Colts have without a doubt been the class of this division. Indy can thank Peyton Manning for seven of their nine AFC South titles, although Andrew Luck brought home a pair of division titles in 2013 and 2014.

The list below sheds light on exactly how many AFC South crowns each team has on their resume.

  • Indianapolis Colts 9
  • Houston Texans 5
  • Tennessee Titans 2
  • Jacksonville Jaguars 1

The Titans have ended the year atop the AFC South standings twice before, only the most recent time came in 2008. Over the past ten seasons, it’s pretty much been either the Colts or the Texans who get to host a playoff game in early January.

  • 2018: Houston Texans 11-5
  • 2017: Jacksonville Jaguars 10-6
  • 2016: Houston Texans 9-7
  • 2015: Houston Texans 9-7
  • 2014: Indianapolis Colts 11-5
  • 2013: Indianapolis Colts 11-5
  • 2012: Houston Texans 12-4
  • 2011: Houston Texans 10-6
  • 2010: Indianapolis Colts 10-6
  • 2009: Indianapolis Colts 14-2

You shouldn’t feel bad if you can’t remember the last time Tennessee was in the postseason; we promise you aren’t alone. Kerry Collins was leading the way, and the “1-2 punch” handling the backfield duties was Chris Johnson and LenDale White.

Don’t let the Titans’ absence on this list scare you away from thinking they can make some noise. This will be the most dynamic supporting cast Marcus Mariota has had since his days in Eugene playing for Chip Kelly.

Those who think the AFC South is going to be a two-horse race between the Colts and the Texans may want to pump the brakes. Even though the Jags only won five games in 2018, they aren’t approaching the upcoming year as a season to try and rebuild.

They want to win right now.

Given the intense competition that should play out in 2019, it could very well take a minimum of 11 games to win the division.

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